Nets ML (+180)
Bucks vs. Nets NBA Playoffs Game 2 Preview and Best Bet (Archive)
Silenced on the offensive end, and deprived of James Harden, the Brooklyn Nets managed to breeze past the Milwaukee Bucks in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Semifinals and have their eyes on a decently commanding 2-0 lead. At home, Brooklyn gets the slight edge odds-wise, but could they be prone to an upset, handing over home court advantage to the Bucks? There’s value to be found here, and we’ll help you find it. Here’s where you should be looking at the top-rated sportsbooks.
Milwaukee Bucks vs. Brooklyn Nets
Thursday, June 4, 2021 – 7:30 PM EDT at Barclays Center
Where Did the Offense Go?
Well, the question is simple, and there’s a simple answer. Brooklyn’s offense was absolutely rolling in the first round when it cruised past the Celtics in five games last round, but suddenly things don’t seem so easy. The Nets posted a 109.5 offensive rating in Game 1, after scoring 128 points per 100 possessions against Boston. It’s not really all that surprising, considering the Bucks have one of the best defenses in the league, allowing just 95.4 points per 100 possessions in their opening-round win over the Heat. With that being said, both of those numbers were flawed.
The Nets seemed to improve their defense just a bit with a 115.9 efficiency rating in the opening round, but they had the benefit of facing a Boston offense that was simply without answers. Their offense also looked stunning, but it was versus a defense that was out of gas and shorthanded. It was tough to get a read on how the Nets were looking, so Game 1 was always going to be critical to watch for bettors.
What we learned is that the Nets are overmatched on the glass, grabbing just 45.6% of available rebounds in Game 1 after a poor rebounding performance against the Celtics and a poor season on the glass. We also learned the Nets’ offense can be slowed by this Bucks defense. Don’t be fooled by the Bucks’ bad shooting night, either — it was just that, a bad night. Milwaukee will hit its shots sooner rather than later, and should be back to normal in Game 2. Brooklyn is going to need a lot of effort on defense and on the glass, and it also might need Harden to get this game. The Beard will be missing from the proceedings with a right hamstring injury.
Can the Offense Get Back?
Yep, another team is struggling on the offensive end. Milwaukee has lived all year on its threes and its run-and-gun offense, but went just 6 for 30 from distance and posted a 102.9 offensive rating despite still pushing the pace to 104.5.
Donte DiVincenzo’s injury certainly hurts here, and the guard will be out again for this one with a torn ligament in his left ankle. It also doesn’t help that no one did anything aside from Giannis Antetokounmpo and his 34 points. Bryn Forbes was huge against the Heat, but only managed five points on 2-of-8 shooting. Khris Middleton had perhaps the worst game of his career with a 6-for-23 shooting performance. There’s so much upward mobility here, and so much to tell us that this simply won’t happen any more.
The Bucks are due for some positive regression in the offensive department, and any sort of improvement should be enough to net them a win over the Nets given how well their defense has played. The Nets were only 38.5% from three, and given the fact that they shot 39 triples and that the Bucks have been huge on the defensive end, I’m not sure that much will change.
Too much can go right here for Milwaukee, and that is the reason why I see them coming through this game with flying colors. Expect more shots to fall for the Bucks, and the defense that has driven them to this point to continue dominating. Without James Harden, things will be that much more difficult for the Nets on offense, and with Antetokounmpo spending more time on Kevin Durant, it might feel like an uphill battle for Brooklyn.
NBA Pick: Nets ML (+180) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
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