Hawks +5(-110)
Bucks vs. Hawks NBA Playoffs Game 3 Picks and Odds Breakdown (Archive)
The Eastern Conference Finals will shift to Atlanta after the Bucks evened the series on Friday night. Will the home-cookin’ help Atlanta or will the Bucks be buoyed by their blowout of the Hawks? Let’s analyze this Game 3 showdown and keep cashing our NBA picks!
Milwaukee Bucks vs. Atlanta Hawks
Sunday, June 27, 2021 – 8:30 PM ET at State Farm Arena
Game 1 didn’t go as planned for the Bucks, and even the oddsmakers at the best online sportsbooks were shocked to see the team they had installed as eight-point road dogs dribble away with a 116-113 victory. Despite the superstars from Milwaukee like Giannis Antetokounmpo, Khris Middleton, and Jrue Holiday getting all of the pre-series ink, it was Atlanta’s young gun, Trae Young, stealing the spotlight with a herculean 48-point effort in the Hawks’ Game 1 win.
But based on the results from Friday night, that loss didn’t sit well with the Bucks. The consensus NBA odds at tipoff revealed they were slightly bigger favorites in Game 2 despite their loss two days earlier. Those who had faith that the Bucks would be locked and loaded to not only win but win big were rewarded as the 8.5 point home chalk steamrolled their way to a 125-91 thrashing of their Eastern Conference Finals foes.
Giannis and Holiday combined for 47 points as the Milwaukee defense clamped down hard as evidenced by Trae Young’s precipitous fall from grace in scoring just 15 points and matching his career-high nine turnovers. After it became clear the Hawks would have no chance of emerging with a Game 2 victory, head coach Nate McMillan pulled his 22-year-old superstar with a little over three minutes remaining in the third quarter.
"I take complete responsibility for what happened tonight," Young said. "Taking care of the ball is something I’ve got to be better at. I will be better at it. It’s really, they just upped their physicality tonight. We’ve got to do the same."
Bucks Aggressiveness Key to Victory
It was clear the Bucks would be relying on an all-out defensive blitz in Game 2 rather than relying on their offense to shoulder the burden of outscoring their opponent. The defensive effort paid dividends as Milwaukee never trailed on Friday night and caused Young to commit eight turnovers in the first half alone. The Greek Freak was driving to the basket and living in the paint without much pushback which made his night much easier.
"When they’re aggressive and (officials) don’t call it, nights like tonight happen," Young said.
Jrue Holiday spoke to how the Bucks contained the uber-talented Young in Game 2, "Last game he {Young} was living in the paint, had a lot of floaters (and) those are pretty much layups for him. We didn’t really want that to get him started early. And I don’t think he went to the free-throw line much tonight, which is also pretty big for us."
Wanna Make a Bet?
These teams have locked horns five times this season with the Bucks winning and covering three of five games. In two of those five contests, Atlanta is 1-1 straight up and against the number when playing at home. So, the question is whether the Hawks can rebound from a hellacious loss after a stunning victory?
If we take a peek at how these teams have fared at home and on the road, we can see that Atlanta is 28-13 straight up and 26-15 against the number at the State Farm Arena while Milwaukee is 23-19 straight up and 17-25 ATS on the highway. I believe it is also reasonable to assume Hawks’ coach, Nate McMillan, will make certain he puts Trae Young in a better spot and focuses on Giannis down low so he isn’t able to roam with reckless abandon in the paint the way he did in Game 2.
And while both teams rested their starters for much of the fourth quarter on Friday night, we should know that the Hawks were dominated on the glass in Game 2 with the Bucks outrebounding them 47-34. Conversely, it was the Hawks claiming a 51-45 edge in rebounds in Game 1. The long and short of it is that Atlanta can play with the best, and the Bucks qualify in that regard. Lastly, we should also note the Hawks are also a much better team at home while the Bucks have struggled on the road.
If we put it all in a blender, we see that the very early line over at BetOnline shows the Hawks getting a five-point head start and I think that’s too tempting to refuse. However, it wouldn’t shock me if the squares began sending it in on the Bucks, causing this line to rise. Nevertheless, I’ll take my chances and lock in the Hawks with the points.
NBA Pick: Hawks +5 (-110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.