After a thrilling extra-innings affair on Wednesday, the Brewers and Cardinals — two bitter NL Central rivals — will do it again in the midwest on Thursday. Both teams will come in hungry, entering the series on hot streaks and battling for postseason positioning, and it’s evident based on the way Wednesday went.
Down to their final couple of outs, the Brewers tied the game in the ninth and would go on to win in the 10th thanks to a crazy inning accented by a Christian Yelich bunt single to drive in a run. Will more craziness ensue, or are we set for a one-sided affair? Without further ado, let’s take a look into how you should be wagering over at the top-rated sportsbooks.
Thursday, August 19, 2021 – 7:45 PM EDT at Busch Stadium
The NL Central seemed like a race that was up for grabs just a month or so ago, but Milwaukee has taken the bull by the horns. It now leads the second-place Cincinnati Reds by seven and a half games in the division, with the Cardinals trailing even further behind at 12 games back. The Brewers have done it with a surge of offense following the acquisitions of Willy Adames, Eduardo Escobar and, to a lesser extent, Rowdy Tellez. A team that was once one of the very worst in most offensive categories now sits right near the top.
Since the All-Star break, the Brewers rank fifth in all of baseball with a 113 wRC+, striking out just 20.4% of the time and posting a respectable .188 ISO. It’s a real stark contrast to the first half, which saw them rank 27th with a 87 wRC+, striking out 25.9% of the time. This rise in contact — from 73.9% of swings resulting in a bat on the ball in the first half to 77.7% in the second half — is the biggest reason for the team’s resurgence at the plate. You can credit the new names we touched on above, but it’s been a real team effort in this department. Guys like Jace Peterson and Luis Urias have broken out, and even Yelich seems to be in the mood, with a clutch bunt last night helping provide some necessary cushion
Pitching has always been a strength for Milwaukee, which is the big reason it was positioned so well in the first place despite some awful offensive numbers, and it should be once again on Thursday night with Brandon Woodruff on the mound. The righty had a short stumble in July (most guys would call a 3.56 ERA in a month a success) but has recovered over the last two starts, allowing just one earned run in nine total innings. Walks have been an issue for him this year, but the Cardinals rank 15th in that department since the All-Star Break.
It doesn’t have to be over for the Cardinals, whose hopes of taking the division are slim, but who sit just four games out of the wild card in the National League. The last 10 games, where St. Louis has been the winner in seven, are the big reason for this.
We touched on the Cardinals’ pedestrian walk rate above since the break, and the rest of their offensive numbers fall in line here. A .758 OPS is good, not great, and a 23% strikeout rate is flat-out bad. While there have been moments for this offense, it has seen guys like Harrison Bader and Yadier Molina fade just a little bit, with the load left to be carried by Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado.
Jon Lester will pitch this one, and that’s probably the worst case scenario for the Cardinals. He enters with a 5.20 xERA and just a 14% strikeout rate, damning numbers against a team that already doesn’t strike out a lot and is good at making contact. Lester’s 8.4% walk rate is also of concern; he’s pretty much been bad in every area. With Lester going, I find it hard to trust the Brewers in any capacity. Jack Flaherty probably presented St. Louis with its best shot in this series, and now I expect this to be pretty lopsided for my MLB picks.
MLB Pick: Brewers First Five -0.5 (-140) with BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.