The Braves are heating back up after jumping the Phillies and Mets in the NL East and just dusted the San Francisco Giants over the weekend, taking two of three off the NL West leaders. Now, their heat will be tested against the defending champions, who continue to gain ground in the division race but have hit poorly of late. Despite that, Los Angeles still enters as a massive favorite with Drew Smyly on the hill for Atlanta.
Is that fair, though? How much is truly between these teams? Can we pick out a winner here, or should we target the total? Without further ado, let’s take a look into how you should be wagering over at the top-rated sportsbooks.
Monday, August 30, 2021 – 10:10 PM EDT at Dodger Stadium
The Atlanta Braves have established themselves as the team to beat in the NL East and looked unstoppable going on a nine-game winning streak this month. What followed was a couple losses to the Yankees which seemed to sour the mood.
No need to fear, though — the Braves took the weekend series against the Giants yesterday with a commanding 9-0 win over the Giants — their worst defeat of 2021. It put a bow on what’s been an incredible couple of weeks for Atlanta, which ranks 10th in baseball over that span with a 105 wRC+. In that time, the Braves have struck out just 20.7% of the time and walked at an impressive 10.5% clip. There are plenty of good at-bats being had here, and if that ISO grows from .176, there will be serious trouble. We saw that play out on Sunday.
Despite matching up with a lefty — a spot that hasn’t been kind to the Braves this year — I think these bats can provide something. The acquisitions of Jorge Soler and Adam Duvall at the deadline have given this team a new approach in that split and have made more games winnable.
Speaking of lefties, the Braves will throw Drew Smyly here at the Dodgers. He’s done a decent job of limiting quality contact this year, and while his strikeout rate is low his chase rate has been high. He’s getting there as a back-end starter, and you could do worse.
It just so happens that the Dodgers’ worst nightmare is a left-handed pitcher. As a team, they’re hitting just .232 off of southpaws with a 23.5% strikeout rate and a poor 98 wRC+. This team knows it has an issue against lefties, and has even outwardly acknowledged it, but still has not found any sort of solution here.
The Dodgers do have some bats that can hit lefties, and should get Mookie Betts back in the middle of their order tonight. It’s still pretty grim, and the list of middling lefties to shut down the Dodgers this year seems to grow by the day.
Julio Urias is a lefty, but he’s not middling. He’s up near the top of the league in most tracking data, with an elite 29.3% hard-hit rate. He’s a fly ball pitcher who makes it very difficult to do damage off of him with the limited exit velocity you get, and his strikeout rate has jumped over 26%. He’s a very complete pitcher and continues to grow in confidence.
The Braves aren’t getting enough love here for me, and I think they’re very worth a shot on the moneyline tonight. The Dodgers are always a good fade against lefties, but the offense has been in a bad way over the last couple of weeks which makes them a fantastic fade on Monday’s slate. Smyly hasn’t been the best, but he also has done a very admirable job in the last two months with no more than three earned runs in any start.
The Braves’ power bats are starting to wake up, and I think they can help Atlanta get yet another win here. L.A. shouldn’t have much success at the dish, making life easier on Smyly and more difficult for the Dodgers.
MLB Pick: Braves ML +190 at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.