NFC East Division rivals face off when the Buffalo Bills head south to Florida to take on the Miami Dolphins. The Bills are favored by NFL odds, but are they the right NFL pick?
Sunday, September 19, 2021 – 01:00 PM EDT at Hard Rock Stadium
The Miami Dolphins beat their division rival New England Patriots to start the season 1-0. Cornerback Xavien Howard made a crucial interception to seal the victory. Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa continued his winning ways for the Dolphins even with average statistics. Tagovailoa was 16-27 for 202 yards with a touchdown and an interception. He had a rushing touchdown as well.
Rookie wide receiver Jaylen Waddle had a great opening game with four receptions for 61 yards and one touchdown. WR DeVante Parker had 4 receptions for 81 yards and RB Myles Gaskin had 5 receptions for 27 yards out of the backfield. While these are all fine numbers, the credit for this win goes to head coach Brian Flores and the Miami Dolphins defense.
The Dolphins had held rookie quarterback Mac Jones and the Patriots offense to only 16 points. The Dolphins forced 2 crucial turnovers, the Xavien Howard interception and a Damien Harris fumble recovery with less than 5 minutes to go.
This sealed the game for the Dolphins. While the Dolphins have put nice weapons around Tua, the heart and soul of this team is the defense. The Dolphins will need to shut down the Bills in order to have a chance to win on Sunday.
The Buffalo Bills came into the season as a trendy Super Bowl pick to come out of the AFC. The Bills lost their week 1 game 23-16 to the Pittsburgh Steelers. Quarterback Josh Allen just received a huge contract extension and looks to take another step forward on his way to become an elite NFL quarterback. Allen and his teammates ran into a speed bump in the fearsome Steelers defense, who were able to hold Allen & company to only 16 points.
Allen was 30-51 for 270 yards and one touchdown and 0 interceptions but seemed to be out of sorts during various points of the game and not the player that he was last season. Allen ran for 44 yards on nine carries. On the receiving end, WR Stefon Diggs had 9 receptions for 69 yards and WR Cole Beasley added 8 receptions for 60 yards. Yet they could not get it done in the red zone and score when it mattered.
To be fair, the Steelers look to have one of the best defenses in the league and I expect Buffalo to improve this season, especially against lesser competition.
The Buffalo defense was seen to be a weakness coming into this game but they were able to pressure Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger quite often. The Steelers came into the game with a ballyhooed rookie running back Najee Harris, but he was held to 45 yards on 16 attempts for only an average of 2.8 yards per carry.
While the Bills offense is projected to be one of the most potent units in the league, the defense carried the day for the Bills and you cannot say they are the reason they lost this game.
The Bills will have a chip on their shoulder going into week two coming off a loss. I’m sure the Miami Dolphins would rather face an overconfident Bills team coming off a big week 1 win, but instead, they should get a fired-up, focused version of the team.
The Bills definitely do not want to drop to 0-2 against their rivals, the Miami Dolphins, so we can expect Bills head coach Sean McDermott to pull out all the stops in the playbook in order to try and get the victory on Sunday.
Miami CB Xavien Howard against Bills WR Stefon Diggs. A big part of Josh Allen’s leap forward last season was the addition of a big-time weapon who can get open against any coverage, wide receiver Stefon Diggs. Xavien Howard is calling himself and playing like the best cover corner in the league.
If Howard can shut down Diggs, the Bills’ offense becomes one-dimensional. WR Cole Beasley, the Bills #2 option does not have the game-breaking abilities that Diggs has. Deep threat WR John Brown is no longer on the team.
If Diggs is able to beat Howard consistently and put up big numbers, a major aspect of the Dolphins defense disappears, their ability to shut down their opponent’s number one receiver. The Bills are going to need to score against the Miami defense.
While the Dolphins’ defense is not as good as Pittsburgh’s, it is still a very good squad. If Diggs has a big day, expect Buffalo to return to the winner’s circle. If Howard can shut down Diggs, Miami could be looking at a 2-0 start.
Buffalo is a team with big expectations coming off a loss but traveling down to play in the Florida heat can be a bear for northern teams. Not only is it hotter than usual, but the Florida humidity can drain even the best-conditioned players quickly if not acclimated to it. Miami spent their whole training camp working through these grueling conditions, and they use it as an additional edge when playing against teams not used to the heat and humidity
I do believe that Xavien Howard will have a favorable matchup against Stefon Diggs. This will turn the Bills’ offense one-dimensional. While this seems to be a great "get right" spot for the Bills, I cannot ignore grabbing points with the team in a favorable situation. Here is my NFL pick, I’m taking the points. I’m taking the Miami Dolphins.
NFL Pick: Miami Dolphins +3.5 (-125) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.