Baylor is struggling to defend its national title due to a resurgence by other teams in the Big 12. The conference has four ranked teams and six in the current NCAA Tournament field. That has caused a logjam at the top of the conference standings, and a handful of teams could win the Big 12 this year.
Baylor is firmly in the mix, but they need to go on a run to end the regular season if they want to pass Kansas. The Bears have a solid roster and another stellar offense despite losing most of last year’s talent, and they’ve proven that they can at least contend with anyone in the country.
They’ll be tested again this week as they travel to play Texas. Led by Chris Beard, Texas is outside the top tier of teams in the Big 12. They might not win the regular-season title, but they still have plenty to prove as we approach the postseason.
The NCAAB odds favor Baylor by 1.5 points. Can they cover the spread on the road? Here are keys for victory and a pick for this game.
Monday, February 28, 2022 – 9:00 PM EST at Frank Erwin Center
Baylor is an offensive powerhouse, but they need to find rhythm early in this game. They rely heavily on three-pointers, and that is not a sustainable strategy for every game. If those shots aren’t falling, it will be hard for them to pivot and still win.
Baylor likes to stretch the floor because they are relatively undersized as a whole. To counterbalance this, they need to remain versatile defensively and double in the post. If they can fly around and cause quick decisions, it will be easier to hide their lack of size.
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For a team that is so good at getting offensive rebounds, Baylor doesn’t have a great rebounding margin. They rely on longboards to go to their guards, but they need to prioritize staying in the paint and snagging rebounds. Rebounds are seen as an effort statistic, and it will matter even more with the lack of size in Baylor’s frontcourt. Texas isn’t particularly large, but rebounds will be up for anyone without a true big.
Baylor wins in the margins, but they’ll hopefully keep this one from being a close game at the end. What can Texas do to keep this one close?
Texas needs to keep its defensive prowess without fouling as often. They foul more than any team in the Big 12, and it’s put them in bad situations in big games. They have to keep their best players on the floor, and they can’t do that if they rack up fouls in the first half.
Texas also has to guard the perimeter. They give up more three-point attempts due to their strength on the interior, but Baylor is capable of making those shots. Even if it stretches your defense, you need to be able to contest jump shots against a team like the Baylor Bears.
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The Longhorns play at home, and that is great news. This will likely be a low-scoring game if Texas has its way. Because of this, the Longhorns need to maximize any scoring run they have. If they get momentum, they need to squeeze it for all it’s worth. You don’t win by having 10-4 runs. They need one or two long stretches where they can push out a lead that becomes too much for the Bears to overcome.
Texas fouls too often, but they’ll probably get favorable calls at home. They can rebound well, and they have a defense that can keep up with the Bears. Since they are playing at home, I’m giving them a slight advantage.
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Texas needs a win here to gain momentum before the end of the regular season. A Quadrant 1 win would help boost their seeding in the NCAA Tournament, and I think they win this game outright. With such a small spread, for my NCAAB pick, I’m avoiding the points and going for an outright upset by the Longhorns.
NCAAB Pick: Texas (+102) with BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.