The New York Yankees find themselves two games clear of the second wild-card spot with three games to go, all but guaranteeing they will host the AL Wild Card Game on Tuesday. Still, there’s work to do in order to wrap up that spot, and the Yankees will certainly come out here looking for a big win.
The Rays, meanwhile, have little reason to give it they’re all with the best record in the American League wrapped up, although they may want to send a message to New York with the postseason nearing. With the stage set, let’s get into who wins this game. We’ll go over the MLB odds and give out our MLB picks at the top-rated sportsbooks.
Friday, October 1, 2021 – 7:05 PM ET at Yankee Stadium
We have asked this question all season long about a team that just keeps winning. What’s it going to take to stop the Tampa Bay Rays? In one way they are, in fact, beatable. Tampa Bay is averse to left-handed pitching. The Rays have recently climbed up the ranks in wRC+, but still, rank 17th in OPS to lefties at .733.
They also have struck out in 25.5% of plate appearances versus left-handers, and have hit .244 with a .304 batting average on balls in play. Considering their batting average on balls in play for the season is .292, you could even classify their numbers as a bit inflated due to luck.
Aside from that, this matchup would tend to favor the Rays on paper, who are pretty great against fastballs, cutters, and sliders — the primary pitches of the Yankees’ Nestor Cortes. With that said, there are plenty of reasons to doubt the Rays here.
Tampa Bay used its full complement of low-leverage relievers on Thursday after clinching home-field advantage throughout the playoffs, and shouldn’t be expected to deploy its most valuable arms much as it gears up for the postseason.
Starting Friday’s game will be Shane McClanahan, who has an electric fastball and a wealth of talent, but who has struggled a bit at the beginning of the season. The lefty owns a 4.63 xERA, a product of a gaudy 45.4% hard-hit rate and a .420 xwOBA on contact. That’s not going to fly against the exit velocity machines of the Yankees.
Speaking of those machines, the Yankees are really swinging the lumber in a big way right now. They rank fourth in Isolated Power over the last week and fourth in homers, with 12. They own the third-best hard-hit rate at 45.3$ and the best barrel rate in the league during that time at a whopping 14.7%.
That’s because the Yankees’ biggest bats have been absolutely clobbering the ball. They’ve won eight of nine, and in that span, Aaron Judge is slashing .345/.447/.862 with four home runs and 12 RBIs. He’s showing up in big games and big at-bats, trying to singlehandedly get New York into October.
Giancarlo Stanton is also possessed at the moment with a .333/.395/.848 triple slash over those nine games with five round-trippers and 16 RBIs. Together, they have formed an unstoppable tandem. Nestor Cortes, as mentioned above, will carry his mustache and 2.85 ERA into this start against the Rays. He’s been very effective with a 27.5% strikeout rate, which should really play up against these whiff-happy Tampa Bay bats.
The Yankees are just the type of team which young Shane McClanahan doesn’t want to face. He’s struggled with allowing home runs and loud contact, and there is no lineup supplying more of that at the moment than the Yankees. Then, there’s the fact that New York ranks inside the top seven in OPS and wRC+ against lefties.
Cortes should be set up for a good night with the Rays’ high strikeout rate against lefties, and McClahanan should be in a spot of bother. If this one starts to get away from the youngster, too, you can bet your bottom dollar the Rays won’t be bringing in the big guns. I think there should be a discrepancy in how much these teams care, and we can profit off of that.
MLB Pick: Yankees –126 with BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.