With only a few games left, there are some teams that are in a position where they are basically already playing in playoff-like games. This is an example of that as the Miami Heat host the Philadelphia 76ers tonight at American Airlines Arena. The Sixers have all but clinched first overall in the east while the Heat can still improve their playoff position by picking up some wins.
This year's playoffs have already made the regular season a little more interesting because of how the seeding works. Since only the top 6 automatically qualify for the playoffs, avoiding the 7-10 spot became way more important than some times may have realized. That's to say Miami would have never even taken not finishing top 6 into consideration in the preseason. Now they've had to really buckle down and solidify their playoff position.
They'll get another chance to do that tonight against a Sixers team that is very comfortable in first place. Even though they are only 1.5 ahead of Brooklyn in the standings, they have two home games left against the Orlando Magic who are the second worst team in the Eastern Conference. Nobody is saying the Sixers aren't trying to win but they do have guys that will benefit from some extra rest before the playoffs.
That brings us to this game where the spread has opened at -2 (-110) for Miami, which makes all the sense in the world according to the narrative that I'm leading up to. Miami is clearly not the better team but they have all of the motivation in this spot.
We can't know Philadelphia's motivation going into this game but we can use common sense. They know Miami is desperate for a win so they most likely aren't going to be able to match their intensity. As human beings, if they know that they can live to fight another die, they'll naturally not be as up for this game as the Heat. Add to that the fact that they're on the road and you have the opening line that we got.
I think that line is a gift but I'm still not taking any chances which is why my best bet for this game is Miami on the moneyline. I think the Sixers have shown enough through the course of the season that they're role players still have a motor and come to play and often win, even without Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons.
On the flip side, as much as Miami needs this game, they've been anything but consistent all season. That inconsistency starts with their offense which is ranked 21st in offensive efficiency. Remember, this is basically the exact same roster that finished 7th in scoring last season which is why they are still fighting for playoff positioning this late in the season. I'm riding with the Heat tonight because they've won 7 of their last 10 and are peaking at the right time.
NBA Pick: Heat Moneyline (-117) at BetOnline