We complete the quarterfinals of the US Open on Wednesday, and near the end of what’s been an exciting and, at times, an unpredictable journey. The final day of the quarters shouldn’t be so unpredictable, with many big favorites taking the court, so what is the best way to bet these matches at the top rated sportsbooks? Is there any value in the underdogs, or should we back the favorites? Let’s dig into the matches and see where the value lies.
Wednesday, September 08, 2021 – 07:00 PM EDT at Arthur Ashe Stadium
This one will be a very interesting match to begin the night session, with Sakkari entering the match off of one of the biggest wins of her career. The Greek took out Bianca Andreescu, who had never lost a match at the US Open, in a thrilling three-setter, rising to the occasion in countless big moments to dig deep and steal the momentum away from the Canadian. She’s into her second career semifinal, which have both come in 2021, and has her eyes on the trophy with many of the big names now out of the draw.
Then, there’s Karolina Pliskova. The tall, big-serving veteran is three years Sakkari’s elder, and still looking for that first Grand Slam title. Pliskova made the final here at the US Open back in 2016, when she burst onto the scene in the WTA, and has consistently turned in her best performances at this tournament. She’s been to the quarters twice since then, and claim that she was the No. 1 player in the world for some time. Now ranked at No. 4, and coming off a loss in the Wimbledon final, Pliskova wants to continue elevating her game.
Sakkari and Pliskova have had nearly identical seasons, with the former going 30-14 this year and the latter 34-16. Both have gone 20-9 on hardcourts. So, is there much between them? The answer here, to me, is no. Sakkari has that type of game-changing power off of both wings to hit through someone who’s not a great mover like Pliskova, but the Czech can answer with one of the biggest serve and forehand combinations on tour. This should be an exhibition in ball-bashing, where I’d tend to lean towards Sakkari with her massive groundstrokes.
With that being said, Pliskova is going to have the big advantage here in the experience department, and does deserve to be the favorite as a multi-time Grand Slam finalist. It may seem like a cop-out, but the over is a great play here. We should see three sets, or two deep sets at the bare minimum with a tiebreak. This should be within reach in a few different ways.
Tennis Pick: Over 22 games (-115) with BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Wednesday, September 08, 2021 - 08:15 PM EDT at Arthur Ashe Stadium
In our thrilling nightcap, we will see Italian sensation Matteo Berrettini attempt to deny Novak Djokovic a chance at a Grand Slam. Djokovic, of course, looks as beatable as ever this year at the US Open coming in off the disappointment of not medaling in Tokyo and compounding that with several dropped sets over the last week and a half.
Berrettini doesn’t enter this one in the best of form with a five-set win over Ilya Ivashka and a four-set win over Oscar Otte which probably would have been a lot more grueling if not for an injury to the German in the fourth set. His play hasn’t really been the most convincing, but he’s seemed to find the magic he found at this tournament two years ago when he announced himself to the tennis world.
This is a familiar matchup, with Berrettini meeting Djokovic in each of the last two Slams on the calendar. He fell to Djokovic three sets to one in the French Open quarters, and again lost 3-1 to the World No. 1 in the Wimbledon final. Each time, Berrettini was able to bother Djokovic a bit before the Serb was able to adjust, and I think that is where the value lies in this match.
Djokovic has been donating sets to just about everyone, and Berrettini has the sharpness on his massive forehand to send Djokvoic scrambling all over the court. While he should eventually problem-solve as he did against Jenson Brooksby, Djokovic will be up against more power than he’s seen all tournament. Berrettini knows Djokovic’s game and will constantly mix things up to get in his head early here. For my best bets, I see value in targeting the total.
Tennis Pick: Over 34.5 Games (+107) with Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
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