Casey Mize and the Detroit Tigers have a taste of home-dog value versus the New York Yankees on Friday’s MLB odds board.
Friday 28th May 2021 7:10 PM EDT at Comerica Park
As a rule of thumb, you’re not supposed to bet on the New York Yankees. They’ve already got too many of their ardent fans throwing money at the online sportsbooks; the books (those who follow the “Nevada” model, at least) respond by charging them a premium, and offering New York’s opponents at a bargain price. Sometimes the Yankees are good enough to overcome the hype. Sometimes.
This hasn’t been one of those times – not yet, at least. New York went into Thursday’s action with a record of 28-20 on the 2021 campaign, which is pretty good, but if you had bet a single unit on each of those games, you’d be down 1.71 units. Even if you don’t have projections and power rankings in your arsenal, you can’t go too wrong putting the Detroit Tigers in your MLB picks this Friday when they host the Yankees in the opener of a three-game set. The question is: Are they worth it after opening as +208 home dogs at BetOnline?
The problem with auto-fading the Yankees is that sometimes, their opponents are really bad. The Tigers (minus-2.66 units) sailed into Thursday at 19-30, good for last place in the American League Central. They’re in Year Five of what seems like an eternal rebuild, one that began after the death of their owner and patriarch Mike Illitch. Detroit’s farm system looks good now, but they still have a ways to go before they reach .500 in the majors. The good news for Tiger fans: They don’t have to wait any longer for Casey Mize (4.57 FIP).
The No. 1 overall pick in 2018 and Detroit’s top prospect is already paying dividends, leading his team to a record of 5-4 and 8.13 units in profit. That’s third out of all qualifying starters on the money charts. Mize has also given up just five earned runs in his last four starts combined. Money money money, hubba hubba hubba.
Officially, the Yankees have yet to name a starter as we go to press, but most media outlets have Gerrit Cole (1.71 FIP) taking the mound on Friday. Cole is having his best year since he was taken first overall in 2011 – and that’s saying something for a three-time All-Star. Cole has also been a profitable pick this year, but the Yankees have only gone 6-4 in his 10 starts, leaving Cole well behind Mize at plus-2.93 units. If you’re worried about Cole being just too good to bet against, there’s always the Under, which is a combined 14-4-1 for these two pitchers.
As you might expect, there’s a tiny total of seven runs on the board at Bookmaker, but the +105 vig softens the blow somewhat; the forecast also calls for light rain throughout the day, which should help keep a lid on scoring. Pick your poison, but we’re leaning towards Mize and the Tigers on Friday’s MLB odds list.
MLB Pick: Tigers +208 at BetOnline