The AL East race is tightening and this week it could become even closer with the New York Yankees leaving their pinstripes behind to visit Fenway Park. The Yankees were thought to be in a position to start building a lead in the AL East by this point, with Boston on their way to a .500 season. The Red Sox charged to the lead and have managed to hold onto their division.
New York has stumbled like someone walking on uneven pavement and has been settled in fourth place for a long stretch before moving up to third yesterday. However, the Yankees are showing life and might be ready to make a move, while the BoSox are playing very much like a team trying to hang on. In the opener of this four-game set, the MLB odds at top sportsbooks like Bovada (visit our Bovada Review) have Boston as a -140 money line choice.
Thursday, July 22, 2021 – 7:10 PM EDT at Fenway Park
With New York (50-44, -16.2 units) having won nine of their previous 13 contests and four series in a row, they are showing a stronger pulse than they have all season. While this is great news for Yankees’ fans, the surge has come from exceptional pitching, not hitting. New York has climbed over scoring four runs a contest to four point two but that is hardly cause for celebration when they are 22nd in the majors.
What is carrying this crew is pitching, as they have allowed only two point seven RPG in this stretch, which takes the pressure off the offense. As manager Aaron Boone’s club approaches the 100-game mark of the season, it seems apparent pitching, not hitting is the Yanks best path to the postseason. And if the offense finally comes around, that will only enhance their position.
In the New England area, the Red Sox (58-38, +15.7), or Sawx if you prefer, have been a pleasant surprise all season. The biggest weakness going into this season was trotting out quality starters week after week. Through May, Boston’s starting staff was getting it done and some slippage in June was mostly covered up by an offense that continues to score over five point zero RPG.
In July, the starters’ ERA has gone south and is down to 19th overall. The bullpen is holding their own, ranked in the Top 10 for ERA, yet one has to wonder if that will continue with more than two months left in the regular season. Chris Sale returning to past form would be a huge boost along with a possible trade. For now, the Boston bats must produce.
Yankees fans are a different group. If they trade or sign a free agent pitcher and he doesn’t produce immediately, they are ruthless. However, if a hurler comes through their system and doesn’t meet expectations, they are much more patient. That doesn’t mean they all are quiet, there are just fewer using curse words. Case in point, Jordan Montgomery (three-five, four point eighteen ERA). The lefthander is not a bust, yet at the same time, he has not had an ERA under 4.00 since 2018. In some metrics, he’s having a good season despite the record, but permitting 12 golfer balls in 99 innings diminishes whatever available positives.
Tanner Houck (zero-two three point thirty-eight) is expected to be the BoSox starter and he’s an interesting pitcher. He’s 25, extremely coachable, and always willing to do what it takes to find improvement. He has two fastballs, often a wipeout slider and funky enough delivery to matter. He pitched three scoreless innings in the Bronx last Friday, can he keep it going?
For MLB picks, not a simple choice. New York won last week’s series at home but is two-seven this season against their chief rival. The teams have split the last 16 skirmishes at Fenway Park and it seems like it could go either way. We are siding with Boston who is 17-2 after three consecutive games versus division foes and the Yankees 5-13 vs. teams averaging three point five or more extra-base hits per game.
MLB Pick: Red Sox ML -140 at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.