Yankees 1st 5 (-180)
Yankees vs. Orioles MLB Picks: Dean Kremer Day (Archive)
The reeling Baltimore Orioles open a three-game series with the New York Yankees on Friday. The Orioles have lost five of their last six games and they’re just 5-13 at home. Where’s the value in this game? Here’s a complete preview, including updated odds and MLB picks.
New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles
Friday, May 14, 2021 – 07:05 PM EDT at Oriole Park at Camden Yards
Corey Kluber vs. Dean Kremer
Corey Kluber (2-2, 3.06 ERA, 1.39 WHIP) will be making his eighth start of the season. The right-hander pitched well on Saturday, giving up two earned runs on six hits with six strikeouts and three walks over 5 2/3 to get a no-decision in a 4-3 win against the Nationals. Kluber is 4-1 with a 2.73 ERA and a 1.036 WHIP in eighth career starts against them, with one complete game and 61 strikeouts over 56 innings. The current Orioles lineup is 6-for-33 (.145) against Kluber. Trey Mancini is just 1-for-5 against him.
Dean Kremer (0-3, 5.64 ERA, 1.50 WHIP) is still after his first win of the season. The right-hander will make his seventh start and he is coming off a rough outing against the Red Sox on Sunday when he allowed three earned runs on five hits (one home run) with three strikeouts and one walk over five innings in a 4-3 loss. Two of Kremer’s losses this season were against the Yankees and his numbers weren’t pretty:
- April 6th: Gave up three earned runs on five hits (one home run) with five strikeouts and four walks in three innings
- April 28th: Gave up six earned runs on 10 hits (two home runs) with four strikeouts and zero walks in 4 1/3 innings
Overall he is 1-2 with an 5.40 ERA and a 1.64 WHIP in four career starts against the Yankees with 23 strikeouts over 18 1/3 innings. The current Yankees lineup is 15-for-58 (.305) against Kremer. DJ LeMahieu and Giancarlo Stanton hit him well. LeMahieu is 4-for-11 (.364) with a double and Stanton is 3-for-5 (.600) against him.
Prediction
The Yankees opened as -175 favorites, but over at FiveThirtyEight, they already have them at -170 based on our calculations (they suggest will win this game 63 percent of the time). The player to watch for the Yankees is Giancarlo Stanton (147 Weighted Runs Created Plus) A Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) of 100 is the league average. Stanton’s 147 would be 47 percent above the league average. Baltimore needs Cedric Mullins (150 Weighted Runs Created Plus), as their leadoff hitter he sets the tone for the offense and he’s hitting .314 at home.
The projected Yankees lineup has seven batters with a Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA) above .340, seven batters with Isolated Power (ISO) above .185 and six batters with a walk rate above 8.5 percent. Baltimore’s projected lineup has six batters with a strikeout rate above 21 percent, three batters with Isolated Power (ISO) above .185 and just two batters with a Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA) above .340. Corey Kluber is 1-0 with a 1.32 ERA and an 0.91 WHIP in his last two starts and he dominated the Orioles on April 27th, giving up just one earned run on six hits with five strikeouts and two walks over 6 2/3 innings in a 5-1 win. I see Kluber continuing his recent dominance while the Yankees get to Kremer early.
MLB Pick: Yankees 1st 5 -180 at GTbets