Irresistible force, meet immovable object. The Yankees, on a nine-game winning streak, will collide with the Braves this week in Atlanta, a team that has also won nine in a row. With mirrored form comes nearly mirrored odds; bookmakers have pegged this one as a game very close to a pick ‘em, with the home Braves getting a little more love. With a rainout on Sunday, the Yankees will skip Luis Gil and turn to Jordan Montgomery, a lefty, against Huascar Ynoa, a young righty from the Atlanta system.
How much is truly between these teams? Can we pick out a winner here, or should we target the total? Without further ado, let’s take a look into how you should be wagering over at the top-rated sportsbooks.
Monday, August 23, 2021 – 7:20 PM EDT at SunTrust Park
The Yankees were a whopping eight games back of the Red Sox in the AL East just over a month ago at the All-Star break, sitting 4.5 back of the A’s and a game behind the Mariners for the final wild-card spot. Well, things can change in a hurry. The Yankees are now ahead of the Red Sox in the division, trailing the Rays by just 4.5 games, while they sit comfortably in the wild-card game, 2.5 games ahead of the next-best teams, which would be Boston and Oakland in a tie for the other spot.
It hasn’t even been a burst of offense that got them here, either. The Yankees have just a 108 wRC+ in the second half of the season, striking out a concerning 24.6% of the time and posting a rather pedestrian .168 ISO. This team is still the kind of walking at 11.1% in the second half, and shockingly New York has decided to steal a lot more, racking up 31. That’s good for fourth-best since the break.
Let’s talk about Montgomery here, considering he will get the start for the Yankees. His fastball has been superb this year, ranking in the top 30% of the league in velocity and carrying above-average spin. While it’s not a pitch the Braves have necessarily struggled against this year, Atlanta has just posted 0.24 weighted runs per 100 pitches there. He’s also coming off a great month of July which saw him post a 2.93 ERA and in two August starts he’s been effective, with a 3.72 mark. He was forced to miss almost the entire month on the COVID-19 list.
Does anyone remember when the NL East was a legitimate competition? It sure is difficult to do that. The Braves now lead the Phillies by five games in the division, with the Mets — in first place just a month ago — a whopping seven games out of the lead in third. In fact, New York is essentially as close to first place as fourth, with the Nationals sitting 7.5 games behind the Mets.
Life’s good for the NL East leaders. Nine in a row is nothing to bat an eye at, and while they’ve posted a bland 105 wRC+ since the All-Star break, the Braves have done well in their at-bats. They’ve walked 9.4% of the time, struck out in just 21.2% of at-bats and a .194 ISO is rather robust.
Speaking of robust, you may say that about Huascar Ynoa’s profile. He throws gas with a fastball sitting comfortably at 97 mph on average, and that’s carried him to a 27.3% strikeout rate. The one caveat here is that his 4.54 xERA tells a much different story than his strikeout numbers, as does his 45.8% hard-hit rate. Batters have been able to smack his pitches, and regression is coming for that 2.70 ERA.
I love the Yankees for our MLB pick here for a couple of reasons. The first is definitely the peripherals for Ynoa, who will go up against one of the best exit-velocity lineups in baseball. The other would be the Braves’ shortcomings against lefties; they’ve ranked just outside the bottom third of the league in wRC+ to southpaws. Montgomery is pitching well and he should allow New York to keep rolling.
MLB Pick: Yankees ML (-103) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.