WTA Australian Open 2022 Semifinals Best Bets for January 27 (Archive)
The field is shrinking rapidly at the Australian Open and only the top players are remaining. Some players advancing this far seemed quite obvious, others were a complete surprise. The high drama continues down under as we look to the Australian Open for more winning tennis picks.
Ashleigh Barty vs. Madison Keys
Thursday, January 27, 2022 – 03:30 AM at EST Rod Laver Arena
Ashleigh Barty's streak of not losing a set continued as she scored a dominant victory over Jessica Pegula. Barty dominated 6-2, 6-0. Barty hit 6 Aces to 2 double faults. Barty won 81% of her first serve points and won all 7 of her service games. This was not a huge surprise. Barty has one of the most effective serves in that WTA. Ash Barty's return dominance against Jessica Pegula, who has very strong serve, was the story of the match. Pegula only held 2 out of 7 games. Barty won 69% of return points en route to breaking the American's serve five times. Overall, it was a completely dominant performance from the WTA world #1.
Madison Keys continued her upset tour, this time taking out reigning French Open Champion: Barbora Krejcikova. Keys beat the world #4 6-3, 6-2. Keys hit an impressive 11 Aces and had only 1 double fault. She landed 72% of first serves and won 8 of her 9 service games. Keys did an excellent job breaking Krejcikova's serve. Keys won 4 of 8 return games. Keys does not have a high ranking because she doesn't consistently put together impressive performances. Yet she consistently overperforms her expectations at Grand Slams.
Madison Keys is one of the hardest hitters on tour and will present a unique challenge for Ashleigh Barty. Barty is an aggressive player who is used to being on the attack. This will be a rare occurrence for her to be on the defensive. She will have to play defense, however, against Keys who hits so hard she usually is in control of points. Keys excels at keeping her opponents in defensive court position. Barty is an excellent defender but she will be defending more often than she's accustomed to tonight.
I do think there is a value on the moneyline for Madison Keys with the WTA odds being +333 for her to win. However, the safer bet here is the 'over'. We have two of the WTA’s most dominant servers. Even though both are fairly adept at returns and can take advantage of weak second serves, their ability to win a majority of their first service points will lead us to many holds of serve and perhaps a tiebreaker. This is an exciting match. It could be Madison Keys' breakthrough, but the best play for the match is the over of 21 games.
WTA Pick: Ashleigh Barty/Madison Keys Over 19.5 games (-105) with BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Danielle Collins vs. Iga Swiatek
Thursday, January 27, 2022 - 4:45 AM at EST Rod Laver Arena
Danielle Collins looks impressive in her quarterfinal win over Alize Cornet. Collins ran into some trouble in the first set, but then pulled away for an eventual 7-5, 6-1 victory. Collins made the semifinal of the Australian Open in 2019, and she is looking for her first final ever in a Grand Slam Tournament. Collins will face her toughest test of the tournament against Iga Swiatek.
Iga Swiatek faced a stern challenge in the quarterfinals against Kaia Kanepi from Estonia. Iga Swiatek dropped the first set, and then squeaked out the second set in a tiebreak. She took control of the match in the third and eventually won 4-6, 7-6, 6-3. Iga Swiatek’s defensive ability and knack for absorbing power and redirecting her opponent’s pace was on display. Once Iga Swiatek figured out the timing of Kanepi’s offense, she was able to take control of the match.
Iga Swiatek was one of the favorites to win the tournament before it started. Collins was considered a long shot. This was because Collins did not play any matches before the Australian Open started and we were unsure of her form. Now we know that Collins is in excellent form. Collins does not have the pure power game of Kanepi. Collins is more balanced and can play excellent defense when need be. Collin's backhand could be the difference in the match. If Collins can control backhand to backhand rallies the way she did against Cornet she has a great chance to win.
Collins is an underdog against Iga Swiatek and we will take advantage of getting plus money on the WTA odds. I think Collins is being undervalued and this is some of the best tennis she has played in her career. This handicap comes down to form vs pedigree. Collins’ form is better but Iga has the better pedigree. In this case, I will back the player in top form. Our second semifinal bet will be Danielle Collins ML +130.
WTA Pick: Danielle Collins ML (+125) with Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.