The Minnesota Wild look to make it two in a row against the highly-fancied Las Vegas Golden Knights who are widely expected to clinch this first round West Division series. But the NHL odds are stacked against Minnesota once again.
According to early Stanley Cup futures, the Golden Knights are amongst the top faves to win the Stanley Cup and they’re the faves in this first round series. And yet, in spite of the betting outlook, the Wild backed themselves against the odds to take the first game 1-0 in overtime.
Any sense of bonhomie following the upset however hasn’t spilled forth into the betting. On the contrary, the betting odds are stacked heavily against Minnesota. The implication of which is clear: oddsmakers expect the Las Vegas Golden Knights will redress the balance and level the series in game 2.
So, do the markets have it right? Should bettors fade the Wild and shade the Golden Knights instead? Or should they take serious stock of the Wild for game 2 NHL picks? We examine this matchup and serve up the best bets to spot.
Tuesday, May 18, 2021 – 10:00 PM EDT at T-Mobile Arena
To say the game was a bit of a yawn wouldn’t be an exaggeration at all. How else can one describe the three periods that went scoreless before an overtime goal decided the opening game of this series? Sure, it had pace, back-and-forth action, scoring attempts and other competitive ingredients, but it was – compared to the rest of the day’s NHL betting card – the least exciting and the lowest scoring game of the lot. That said, it was a stunning upset nevertheless by the Wild.
All along the Minnesota Wild were spotlighted as potentially dangerous floaters in the playoffs, a team that could actually shake down the West Division draw in the first round contrary to pre-playoffs market expectations. And they underscored those notions with a triumphant series opener thanks to Joel Eriksson Ek’s game winner, not to mention the stalwart net-minding of Cam Talbot as well, sweeping aside 42 shots by the desperate hosts with great effect.
Eriksson Ek capitalized on a play that began with Alex Pietrangelo’s turnover in his own zone. Ek’s shot deflected off of Golden Knights defenseman Alec Martinez to finally beat Marc-Andre Fleury, who until then had been just as flawless as his counterpart Talbot.
The Wild proved to be a tough nut to crack for the Golden Knights as they succumbed to yet another defeat to their West Division rivals. Throughout the season, Minnesota presented a tricky matchup for Las Vegas – the Golden Knights have only won three of the eight games between them – and that negative trend appears to have transcended the regular season into the postseason, despite Las Vegas having many advantages ahead of game 1 such as home-ice advantage, favorable betting odds with multiple top sportsbooks and so on.
On the bright side, the hosts showed plenty of initiative as they controlled large swathes of play and outshot the Wild 42 to 30. Marc-Andre Fleury was just as impressive, if not more so, than Cam Talbot, as he made some really tough acrobatic saves to keep his side in the game. If there were a knockback to be had it was special teams as the Golden Knights came away empty-handed in three power-play opportunities.
The Golden Knights likely gave a silent groan when they discovered that they drew the Minnesota Wild in the first round of the playoffs. Minnesota is kryptonite to Las Vegas based on their head-to-head during the regular season. And based on their first game of the playoffs it’s proving to be the case still. Unless the Golden Knights find a way to get the better of the Wild their Stanley Cup aspirations may be in jeopardy.
This puts a great deal of pressure on the Golden Knights to bounce back into the win column. Maybe even greater than most would have it because the Golden Knights are actually staring at a four-game losing skid in the playoffs dating back to last season when they were also dubbed as one of the best bets to win the Stanley Cup. Sunday’s loss to Minnesota marked Las Vegas’ fourth straight playoff loss since their upset by the Dallas Stars in the Western Conference Final. The Golden Knights inexplicably lost the last three games of the series after splitting the first two games at Rogers Place in Edmonton (one of the two hub cities for the NHL playoffs), ultimately falling 4-1 to the Stars in the series.
It’s too soon to tell whether the weight of expectation is in fact weighing down the Golden Knights or if it was just bad luck that they lost their series opener. After all, both sides played a solid game to open the series and had it not been for the deflection the outcome really could have gone either way. Having said that, the Wild do seem to be dialed into this matchup (winning six of their last seven meetings) and that speaks to certain confidence that plays to their advantage. Moreover, as the +145 underdogs across multiple sports betting sites, the Wild offer great value for a second straight upset on the road.
Granted, it’s not a sure bet backing the Wild in money-line markets, nor is it one for the faint-hearted when there’s a lot at stake. So, don’t go betting the farm on it. And yet, it’s really the most tempting NHL pick because the probability of a Wild win is actually a lot higher than the odds would imply. And therein lies the value that is simply too good to ignore.
NHL Pick: Wild +145 with GTbets