Baylor was seen as the best team in college basketball a few short weeks ago, but some losses pushed them back down the rankings. Still, they have a solid chance of repeating as national champions.
If they want to win it all, they’ll need to play better than they did against Alabama basketball. The Bears struggled on the road and lost every key margin. They fouled too often, had more turnovers, and got outrebounded.
Baylor has a chance to right the ship on Monday against the West Virginia Mountaineers. WVU has lost five straight games after losing to Arkansas, and they don’t have a solid win in Big-12 play. They need to turn things around as well, but they have far fewer hopes this year than the Baylor Bears.
Baylor will host this game, and it should be no surprise that the Bears are favored by 14 points at the NCAAB odds board. Will they cover such a high spread? Here are keys for each team and a pick for some Big 12 basketball this Monday.
Monday, January 31, 2022 – 9:00 PM EST at Ferrell Center
Baylor needs to do a better job of dictating the pace in this game. Alabama had its way with the Bears, and it caused Baylor to have uncharacteristic turnovers. Alabama capitalized and got dunks in transition. If Baylor can’t determine when to speed up and slow down, they’ll play out of character again.
Also, the Bears need to foul less. Fouls are the one thing that consistently keeps them from having great games. They foul too often, and they don’t draw enough fouls on the other end. For such an efficient offense, they rarely shoot free throws. This is an underestimated aspect of college basketball, and it’s surprising that the Bears have been so successful despite lacking in this area.
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We’ll see how the Bears change on defense, but they’ll have the better roster. They need to force West Virginia to play their half-court offense. If they do, the Bears will be able to keep everything in front of them. They won’t have enough defensive miscues to keep this close, and West Virginia will have to win with contested shots. That goes against WVU’s style of play, so that would be good news for the Bears.
The Mountaineers have the worst offense in the Big 12, and they need to step up in this one if they want to find a way to keep it close. For starters, they need to run the Bears off the line. If Baylor can take threes with room and rhythm, they will cook the WVU defense.
On offense, West Virginia needs to attack the rim. They shoot more shots inside the perimeter than anyone in the Big 12, and they like to win with free throws. Getting some of Baylor’s best players in foul trouble would also help them in the long run, so driving to the basket with the hopes of either scoring at the rim or getting fouled is the way to go.
Something worth watching is how long West Virginia keeps this one close. The Mountaineers likely won’t win on the road, but can they keep it from being a blowout? If they weather the storm, they can at least cover the spread. That won’t mean much for them, but it helps bettors.
So, which of these teams will cover the spread? Here is our college basketball pick.
Baylor is a solid team, and they play well at home. They will be looking to prove themselves after losing to the Tide, and they should be able to fix the mistakes they made last weekend.
This is a quick turnaround for these teams, and that favors the experienced Bears. They have the depth to handle the struggling Mountaineers, and that’s why I have them find a way to cover the spread. The only concern I have is if West Virginia finds a way to cover at the end due to Baylor playing bench players. Still, the gap between these teams makes it hard for me to pick anything but the Bears.
NCAAB Pick: Baylor -14 (-108) via Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.