The marquee matchup around college football in Week 3 features No. 1 Alabama visiting No. 11 Florida in SEC action on Saturday. Which way to lean at BMR’s top-rated sportsbooks?
Saturday, September 18, 2021 – 03:30 PM EDT at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium
It’s a rematch of the 2020 SEC Championship Game and could well be a preview of this December’s matchup, too, when No. 1 Alabama visits No. 11 Florida in the marquee college football game of Week 3 on Saturday. CBS has the telecast.
There’s almost no question that Alabama is going to win the SEC West again and get back to the conference title game. The Crimson Tide are -165 favorites at BMR’s top-rated books to win it again. Not sure if Florida will get there, though, as I’d favor Georgia to emerge from the East Division. The Dawgs are +155 to win the SEC title game and Gators +2200. Whichever team wins the Oct. 30 matchup in Jacksonville surely will claim the division as is usually the case.
Alabama leads the all-time series 27-14 against Florida and has won the past seven. In last year’s SEC title game, the Tide were also ranked first and the Gators seventh and Bama won 52-46 – the only single-digit result for Coach Nick Saban’s national champions. Mac Jones threw for 418 yards and five scores but of course is now with the Patriots. Najee Harris rushed for 178 yards and two TDs but is now with the Steelers. Kyle Trask threw for 408 yards and three scores but is currently riding the pine with the Tampa Bay Bucs.
Saturday will be the Tide’s first visit to Gainesville since 2011. They are 11-2 in The Swamp. Alabama is 5-2 ATS on NCAAF picks in the past seven meetings.
The Tide haven’t been tested in their two games yet with easy wins over Miami and this past Saturday against Mercer. QB Bryce Young remains the +300 favorite on future odds to win the Heisman Trophy. Young is completing 70.8 percent of his passes with seven touchdowns and no picks. He is the first player in Alabama history with seven touchdown passes in his first two starts.
The Tide have scored at least 30 points in 28 straight games, the longest active streak in the FBS. The record is 31 in a row by Central Florida from 2017-19. Since the start of the College Football Playoff era in 2014, Alabama has only lost one game by at least 13 points.
Bama’s win over Florida in last year’s SEC title game was the Tide’s 31st straight victory over an SEC East opponent. That’s just crazy. Overall under Nick Saban, the Crimson Tide are 41-3 against the SEC East. Saban is 51-9 in road games with the Tide and 49-8 in SEC road games. In SEC road openers, Saban is 13-1. That loss was at Ole Miss in 2014. Saban is 10-0 when the Tide’s first SEC game of the season is on the road as this one is.
There is one injury to monitor: Linebacker Will Anderson is day-to-day after leaving vs. Mercer with a knee injury. Anderson, a preseason All-SEC selection, ranked third in the SEC in tackles for loss last season. Defensive backs Josh Jobe and Jalyn Armour-Davis, who missed Saturday’s win with injuries, are both expected back this week.
Alabama is 7-1 ATS on NCAAF picks in its past eight SEC games and 4-1 ATS in its past five on the road.
Florida has played two cupcakes so far, pretty easily handling Florida Atlantic and South Florida. However, there might be a bit of a quarterback controversy. Starter Emory Jones has thrown two picks in each of the first two games and frankly has been outplayed for the most part by freshman backup Anthony Richardson. In Saturday’s win over USF, he was 3-for-3 for 152 yards and two scores and ran for an 80-yard score.
However, Coach Dan Mullen says that Jones remains his starter but that Richardson will continue to play. He did tweak his hamstring Saturday but should be fine. Richardson is the first UF quarterback ever to rush to rush for 100-plus yards in consecutive games. That shocks me as I thought Tim Tebow would have accomplished the feat.
“We have two really good quarterbacks. You’ll see both of them play every single game," Mullen said.
Florida ranks first in the FBS in rushing (763 yards, 381.5 yards per game) and third with 609.5 total yards/game (first in SEC). It’s the first time Florida has opened a season with back-to-back 300-yard rushing games dating back to at least 1996. Richardson leads all FBS quarterbacks with 275 rushing yards and 137.5 rushing yards per game.
Including his time at Mississippi State, Mullen is 0-10 against Alabama. He has at least one win against every other SEC team including multiple wins against every team other than Florida or Mississippi State. The Gators are 4-5 against AP Top-10 teams under Mullen.
I can’t see Florida winning this game but do think the Gators will put up a nice fight. This is the largest they have been an underdog at home since 2013. UF is 5-2 on NCAAF picks in its past seven as a dog overall.
NCAAF Pick: Florida at +16.5 (-110) with BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
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