Defending Pac-12 South champion and 2021 division favorite Southern Cal opens conference play late Saturday night against Stanford in Week 2 of the college football season. Which way to lean at BMR’s top-rated sportsbooks?
Saturday, September 11, 2021 – 10:30 PM EDT at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
Just a reminder that because there was a college football game on Monday night to close Week 1 that the Week 2 polls will not be out until Tuesday. Southern Cal was No. 15 entering its opener but is likely to move up a spot or two. Stanford doesn’t look like anything close to a Top 25 team. Fox has the late-night telecast.
I would have thought that UCLA or Notre Dame would have been USC’s oldest rival, but it’s actually Stanford as the schools first played one another in 1905. However, because of the pandemic they didn’t play last year for the first time since 1945.
The Trojans lead the all-time series 63-33-3 with one vacated victory from the 2005 season. While Stanford has won nine of the past 15 overall, USC has won three of the past four in Los Angeles.
The last matchup was 2019 in L.A. and it was notable because it was the first start for then-true freshman USC quarterback Kedon Slovis, who was a spectacular 28-for-33 for 377 yards and three scores. He was so good that Slovis hasn’t lost the job since is a Heisman candidate and likely 2022 NFL first-round draft pick.
Stanford is 6-4 ATS on college football picks in the past 10 meetings.
Remember when Stanford was one of the marquee programs in the Pac-12 and a national player? It appears those days are long gone. The Cardinal haven’t finished any of the previous two seasons ranked and they looked awful in Week 1 over the weekend, losing 24-7 against Kansas State in Dallas as a 3-point underdog on the NCAAF odds.
When a head coach plays two quarterbacks, that generally means he doesn’t have one very good one. Coach David Shaw did play two against the Wildcats. Sophomore Tanner McKee was clearly the best one, going 15-for-18 for 118 yards and a TD. That TD pass came on the Cardinal’s final offensive snap of the game as they avoided being shut out for the first time since a 42-0 loss to Southern Cal on Nov. 4, 2006.
Jack West started at QB and was 8-for-12-for 76 yards and two picks. I’d think McKee would start against USC, and he was the better recruit anyways.
Stanford managed only 233 yards against Kansas State and a big chunk of those yards came with the team down by three scores. Stanford had just two plays longer than 15 yards. The Cardinal played without starting wideout Michael Wilson and starting defensive backs in cornerback Salim Turner-Muhammad and safety Jonathan McGill. None of them will play here.
As for this matchup, Stanford actually has won three of its past 10 games overall as at least a 17-point underdog on NCAAF picks – last in 2012 at Oregon – and is 6-4 ATS in those 10.
USC was -13.5 at BMR’s top-rated books in Week 1 against a quality San Jose State team and it was tight through three quarters before the Trojans outscored the Spartans 17-0 in the fourth to win 30-7. The 23-point margin of victory was USC’s largest in an opener since defeating Arkansas State by 49 in 2015. The seven points allowed were the fewest given up by the Trojans since a 45-7 win over Utah State on Sept. 10, 2016.
Quarterback Kedon Slovis, who is +3000 to win the Heisman Trophy, completed 24 of 36 for 256 yards, two scores and no turnovers. Junior Drake London caught 12 passes for 137 yards, and the Trojans rushed for 160 yards. The defense allowed 376 yards in a bend-don’t-break type effort. Greg Johnson returned a late interception 37 yards for a touchdown. That was USC’s first pick-six since 2018.
One of USC’s best defenders, safety and two-time captain Isaiah Pola-Mao, missed the game in the health and safety protocols, so monitor that this week. True freshman Calen Bullock started for him. He became the first true freshman to start a season opener at safety for USC since Su’a Cravens in 2013.
Southern Cal is 70-23-5 all-time in conference openers and 42-9-3 at home. Coach Clay Helton has won 73.5 percent (36-13) of his Pac-12 games, ranking him sixth all-time among league coaches with at least five years in the Pac-12. Yet Helton remains on a very hot seat.
I hate this spread to be honest and would wait to see if it falls under 17. But since we have to make a pick now, let’s go with USC. The Trojans have covered the NCAAF betting spread in five of their past seven as home favorites.
NCAAF pick: USC at -17 (-110) with Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.