Virginia vs. Syracuse Betting Preview for Monday: Forecast Calls for Raining Threes in Syracuse (Archive)
NCAAB Pick: Over 132.5 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
The sportsbooks have released their betting odds for tonight’s college basketball game between Virginia and Syracuse.
Virginia enters this game on a six-game winning streak, as part of which it has scored 76 or more points in three straight contents. Syracuse, though, is struggling. The Orange are coming off losses to North Carolina and Virginia Tech.
Tonight’s affair will be a rematch: on January 7, Virginia defeated Syracuse 73-66. The score line of that game flatters Syracuse because the Cavaliers were up by 23 points in the second half before coasting to victory.
For reasons that I will explain, you should play both the spread and the total for tonight’s game.
Virginia Cavaliers vs. Syracuse Orange
Monday, January 30, 2023 – 07:00 PM EST at JMA Wireless Dome in Syracuse
Key Trend
Note for your best bets that the "over" is 9-2 in Syracuse's games against ACC opponents. The two "unders" came in Syracuse's first matchup against Notre Dame and in its contest against North Carolina.
In order to consider whether tonight's game will go "under," let's consider why those two games went "under" and ask if tonight's Orange opponent is similar to those two teams, Notre Dame and North Carolina, in relevant ways.
Passing Is Important
To preface my discussion of the first Syracuse-Notre Dame game, we need to establish that passing is very important against Syracuse's defense.
Its importance is evident in the fact that the Orange allow the highest ratio of assists per field goals made in the country.
Teams score against Syracuse's zone by achieving assists.
Passing vs. the Zone
The zone is not a man defense. To score against Syracuse, players aren't initially focused on beating an individual defender. Instead, players are focused on getting the ball to a player before an Orange defender can respond quickly enough.
Syracuse's defense used to be very good when it had two things that it lacks right now: One, Orange defenders used to all be lengthy.
When its defense ranked 30th in efficiency back in 2019, for example, all of its players on the court were 6'5 or taller. Length is important because it makes it difficult for the opposing offense to pass the ball into key areas, like the free throw line, to which Syracuse's zone defense becomes vulnerable.
Two, Syracuse's defenders used to be experienced in the zone. Coach Boeheim established his zone defense at a time when players typically stayed at their school for multiple years. It takes time for defenders to learn the rotations to be able to respond appropriately to the opposing offense's passing.
But today's college basketball players typically don't want to stay at their school for so long, and this year's Orange starting lineup features three freshmen.
Notre Dame's Passing Ability
Is Notre Dame the sort of team that can skillfully whip the ball into key areas and that can use passing to navigate zone defenders? The answer is "no." Notre Dame is not a team that accrues many assists per field goals made – the Irish rank 11th in the ACC in this statistical category.
Notre Dame's point guard, Trey Wertz, is naturally more of a shooting guard whose strength in his career has been three-point shooting.
Given their lack of passing ability, the Irish struggled to reach 60 points in both their games against Syracuse. The first game went "under."
Virginia's Passing Ability
With respect to passing, Virginia is importantly not like Notre Dame. Truly a team-oriented team, the Cavaliers value sharing the basketball. Hence, they rank second nationally in assists per field goals made.
They practice freeing their teammates through screens as part of their mover-blocker and triangle offenses. Their players are used to anticipating when their teammates will be freed by those screens to reach certain spots on the court.
It is hard for defenses to respond to the Cavaliers' passing because they do not possess the same level of anticipation that Virginia's passers are trained to possess.
Virginia's Key Player
The key figure here is Kihei Clark, Virginia's natural veteran point guard whose most famous pass was the dramatic one that helped his teammate tie the game against Purdue in the 2019 NCAA Tournament.
He has excellent court vision, and his shiftiness as a ball-handler allows him to reach more spots on the court in which he can utilize his vision.
Given his skill set and his selflessness, he owns the nation's 14th-highest assist rate.
With Clark and with a selfless team-first mindset, Virginia has the sort of passing ability to hurt Syracuse's zone.
The North Carolina Game
Syracuse's other "under" game in ACC play was the one against the Tar Heels and the total for that game was too high because North Carolina is typically a fast-paced team.
With its zone, though, Syracuse slows opponents down because they require more time to probe for an open shot.
Tonight's total is lower because Virginia is already a slow-paced team. The Cavaliers are already used to being patient on offense and probing for the right shot.
So, Virginia is crucially unlike the Tar Heels in that it is inclined to play methodically, and this is happily reflected in tonight's much lower point total.
Three-Pointers
Given its structure, Syracuse is prone to allowing three-pointers, allowing one of the highest rates of three-point attempts in the country.
The Orange allowed fewer than 70 points against the ACC's three worst offenses, as measured by efficiency. These are Boston College, Louisville, and Georgia Tech. They are all highly inefficient from behind the arc.
Virginia, though, loves shooting threes and ranks 20th nationally in three-point percentage. Four different Cavaliers players convert 39 or more percent of their three-point attempts; there are too many Cavalier shooters for Syracuse's defense to account for.
As they did in their first meeting, including after their scoring stagnated with a tremendous lead, they will position their shooters for open three-point looks. As bettors, we have to play the percentages and expect these shooters to succeed tonight.
Syracuse's Offensive Outlook
Dribble penetration upends Virginia's pack-line concept. Orange guard Judah Mintz is talented at penetrating inside and navigating his way to the basket.
One thing that he'll do is call for a screen to initiate Virginia's characteristic hard hedge. Then, he'll comfortably reject the screen so that he can circumvent the hedging defender who will no longer be able to impede Mintz's penetration.
Most commonly, though, offenses succeed against Virginia by getting hot from deep, because the Cavaliers' pack-line defense is built to wall up against dribble penetration, especially in the middle of the floor.
Hence, Virginia ranks in the bottom half in the ACC, both at limiting opposing three-point attempts and at limiting opposing three-point percentage.
Syracuse can take advantage: the Orange have the most efficient three-point shooting in the ACC.
The Verdict
Behind strong passing and three-point shooting, Virginia will exceed 75 points for a fourth straight game. Syracuse will also score a lot, especially via three-point shooting.
As for the spread, Virginia's success against Syracuse has been consistent under coach Tony Bennett.
The Cavaliers' stronger coaching on defense will ensure that its offense has an even easier time than Syracuse's.
Thus, for your NCAAB Picks, play Virginia in addition to the "over", and if you're placing your bets from the state of New York, make sure you go over our New York betting guide.
NCAAB Pick: Virginia -5 (-110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.