The big storyline in Saturday’s Virginia at No. 25 BYU non-conference matchup is Wahoos coach Bronco Mendenhall facing his former Cougars team. Which way to lean at BMR’s top-rated sportsbooks?
Saturday, October 30, 2021 – 10:15 PM EDT at LaVell Edwards Stadium
Usually, Power 5 conference schools like Virginia of the ACC aren’t playing non-conference games at this point in the regular season, but that’s the case Saturday night against independent and 25th-ranked BYU. The Cougars will remain independent for a couple more years before going to the Big 12.
The obvious storyline for this game is Virginia head coach Bronco Mendenhall. He was in the same role at BYU from 2005-15, compiling a 99-43 record overall and 6-5 in bowl games. Virginia lured him with a nice raise in December 2015. Mendenhall said that he was drawn to the "high standards both academically and athletically at Virginia." That hiring caught many around college football by surprise because not only did Mendenhall have no ties to Virginia but had never even coached east of the Mississippi River.
It’s the sixth all-time meeting between BYU and Virginia with the Cavs leading 3-2. They haven’t played since 2014.
The good news for Virginia (6-2) is that a loss here would hurt its chances of winning the ACC Coastal Division. The Cavs are currently two games back of first-place Pittsburgh in the Coastal but still have yet to play the Panthers, so it’s not over yet.
Why is Virginia quarterback Brennan Armstrong not a betting option on the Heisman Trophy odds at BetOnline? The junior leads the nation in passing yards with 3,220. The school record of 3,538 was set by Bryce Perkins in 2019. In Saturday’s 48-40 win over Virginia Tech, Armstrong threw for 396 yards, four TDs and no picks in UVA’s fourth straight ACC win (longest ACC run for the school since 2011). Armstrong also rushed for 99 yards and two scores and has five TDs on the ground.
UVA improved to 7-0 all-time when Armstrong rushes for a touchdown. Virginia had a whopping 454 combined yards in just the second and third quarters when it outscored Georgia Tech 34-11. The Jackets recovered a pair of onside kicks and scored two touchdowns in the final 1:16 of play to make it interesting.
“Giving up those two onside kicks, and then having the defense come back out and not play well, was definitely not great,” Virginia safety Coen King said. “No one thought that was a positive thing.”
Dontayvion Wicks recorded his fourth 100-yard receiving performance of the season, finishing with six catches for 168 yards and two touchdowns. He has 847 yards (whopping 22.3 yards per catch) and eight scores on just 38 catches this year. Virginia has four wide receivers in the ACC’s Top 15 in receiving yards: Wicks is second with 847, Keytaon Thompson is eighth with 555, Billy Kemp is 10th with 541 and Ra’Shaun Henry is 14th with 457.
Seven of UVA coach Bronco Mendenhall’s current assistants were also on his staff at BYU: Robert Anae, Mark Atuaia, Garett Tujague, Jason Beck, Kelly Poppinga, Shane Hunter, and Nick Howell. Virginia is 5-0 against the spread on NCAAF picks in its past five October games.
No. 25 BYU (6-2) got bowl eligible with a 21-19 win at Washington State on Saturday. Star running back Tyler Allgeier rushed for 191 yards and two scores. The rushing yards were the most ever by a BYU player vs. a Power 5 opponent. Late in the game, Allgeier ran the ball seven times in a row and picked up three first downs to run out the clock and put the game away. The Cougars rushed for a season-high 238 yards and have topped 200 in three games.
“I like that our offense took care of the football,” Coach Kalani Sitake said. “Ball security is something that’s really important to us. When you have tight games like this, it’s important that we don’t turn the ball over — and we were able to gain one. I thought we played smart football.”
Quarterback Jaren Hall finished the game 15 of 20 for 143 yards. BYU has beaten four Power 5 teams in a single season for the first time in school history – all four wins came against the Pac-12.
Sitake said that receiver Gunner Romney and center James Empey are doubtful vs. Virginia after both suffered lower-body injuries against Washington State. Romney has 26 catches for 452 yards and three scores.
Needless to say, BYU’s pass defense will be tested by Virginia. The Cougars are allowing 239.6 passing yards per game with five TDs and eight picks. BYU is 7-0 ATS on the NCAAF odds in its past seven at home vs. teams with a winning road record. I think the Cougars will be able to keep that UVA offense off the field plenty with the Allgeier-led running game.
NCAAF Pick: BYU -2.5 (-110) with BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.