Top UFL Pick: Stallions -3.5 (-115) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
The UFL kicks off the 2024 season with Week 1 action on Saturday and Sunday. You can find game lines available at top-rated sportsbooks for the 4 games.
- The Birmingham Stallions look for a strong start against the Arlington Renegades in a battle of the USFL and XFL champions from last year.
- A.J. McCarron leads the St. Louis Battlehawks as the biggest favorite this week (6.5 points) against the Michigan Panthers.
- The DC Defenders will look to get back on track from their title game loss as they take on the San Antonio Brahmas, who are now coached by Wade Phillips.
- In the tightest game this week, the Memphis Showboats are a 1-point underdog on the road as they take on the Houston Roughnecks in the only USFL vs. USFL game in Week 1.
We pick our favorite spreads and totals for the week below.
Birmingham Stallions vs. Arlington Renegades
Saturday, March 30, 2024 – 01:00 PM ET at Choctaw Stadium
A great way to kick off the 2024 UFL season is to have the champions from both leagues square off in the first game. The Birmingham Stallions, who are seeking their 3rd-straight championship, are a 3.5-point road favorite against the Arlington Renegades. The game has a total of 42 points as every game this weekend is in that 41-to-44 point range for the total.
We are looking at the spread here.
Stallions: Simply the Best
There is no denying which team has been the best in the XFL and USFL over the last 2 years. The Stallions are 17-3 in the regular season and 4-0 in the playoffs, winning back-to-back titles behind coach Skip Holtz, who is back this year.
But we’ll see how the team does this year with the merger bringing half of the XFL over, and while the Stallions are the favorites to win the championship, the 3 teams behind them in the odds are all from the XFL. That suggests the oddsmakers see the XFL as the better competition between the leagues.
Beyond that, we’ll also see how the Stallions fare without quarterback Alex McGough, last year’s MVP, as he has moved on to the NFL with Green Bay. McGough replaced an injured J’Mar Smith in Week 1 last year and never looked back. McGough also replaced an injured Smith in the 2022 USFL Championship Game, so he has been a big part of their success.
But the team was 9-1 with Smith at the helm in 2022. He is 27 years old and has experience in running this system.
Renegades: Need Faster Start
The Renegades won the championship last year despite a 4-6 finish in the regular season. But tie-breakers got them in the tournament, and the defense stepped up once they were there. It also helped that they traded for veteran quarterback Luis Perez during the season.
Perez was 3-2 as Arlington’s starter, but he stepped up in the playoffs, throwing 3 touchdown passes in each game. But let’s not forget he was only 1-5 as a starter with the Vegas Vipers.
Coach Bob Stoops and a defense led by former NFL starter Vic Beasley will need to get off to a faster start this year as 4-6 is unlikely to be good enough for the playoffs again.
The Pick
Arlington gets a great test right away with the best team from the USFL. Arlington was the lowest-scoring XFL team last year at 14.6 points per game. The trade for Perez helped, but the Stallions come in with the more experienced team and quarterback in their system for the last 2 seasons.
The Stallions were 5-0 on the road last year. Birmingham won 9-of-12 games played last year by at least 4 points, so we’ll trust these champs to deliver again and cover the spread in Week 1.
UFL Pick: Stallions -3.5 (-115) at Bovada
St. Louis Battlehawks vs. Michigan Panthers
Saturday, March 30, 2024 – 04:00 PM ET at Ford Field
The St. Louis Battlehawks were 7-3 last year and the best team in either league to miss the playoffs due to tie-breaker scenarios. Quarterback A.J. McCarron is back to lead the team, which is a 6.5-point road favorite against the Michigan Panthers, who were 4-6 overall and just 1-4 at home last year.
We are looking at the spread again in this one.
McCarron Gives St. Louis the Edge
The Battlehawks (+350 at Bovada) have the 2nd-best odds to win the UFL Championship Game behind only the Stallions (+300). A lot of that has to do with quarterback A.J. McCarron, who was one of the best in the XFL last year and someone who has big-game experience from his days at Alabama (NCAA) and the Cincinnati Bengals (NFL).
McCarron did a great job last year, throwing for 2,150 yards and a league-high 24 touchdown passes. He threw for 420 yards and 6 touchdown passes in the final game of the season as the Battlehawks were trying to score as many points as possible to get into the playoffs, but they just came up short.
Had McCarron not suffered an injury late in the year that led to a loss when he returned a week later, maybe this team would have seriously challenged for the title. Keeping McCarron upright is key this year as despite his excellent as a passer, he still took 27 sacks to lead all passers in the 2023 XFL season.
Michigan’s Lack of Offense
Mike Nolan’s Michigan Panthers were only 4-6 last year after scoring a league-low 17.1 points per game. Nolan prides himself as a defensive coach, but his offense is going to have to play much better than it did in 2023 when it played nothing like an offense that wants to get by with protecting the ball and running it well.
The Panthers threw a league-high 12 interceptions, barely completed 60% of their passes, and they ranked next to last with 85.7 rushing yards per game.
We’ll see if the offense can improve or not as 4-6 should not be good enough to make the playoffs this year like it did last season for Michigan.
The Pick
The Battlehawks did not frequently blow teams out last year as only 4-of-10 games were won by at least 7 points. But they have the ability to score with the best of teams in this league behind McCarron, and Michigan still has a lot to prove on offense.
When Michigan lost last year, it was usually ugly with 5-of-6 losses by at least 12 points. In fact, none of Michigan’s first 6 games last year were decided by fewer than 14 points either way.
The under is another tempting bet in this game, but we’ll go with the big favorite of the week to cover and win by at least a touchdown as the Battlehawks eye a playoff season.
UFL Pick: Battlehawks -6.5 (-115) at Bovada
DC Defenders vs. San Antonio Brahmas
Sunday, March 31, 2024 – 12:00 PM ET at The Alamodome
Finally, we have a game between a couple of XFL teams from last year. The DC Defenders were the best team all year up until that championship game upset at the hands of Arlington. The Brahmas were one of the worst teams, but they have a new coach in defensive legend Wade Phillips.
The Defenders are a 6-point road favorite with a total of 44 points, the highest total of Week 1. We are going to focus on that total for your UFL picks.
DC Needs Better Defense
The Defenders were a fun 9-1 team last year with the best offense in the league, but defense was always going to be that team’s undoing. Sure enough, they fell in a big hole in the championship game against Arlington with a hot quarterback (Luis Perez), and they couldn’t climb out of it.
Even in the XFL, a great offense and poor defense team was unable to win a championship – a tale as old as time in professional football.
That’s why the focus for DC this year needs to be playing better defense, which can be hard to do in a league where you don’t have access to a deep draft and free agent class like you normally would in the NFL. We’ll see what coach Reggie Barlow can cook up, but if the Defenders want to finish the job this year, they can’t keep relying on 31-28 type of wins every week.
San Antonio Needs Better Offense
The Brahmas were just 3-7 last year as they were the 2nd-worst scoring team in the XFL. Head coach Hines Ward has been replaced by Wade Phillips, who should help the defense with his exotic blitz packages and knowledge on that side of the ball.
But offense is where the Brahmas still need to make up the most ground. Last year, the Brahmas lost 4 games where they did not allow more than 18 points, which cannot happen again this year.
The Brahmas had NFL bust Paxton Lynch at quarterback last year, but he is gone. They have Quinten Dormady on their quarterback roster this year, and he had some good numbers with Orlando in the XFL last year with 68.3% completions, 7.4 yards per pass attempt, and 10 touchdowns to 5 interceptions. Maybe he can spark the offense better this year.
The Pick
This feels like a trap for the over to hit as the best offensive team from last year takes on a team that hopes to be better on that side of the ball. But we’re going to go with some regression to hit. Maybe the Defenders on offense are a little rusty and struggle with the blitzes and looks given to them by Phillips, and maybe the defense for DC steps up and makes this more of a slugfest than a shootout.
We’ll take the under 44 points to end our week of best bets for Week 1.
UFL Pick: Under 44 (-115) at Bovada
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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