Top UFC Pick: Jairzinho Rozenstruik ML (+145) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
The small enclosure of the UFC Apex cage returns to our screens from Nevada this weekend. Top-20-ranked heavyweight brutes will exchange leather for the evening’s main event, and we’re covering all your betting needs.
Former kickboxing standout, Jairzinho Rozenstruik, clashes with a fresh face of the division in Shamil Gaziev, who notably holds an unbeaten record from his pro-MMA career to date.
Read on for our complete betting guide with an early preview of the UFC Vegas 87 main event heavyweight bout between Rozenstruik and Gaziev. We have included updated UFC odds and our expert UFC first-look betting picks, predictions and analysis for you to cash at top-rated online sportsbooks.
UFC Vegas 87 Information
- When: Saturday, March 02, 2024 – 01:30 PM ET
- Where: UFC Apex, Las Vegas
- Scheduled Bouts: 11
- Main Event: Jairzinho Rozenstruik vs. Shamil Gaziev
- Moneyline Probability: Rozenstruik – 42.6% (+135) Gaziev – 59.2% (-145)
UFC Vegas 87 Main Event
Jairzinho Rozenstruik vs. Shamil Gaziev
Jairzinho “Bigi Boy” Rozenstruik
As the lone Suriname native on the UFC roster, it would’ve been a storybook career for Jairzinho Rozenstruik if his early tenure with the promotion, which delivered consecutive knockouts, continued once he reached the division’s upper echelon of opponents.
Unfortunately, the 35-year representing American Top Team has now lost 5 of his last 8 UFC bouts and is starring at the drop outside of the top-20 heavyweight rankings if his octagon misfortunes continue.
With that said, there’s no denying the kickboxing-heavy skill set and power this man possesses in his hands. While the 7-5 UFC record doesn’t look pretty on paper, four of those losses involved former champions or title contenders, and his most recent setback came against a rising star in Jailton Almeida.
Rozenstruik Combat Sports Accomplishments
- UFC Performance of the Night (Three times)
- Latest finish in UFC Heavyweight history (4 minutes, 56 seconds)
- 2019 UFC Newcomer of the Year
- Multi-time kickboxing champion (SLAMM!, DangerZone, SUPERKOMBAT)
Rozenstruik Best ML Odds: (+145) at Bovada
Shamil Gaziev
Outside of Jon Jones, Tom Aspinall, Ciryl Gane and Serghei Pavlovich, the UFC heavyweight division is in desperate need of top-tier talent. This likely explains Shamil Gaziev’s fast track to a UFC Vegas main event, where despite being ranked #20 with only one UFC bout, the Bahrain native is gifted the opportunity to make a name for himself on the big stage instantly.
The hard-wearing terrains of Dagestan, Russia, have provided a multitude of elite-level mixed martial artists, and Gaziev is being tipped as the next to blow. The difference is the UFC is absent of Dagestani heavyweights, and we haven’t witnessed a fighter from this location in this division since Ruslan Magomedov’s career was cut short following a lifetime ban for doping violations in 2019.
The looming question remains: can Gaziev live up to the hype? Sure, he’s won 12 straight pro bouts, finished 11 of those contests inside the distance and emphatically wiped the floor with Martin Buday in his UFC debut. However, he isn’t young. The combined record of his first seven pro bouts accumulated to 5-5-0.
A fast track into the main event position will either expose or shine a light on his potential.
Gaziev Best ML Odds: (-158) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
UFC Vegas 87: Tale of the Tape
UFC Vegas 87 Skillset Analysis: Styles Make Fights
There’s no denying Gaziev’s various paths to victory in this contest. From the wrestling upside with a potential submission finish as well as a grounded TKO or even utilizing his punching power on the feet with a wild haymaker or two.
In contrast, Rozenstruik isn’t going to deploy a grappling-based game plan. Hhis lone route to having his hand raised is via the kickboxing offensive and deadly KO-power he’s renowned for.
The wrestling of Gaziev isn’t great. We’ve even seen him compromised while being on the defensive in grounded situations. Not to mention he’s been wobbled and has never fought beyond 5 minutes 56 seconds.
Alternative upsides for Rozenstruik, outside of a kickboxing duel, could be the cardio and experience. It’s hard to envision Gaziev delivering the same finishing threat as round one or two when should the fight go beyond the third.
With several unknowns and questions that won’t be answered until the cage door closes, making a prediction based on skill set is no different than flipping a coin. Nine times out of ten, we’d pick the wrestling advantage and the man with more paths to victory, but with a sample size of twelve fights involving countless cans, it’s a risky move, reflected in the tightly lined odds.
Rozenstruik Moneyline: The UFC Vegas 87 Best Bet Formula
The odds have placed Gaziev as a -158 betting favorite, with the comeback on Rozenstruik at +145.
I like to handicap fights by mixing line value and skill sets. However, the latter is out of the question this week based on the aforementioned unknowns.
For the reasons above, and because I believe this fight should be lined at -110/-105, or in that region, taking the +145 feels like a no-brainer. The knockout threat will be real. Unless Gaziev instantly shoots and stops this fight early, I see this contest swaying more in Rozenstruik’s favor for each minute that winds off the clock.
The money is coming in on Rozenstruik’s side, which opened at +154. Honestly, I can’t predict which way these odds will swing between now and fight night, so you’re best taking the current price to avoid the potential of a further decline.
UFC Pick: Jairzinho Rozenstruik ML (+145) [1u to win 1.45u] at Bovada
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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