Top UFC Pick: Pyfer Wins Inside the Distance (-185) [1.85u to win 1u] at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
In their quick return to the UFC Apex in Nevada, the Ultimate Fighting Championship will host a highly anticipated middleweight bout in the evening’s main event, and we’re covering all your betting needs.
Up-and-coming 185-lb star Joe Pyfer looks to break into the division’s top 15 rankings, but he must overcome the veteran craft of Sweden’s Jack Hermansson.
Read on for our complete betting guide with an early preview of the UFC Vegas 86 main event clash between Hermansson and Pyfer, including updated UFC odds and our expert UFC first-look betting picks, predictions, and analysis for you to play at the top-rated online sportsbooks.
UFC Vegas 86
- When: Saturday, February 10, 2024 – 04:00 PM ET
- Where: UFC Apex, Las Vegas
- Scheduled Bouts: 14
- Main Event: Jack Hermansson vs. Joe Pyfer
- Moneyline Probability: Hermansson – 31.3% (+220) Pyfer – 72.2% (-260)
UFC Vegas 86 Main Event
Jack Hermansson vs. Joe Pyfer
Jack Hermansson
While a title opportunity has eluded him throughout an eight-year UFC tenure, Jack Hermansson is a main-event player and has been competing against the middleweight division elite for some time.
Aged 35, we aren’t expecting a late-career resurgence into title contention, but ‘The Joker’ hasn’t lost two consecutive MMA bouts since 2012.
Similar to the likes of Neil Magny at welterweight and Bobby Green at lightweight, Hermansson is a divisional gatekeeper that’s a perfect tool to gauge whether the rising stars of the octagon have what it takes to hang with the big boys.
Hermansson Best ML Odds: (+220) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
Joe Pyfer
He has strength, youth, power, and hype, with only three UFC bouts to his name; the perfect recipe for disaster, some would suggest.
However, there’s something special about Joe Pyfer.
While I can’t pinpoint the star quality as of now, I sense that dusting the opposition via KO or submission since joining the promotion in 2022 has something to do with it.
There aren’t many MMA athletes gifted the opportunity to headline a fight card with only three UFC bouts on their record, but here we are. Dana White and company must see huge potential in Joe Pyfer, as he attempts to break into the top-15 rankings this weekend.
Not only has he collected 67% of his career wins via knockout (25% by submission), but he also burst into the media spotlight when breaking Francis Ngannou’s power punching record at the UFC PI.
Pyfer Best ML Odds: (-260) at BetAnySports (visit our BetAnySports Review)
UFC Vegas 86: Tale of the Tape
UFC Vegas 86 Main Event Skillset Analysis: Styles Make Fights
Fight intelligence, size, experience, and a willingness to stick to the game plan have favored Hermansson in his previous three wins. However, between those victories, he’s also lost three contests, as alternating wins and losses for ‘The Joker’ now date back to 2019.
For this reason, inspecting the losses is imperative, and what do Roman Dolidze, Sean Strickland, and Marvin Vettori (Hermansson’s most recent defeats) each have in common? Aggression, forward pressure, strength, and a solid wrestling and/or grappling background stand out.
Unfortunately for Hermansson, Pyfer fits the bill and then some. Watching Vettori, who isn’t renowned for his punching power, drop the Swede during their contest should ring huge alarm bells when opposed to the brute force of Pyfer.
Sure, we can argue that Chris Curtis (Hermansson’s most recent win) hits like a truck. However, the eagerness and violent nature of pressure were missing, and I don’t envision this scenario on Saturday.
Pyfer has the wrestling and ground skills to keep this fight standing.
Still, I don’t expect Hermansson to have the durability to withstand consistent bombs from the American -especially inside the tiny Apex octagon where cutting the cage is simpler and inflicting violence for pressure fighters is made easy.
Pyfer Inside the Distance: The UFC Vegas 86 Best Bet Formula
The odds have placed Pyfer as a significant betting favorite, and I agree with the current -260 price tag. However, I agree with the oddsmaker’s stance, but that doesn’t mean we must accept the juice.
Attacking props in main event positions does present a risk.
Still, with three UFC bouts, three finishes, and a professional career that’s seen him go the distance just once –as opposed to an aging fighter who’s already been knocked out in the UFC on three occasions–, I believe Pyfer has tools such as speed and godlike power to put Hermansson out before the 25-minute allotted time limit.
I can envision a standing TKO, a one-punch knockout, or even a moment where Hermansson is dropped, and Pyfer grabs a neck to end the fight inside the distance.
With a near 100-point leap in price (-185), it’s a prop risk I’m willing to take.
UFC Pick: Pyfer Wins Inside the Distance (-185) [1.85u to win 1u] at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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