UFC Vegas 82 Punching Parlay
- Michael Morales ML [-285]
- Jose Johnson ML [-200]
Two Team Parlay (+103) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
The Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) is back home in Vegas with a slew of elite-level bouts, including a middleweight main event between Paul Craig and Brenden Allen, and today, we’re singling our locks on the card.
At the top sportsbooks, you’ll find two of our best bets from the UFC Vegas 82 fight card, and we’ve concluded that these juiced lines are worth the risk for this weekend’s event; continue reading to find the betting value.
UFC Vegas 82 Information
- Date & Time: Saturday, November 18, 2023 – 02:00 PM ET
- Location: UFC Apex, Las Vegas, Nevada
- Scheduled Fights: 14
- Main Event: Brendan Allen vs. Paul Craig (UFC Middleweight Bout)
Michael Morales vs. Jake Matthews
UFC Vegas 82 Welterweight Bout
Morales: The Story So Far
Six fights deep into his Morales, who commences his participation in the Apex event this upcoming weekend, boasts an impeccable record of 15-0, which encompasses triumphs in all three of his first UFC bouts. His objective this weekend will be to sustain his systematic progression inside the rankings.
After his notable display in Season 5 of Dana White’s Contender Series (DWCS), the Ecuadorian contender began his tenure on the official roster by securing victories over Trevin Giles and Adam Fugitt – both of which arrived via KO/TKO stoppages. In early July, he successfully progressed his career by defeating an experienced veteran, Max Griffin, via unanimous decision.
Morales Stats
- Pro MMA Record: 15-0-0
- Knockout Wins: 11
- Submission Wins: 1
Matthews: The Story So Far
Matthews, a 29-year-old fighter affiliated with the Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) for ten years, has amassed 12 additional instances of participation within the octagon compared to Morales’ tally of fights. The individual who previously competed in TUF Nations began his tenure in the welterweight division by securing triumphs in six out of seven matches.
Nevertheless, he has consistently recorded losses and victories in his previous four bouts. More notably, when the competition levels have risen, he’s often faltered, and without opposition that falters in grappling, he’s displayed untrustworthy traits.
Matthews Stats
- Pro MMA Record: 19-6-0
- Knockout Wins: 5
- Submission Wins: 8
UFC Vegas 82 Morales vs. Matthews: Skillset Breakdown
Matthews is an exceptionally challenging opponent to predict. As an illustration, he smothered Andre Fialho while resembling a reborn boxing prodigy. On the following outing, he is dropped multiple times by the relatively one-note Matthew Semelsberger. Wagering enthusiasts shouldn’t follow the talented Australian, as he is highly unpredictable.
In contrast, Morales is among the roster’s most gifted competitors under 25. The Ecuadorian recruit is monstrously powerful and strikes incredibly hard; what else could be more necessary in MMA for success?
Morales Moneyline Reasoning
Matthews is the more proficient wrestler in terms of technical prowess, submission grappling prowess, and combination punching acumen. I anticipate that Morales will deflect every takedown attempt made by Matthews within the cage and then repeatedly strike him in the face.
In addition, there’s no reason to suggest that Morales couldn’t have success on the ground of his own. Matthews has struggled against the upper echelon of competition. I believe the untrustworthiness we’ve witnessed arises once he’s faced with athletic and well-rounded opponents worthy of owning a UFC contract.
The available UFC odds favor Morales at -285, and while I wouldn’t rush to wager this as a straight wager, it’s the perfect parlay addition.
UFC Vegas 82 Punching Parlay Leg 1: Morales ML (-285) at Heritage Sports
Jose Johnson vs. Chad Anheliger
UFC Vegas 82 Bantamweight Bout
Johnson: The Story So Far
In his second Contender Series appearance (15-8), Jose Johnson secured a UFC contract by defeating unbeaten Jack Cartwright. A year later, he ultimately completed his first trek through the Octagon when he was defeated by a Da’Mon Blackshear somersault late in the first round.
But the kicker: Anheliger provides him an additional six inches of height and seven inches of reach this Saturday.
Johnson Stats
- Pro MMA Record: 15-8-0
- Knockout Wins: 5
- Submission Wins: 5
Anheliger: The Story So Far
Following his Contender Series victory over Muin Gafurov, Chad Anheliger defeated Jesse Strader in his UFC debut. Following that was Alatengheili, who defeated Anheliger by decision after outworking and outstriking him.
Anheliger Stats
- Pro MMA Record: 12-6-0
- Knockout Wins: 5
- Submission Wins: 5
UFC Vegas 82 Jose Johnson vs. Chad Anheliger: Skillset Breakdown
Despite Johnson’s flaws, Anheliger appears to have very few advantages in this matchup. Anheliger lacks the wrestling prowess necessary to exploit Johnson’s most vulnerable point, and the proportional inequality is patently unjust.
While Johnson may not consistently maintain a safe distance from his opponents, his durability and cardiovascular capacity enable him to keep pace with Anheliger throughout all three rounds, eliminating any possibility of Anheliger assembling a late rally.
Johnson Moneyline Reasoning
Johnson’s biggest past threats have stemmed from strong wrestlers or grapplers; Anheliger doesn’t pose this threat. Alongside the huge size discrepancy, it’s Johnson’s fight to lose, as I expect him to dominate the striking numbers without a threatening level of return fire.
The available UFC odds favor Johnson, and although it’s -200, it’s undoubtedly one of the better-priced favorite moneylines at UFC Vegas 82.
UFC Vegas 82 Punching Parlay Leg 1: Johnson ML (-200) at Heritage Sports
The UFC Vegas 82 Punching Parlay
- Morales ML [-285]
- Johnson ML [-200]
UFC Pick: Two Team Parlay (+103) [1u stake returns 1.03u profit] at Heritage Sports
UFC Vegas 82 Main Card & Odds
- Brendan Allen vs. Paul Craig [UFC middleweight main event bout]
- Jake Matthews vs. Michael Morales [UFC co-main welterweight bout]
- Jordan Leavitt vs. Chase Hooper [UFC lightweight bout]
- Payton Talbott vs. Nick Aguirre [UFC bantamweight bout]
- Amanda Ribas vs. Luana Pinheiro [UFC women’s strawweight bout]
- Uros Medic vs. Myktybek Orolbai Uulu [UFC welterweight bout]
UFC Vegas 82 Preliminary Card & Odds
- Nikolas Motta vs. Trey Ogden [UFC lightweight bout]
- Lucie Pudilova vs. Ailin Perez [UFC women’s bantamweight bout]
- Mick Parkin vs. Caio Machado [UFC heavyweight bout]
- Jonathan Pearce vs. Joanderson Brito [UFC featherweight bout]
- Chad Anheliger vs. Jose Johnson [UFC bantamweight bout]
- Charles Johnson vs. Rafael Estevam [UFC flyweight bout]
- Lucas Alexander vs. Jeka Saragih [UFC featherweight bout]
- Denis Tiuliulin vs. Christian Leroy Duncan (UFC middleweight bout)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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