Our Top Betting Pick for UFC Vegas 82
UFC Pick: Allen Wins Inside the Distance (-300) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
The UFC returns to the familiar Apex octagon in Nevada this weekend, as top contending middleweight fighters will trade blows in the evening’s main event, and we’re covering all your betting needs.
Two men who have found huge success in their jiu-jitsu offenses might be scrambling to the death as Brendan Allen and Paul Craig headline the event.
Read on for our complete betting guide with an early preview of the UFC Vegas 82 main event clash between Allen and Craig, including updated UFC odds and our free expert UFC first look betting picks, predictions, and analysis.
UFC Vegas 82 Event Information
- When: Saturday, November 18, 2023 – 02:00 PM ET
- Where: UFC Apex, Las Vegas
- Scheduled Bouts: 14
- Main Event: Brendan Allen vs. Paul Craig
- Moneyline Probability: Allen – 81.8% (-450) Craig – 22.2% (+350)
UFC Vegas 82 Main Event: Allen vs. Craig
Brendan “All In” Allen
With only two losses as a UFC competitor, the 27-year-old Brendan Allen must be respected for his consistent active streak since joining the promotion at the end of 2019. Since then, he’s competed twelve times, and despite losing twice, one of the said losses came against the current middleweight champ, Sean Strickland.
Now, avoiding defeat since 2021 versus Chris Curtis has placed Allen on a five-fight win streak and a breaching of the top 10 rankings. His rematch with Strickland could be sooner than we think, should he continue to dominate the opposition as he has done lately.
More impressively, four of Allen’s previous five wins came via rear naked choke, so the last thing you want to do as his opponent is give up your back!
Brendan Allen Combat Sports Accomplishments
- UFC Performance of the Night (Two times)
- Tied for second most submission wins in UFC Middleweight division history (5)
- LFA Middleweight Champion (Two times)
- IMMAF 2015 Amateur Middleweight Champion
Allen Best Moneyline Odds: -440 at BetOnline
Paul “Bearjew” Craig
Much like his weekend opponent, Scotland’s Paul Craig has become renowned as a UFC competitor with an excellent ability to stop fighters via submission. With 67% of his 9 UFC wins stemming from his jiu-jitsu offense, including the only loss on the record of current top contender Magomed Ankalaev’s record.
Craig has consistently fought to prove his worth, and time and time again, as a betting underdog, he’s defied the odds, including his most recent bout with Andre Muniz, as he sat with a +185 price tag but finished the Brazilian via round 2 ground and pound.
Paul Craig Combat Sports Accomplishments
- UFC Performance of the Night (Eight times)
- Second most performance of the night bonuses in UFC history (8)
- Most triangle choke submissions in UFC Light Heavyweight division history (4)
Craig Best Moneyline Odds: +350 at BetOnline
UFC Vegas 82 Allen vs. Craig: Tale of the Tape
UFC Vegas 82 Skillset Analysis: Styles Make Fights
This main event is so intriguing due to the fact that Allen won four of his last five bouts via rear-naked chokes, while Craig's grappling constitutes the Figh-Q examination. You will avoid the ground and compel the Scot to stand if you are prudent.
While there is no assurance of triumph, and Craig's striking has shown signs of improvement, employing this strategy has historically yielded the most favorable outcome for the Scot’s opponents. Will Brendan adhere to that blueprint, or will he tango and confront a flash-subber like Paul in the domain of grappling?
Craig has exceptional proficiency in the role of a formidable guard player. He has demonstrated this ability when defeating opponents such as Magomed Ankalaev, Jamahal Hill, and Nikita Krylov.
"Bearjew" does possess certain vulnerabilities, undoubtedly. He frequently exhibits vulnerability when confronted with a formidable opponent skilled in grappling. He becomes susceptible to adverse circumstances, primarily due to absorbing significant hits while actively seeking opportunities for submission maneuvers.
The UFC Vegas 82 Best Bet Formula
The available UFC odds at top sportsbooks have placed Allen as a significant betting favorite, and rightfully so.
Ultimately, this contest will likely hinge on which fighter can establish dominance on the ground before the other. Craig has a good chance of causing Allen an upset by putting him in a precarious position; however, the Scottish combatant is likely more prone to getting into a disadvantageous ground position.
'All In' places Craig in grave peril if he surrenders his back, and it is difficult to imagine Allen failing to reclaim that position at least once over five rounds.
UFC Pick: Allen Wins Inside the Distance (-300) at BetOnline [3u to win 1u]
UFC Vegas 82 Main Card & Odds
- Brendan Allen vs. Paul Craig [UFC middleweight main event bout]
- Jake Matthews vs. Michael Morales [UFC co-main welterweight bout]
- Jordan Leavitt vs. Chase Hooper [UFC lightweight bout]
- Payton Talbott vs. Nick Aguirre [UFC bantamweight bout]
- Amanda Ribas vs. Luana Pinheiro [UFC women’s strawweight bout]
- Uros Medic vs. Myktybek Orolbai Uulu [UFC welterweight bout]
UFC Vegas 82 Preliminary Card & Odds
- Nikolas Motta vs. Trey Ogden [UFC lightweight bout]
- Lucie Pudilova vs. Ailin Perez [UFC women’s bantamweight bout]
- Mick Parkin vs. Caio Machado [UFC heavyweight bout]
- Jonathan Pearce vs. Joanderson Brito [UFC featherweight bout]
- Chad Anheliger vs. Jose Johnson [UFC bantamweight bout]
- Charles Johnson vs. Rafael Estevam [UFC flyweight bout]
- Lucas Alexander vs. Jeka Saragih [UFC featherweight bout]
- Denis Tiuliulin vs. Christian Leroy Duncan (UFC middleweight bout)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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