UFC Vegas 73 First Look: Dern vs. Hill Betting Picks, Odds, and Predictions (Archive)
Our Top Betting Pick for UFC Vegas 73
Angela Hill vs. Mackenzie Dern: Angela Hill ML (+159) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
Angela Hill vs. Mackenzie Dern Key Facts
- Mackenzie Dern has 7 wins via submission.
- Dern has 6 first-round finishes.
- Hill has lost by submission on just two occasions.
- Hill hasn’t lost by submission since 2019.
In their return to the UFC Apex in Nevada, top contending women’s strawweight competitors will exchange leather for the evening’s main event, and we’re covering all your UFC picks and betting needs.
Grappling prodigy Mackenzie Dern looks to heighten her claim for title contention, but she’ll have to overcome the muay thai expertise of Angela Hill first.
Read on for our complete betting guide with an early preview of the UFC Vegas 73 main event clash between Dern and Hill, including updated UFC odds and our free expert UFC picks, predictions, and analysis.
UFC Vegas 73 Information
- When: Saturday, May 20, 2023 – 10:18 PM EDT
- Where: UFC Apex, Las Vegas
- Scheduled Bouts: 13
- Main Event: Angela Hill vs. Mackenzie Dern
- Moneyline Probability: Dern – 20.4% (-185) / Hill – 82% (+159)
UFC Vegas 73 Hill vs. Dern: Tale of the Tape
Angela Hill
- Age: 38
- Height: 5’3”
- Reach: 64.5”
- Nationality: United States
- Affiliation: Alliance MMA
- Current Streak: 2 wins
- Pro MMA Record: 15-12-0
- UFC Record: 10-12 [2 KO/TKO, 8 decisions]
- Moneyline Betting History (Last 3): +105 (won), +280 (won), +165 (lost)
Mackenzie Dern
- Age: 30
- Height: 5’4”
- Reach: 63”
- Nationality: United States
- Affiliation: Black House MMA
- Current Streak: 1 loss
- Pro MMA Record: 12-3-0
- UFC Record: 7-3 [4 submissions, 3 decisions]
- Moneyline Betting History (Last 3): -240 (lost), -120 (won), -195 (lost)
Fighter Profile: Angela Hill
Don’t allow the visually undesirable 15-12 MMA record of Angela Hill to deceive you. The Maryland native has competed against an elite level of competition since her professional debut in 2014. Hill literally built her MMA resume as a UFC competitor and has only fought five of her career bouts outside of the promotion.
To say Hill owns experience at the top level would be an understatement. She’s fought the who’s-who of the women’s strawweight division and, aged 38, has recently broken a 3-fight losing skid with back-back-to-back victories against young and hungry competitors in Lupita Godinez and Emily Ducote.
Angela Hill Combat Sports Accomplishments
- UFC Fight of the Night (three times)
- Most fights in UFC women’s strawweight division history (21)
- Second most fights in UFC women’s history (22)
- Most total strikes landed in UFC women’s strawweight division history (1922)
Hill Best Moneyline Odds: +159 at Heritage Sports
Fighter Profile: Mackenzie Dern
Many critics had pinned Mackenzie Dern as a future UFC champion before she arrived at the company in 2018. As one of the most decorated Brazilian jiu-jitsu practitioners in the UFC, she’s lived up to the hype for the most part, winning 4 of her 7 promotional victories via submission.
However, the competition has been stiffer as she’s risen through the rankings. From her previous three bouts, she’s lost two and failed to deliver any noteworthy BJJ skills in all three of those fights.
In an attempt to reach the title contention she was once tipped to achieve, Dern can put herself back into the championship picture with a dominant win over Hill. But can she utilize the grappling prowess she’s known for versus such a diverse and well-experienced striker?
Mackenzie Dern Combat Sports Accomplishments
- UFC Performance of the Night (three times)
- UFC Fight of the Night (one time)
- Most submission wins in UFC women’s strawweight division history (4)
- ADCC World Jiu-Jitsu Champion (2015)
- World Jiu-Jitsu Championship gold medallist (2015)
Dern Best Moneyline Odds: -185 at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
UFC Vegas 73 Main Event Fight Statistics
- Dern has a submission average of 1.82 per 15 minutes.
- Dern absorbs 4.39 significant strikes per minute.
- Hill lands 5.68 significant strikes per minute.
- Hill owns a 77% takedown defense.
UFC Vegas 73 Skillset Analysis: Styles Make Fights
Watching Marina Rodriguez spam the takedown attempts of Mackenzie Dern but then get completely dominated via grappling by Virna Jandiroba just two weeks ago reveals a lot.
While Dern is exceptional on the ground through her control, transitions, and submission attempts, her ability to take fights to the ground has displayed some red flags. And again, another opponent, Xiaonan Yan, easily avoided the ground, and Dern has been left helpless without this option to date.
Hill owns a high percentage takedown defense and has fought some of the best women’s wrestlers in the division. Her muay thai base would undoubtedly be too much for Dern to handle, and if she can spam takedown attempts, it’s difficult to envision her faltering in this contest.
Angela Hill ML: UFC Vegas 73 Best Bet Formula
The available UFC odds at U.S. betting sites have placed Dern as the betting favorite, but with one path to victory, ignoring the underdog in Hill would be foolish.
Hill is a complete mixed martial artist. Although she’s reaching the latter stage of her career, I do believe she owns a greater takedown defense than Marina Rodriguez – an opponent that dominated Dern – and can emulate an exact path to victory as the Brazilian did versus Dern.
UFC Pick: Angela Hill ML (+159) [1u to win 1.59u] at Heritage Sports
UFC Vegas 73 Main Card & Odds
- Mackenzie Dern vs. Angela Hill [UFC women’s strawweight main event bout]
- Edmen Shahbazyan vs. Anthony Hernandez [UFC co-main middleweight bout]
- Michael Johnson vs. Diego Ferreira [UFC lightweight bout]
- Andre Fialho vs. Joaquin Buckley [UFC Welterweight bout]
- Emily Ducote vs. Polyana Viana [UFC women’s catchweight bout]
UFC Vegas 73 Preliminary Card & Odds
- Maheshate vs. Viacheslav Borshchev [UFC lightweight bout]
- Karolina Kowalkiewicz vs. Vanessa Demopoulos [UFC women’s strawweight bout]
- Ilir Latifi vs. Rodrigo Nascimento [UFC heavyweight bout]
- Chase Hooper vs. Nick Fiore [UFC lightweight bout]
- Victoria Leonardo vs. Natalia Silva [UFC women’s flyweight bout]
- Takashi Sato vs. Themba Gorimbo [UFC welterweight bout]
- Orion Cosce vs. Gilbert Urbina [UFC Welterweight bout]
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.