UFC Vegas 51: Luque vs. Muhammad 2 Lock on the Card (Archive)
How’re we all feeling after UFC 273?
Cause… wow, what a show. And now we follow it up with a return to the Baby Cage (patent pending) this Saturday night as Vicente Luque and Belal Muhammad headline what it feels like the 467th UFC fight night of the year so far.
This card has some awesome welterweight standouts like Luque and Muhammad in the main event, but we’re gonna focus on another welterweight who is looking to re-establish himself: Miguel Baeza. So let’s break down the UFC odds for his bout.
Miguel Baeza vs. Andre Fialho
UFC Welterweight Bout
Saturday, April 16, 2022 – 10:05 PM EDT at UFC Apex
Betting Preview
Baeza is a bad, bad human who is coming off two straight losses to other bad, bad humans in Khaos Williams and Santiago Ponzinibbio and now has to face off against Andre Fialho.
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While Fialho fell to Michel Pereira in his UFC debut, the Brazilian fighter walked into the Octagon with a four-fight winning streak and all by KO/TKO, including a win over James Vick.
WHICH IS NOT A GOOD THING FOR MIGUEL BAEZA BECAUSE DUDE GOT GOT BY KHAOS WILLIAMS.
Betting Analysis
Anywho… Fialho may be a bad human being, but when he gets to the third round, things don’t go well for him, mainly being 2-3 when he gets past the second round.
And while Baeza’s record as of late, after the second round ain't great, it is an opportunity for Baeza to keep the boat afloat and stay in the welterweight mix. This gives you two potential roles, one being both fighters are super cautious and won’t go all out and just hope to get the win… OR VIOLENCE.
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And looking at both fighters’ records we'll give you the answer: Bet on violence!
Lock on the Card
Both of these guys need a win. Both of these guys want bonus money. More importantly, both of these guys could find themselves on the other side of a pink slip sooner than later.
And with the UFC releasing fighters such as Charles Oliveira who has notoriety but was on the wrong side of a four-fight losing streak, the pendulum could swing either’s way sooner rather than later.
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So, when you’re getting this week’s bets together for UFC Vegas 51, don’t look at either fighter as a lock to get the win, because UFC experience aside, Baeza’s own attempts to level up in competition have yielded him two straight losses and staring down a hungry competitor that sees him as a stepping stone.
With all of that in mind, BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review) has the under 1 ½ rounds at plus value and if I were looking to buy a solid gold boat for mom this Easter, I’d put it there for my UFC pick of the week.
UFC Vegas 51 Pick: Baeza/Fialho Under 1 ½ Rounds (+135) at BetOnline
Think I’m right? Feel like I’m wrong? Do you like Pina Coladas and getting caught in the rain? Let me know your thoughts on Twitter at MRyanConsulting or go find someone, grab them, hold them, and let them know my MMA takes are trash.
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.