UFC 304 Punching Parlay
- Aspinall/Blaydes Under 1½ Rounds (-170)
- Molly McCann ML (-340)
Two Team Parlay (+105) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
The Ultimate Fighting Championship last visited the United Kingdom for UFC 286, and not only did Leon Edwards retain his welterweight strap, but British fighters went 9-2 versus their overseas opponents.
With the UFC’s return to UK soil just two days away, I expect a similar outcome for the hometown favorites, and they will supplement our UFC 304 parlay betting needs for Saturday night’s octagon festivities.
UFC 304 Information
- Date & Time: Saturday, July. 27, 2024 – 06:00 p.m. ET
- Location: Co-Op Live, Manchester, England
- Scheduled Fights: 13
- Main Event: Leon Edwards vs. Belal Muhammad (UFC Welterweight Title Bout)
Tom Aspinall vs. Curtis Blaydes
UFC 304 Interim Heavyweight Title Bout
Aspinall: The Story So Far
As the first UFC heavyweight champion to stem from the United Kingdom, you can imagine the fandom and support of Tom Aspinall is unlike anything else. The British crowd are no strangers to making their presence known, and when their champ returns to defend on home soil, you should expect nothing less.
Jon Jones might be ducking Aspinall for more favorable matchups. Still, in our eyes, the man who defeated Serghei Pavlovich via KO/TKO and continues to be an active titleholder is the true heavyweight champ, interim status or not.
Aspinall puts his gold on the line versus the only fighter whose name presents a loss on his record. However, a freak injury was the reasoning, and outside of this, the champ defeated every opponent within six minutes or less.
- Aspinall Pro MMA Record: 14-3-0
- Aspinall Knockout Wins: 10
- Aspinall Submission Wins: 4
Blaydes: The Story So Far
Curtis Blaydes is a familiar face amongst MMA enthusiasts; he’s fought the who’s-who of UFC heavyweights, and for the most part, he’s excelled behind a heavy wrestling game and equally as heavy hands. That said, when the going gets tough, Blaydes has crumbled against heavy hitters, including Derrick Lewis, Pavlovich, and Francis Ngannou (twice).
- Blaydes Pro MMA Record: 18-4-0
- Blaydes Knockout Wins: 13
- Blaydes Submission Wins: 0
UFC 300 Aspinall vs. Blaydes: Skillset Breakdown
The game plan for Blaydes should be simple: close the distance, deploy a wrestling offense, and attempt to take Aspinall where he’s never been before… Into the later rounds and on his back. This, however, is a lot simpler to imagine, as opposed to playing out once the cage door closes.
Much like every opponent that’s faced Aspinall to date, handling the speed and power of the Brit is incredibly difficult. Additionally, while he’s most known for his fast footwork, precise striking combinations, and early knockout victories, he also holds a serious Brazilian jiu-jitsu game in his back pocket that we’ve only witnessed once (A submission victory over Arlovski).
This isn’t a striker versus grappler matchup as most anticipate; this is a wrestler with heavy hands facing off against the most nimble, fast, and athletic heavyweight we’ve ever seen. Could the wrestling game plan work? Sure, but Blaydes will want to end this early before the high-fight IQ of the favorite can adapt.
Under 1½ Rounds Reasoning
Aspinall’s moneyline price is juiced to the high heavens, so taking this approach doesn’t tickle my fancy. Yes, I will use a lot of British lingo during this breakdown because it’s an all-UK affair whenever the UFC is in our town.
However, back to the betting prediction, and at -170 UFC odds, how can we not see value in the under 1½ rounds? Aspinall hasn’t seen the second half of the second round since 2016, and all but one of his UFC wins arrived in the first round.
Even if you believe Blaydes is a live dog, backing the under is perfect insurance because the American has also seen under 1½ rounds in 7 of his previous 9 UFC bouts, thus creating a recipe for violence that will surely send this total under!
UFC Parlay Leg 1: Under 1½ Rounds (-170) at Heritage Sports
Molly McCann vs. Bruna Brasil
UFC 304 Women’s Strawweight Bout
McCann: The Story So Far
“Meatball” Molly McCann might not be a future title contender, but her stock outside of the cage has reached unthinkable heights because she leaves it all in the octagon every time.
Molly’s newfound position amongst the women’s strawweight couldn’t have gone better. The former flyweight debuted at 115lbs earlier this year and ripped the arm of Diana Belbita to secure her third stoppage win from the last four victories she’s achieved overall.
- McCann Pro MMA Record: 14-6-0
- McCann Knockout Wins: 6
- McCann Submission Wins: 1
Brasil: The Story So Far
Bruna Brasil isn’t a chump, but the Brazilian will make the long flight to British soil behind a 1-2 UFC record she’s collected since debuting early last year. More worryingly, her lone UFC win came against a very low-level Shuana Bannon, and three of the Brazilian’s four pro-MMA defeats came by way of knockout.
- Brasil Pro MMA Record: 9-4-1
- Brasil Knockout Wins: 3
- Brasil Submission Wins: 2
Molly McCann Moneyline Reasoning
Before you crucify me for the -350 moneyline on McCann, I’m completely aware that this price on a WMMA fight isn’t ideal. However, these odds have shifted 100 points since the opening price of -250. I believe it’s an extremely winnable fight for “Meatball,” making it a viable selection for parlay cannon fodder when looking to tip our odds into plus money.
Brasil isn’t terrible, but she isn’t great, either. McCann is quite a tidy boxer with some of the most potent power in the women’s weight classes. She can sometimes seem lethargic, but she’s undoubtedly going to land the bigger strikes in this contest, and Brasil won’t be kickboxing at range without being rushed by the aggressive Brit.
The available odds at the top sportsbooks heavily favor McCann, as previously mentioned, and while it wouldn’t touch such a price as a single WMMA bet, I do expect to see a clear level of competition disparity in this bout as the hometown favorite cruises to victory behind brute power, experience, and home support.
UFC Parlay Leg 2: McCann ML (-340) at Heritage Sports
The Parlay
- Aspinall/Blaydes Under 1½ Rounds (-170)
- Molly McCann ML (-340)
Two Team Parlay (+105) at Heritage Sports
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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