UFC 295 Punching Parlay: Excellent Betting Value on Two Flyweights at MSG (Archive)
UFC 295 Punching Parlay
- Joshua Van ML (-220)
- Steve Erceg ML (-193)
Two Team Parlay (+120) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
The Ultimate Fighting Championship makes its annual return to Manhattan, New York, with a top-tier light heavyweight main event between Jiri Prochazka and Alex Pereira spearheading the card, and today we’re singling our locks on the card.
Below, you’ll discover our two favorite wagers from the UFC 295 lineup, and we’ve concluded that these betting lines are worth placing in a parlay for added value; continue reading to find the betting value.
UFC 295 Information
- Date & Time: Saturday, November 11, 2023 – 06:00 PM ET
- Location: Madison Square Garden, New York
- Scheduled Fights: 13
- Main Event: Jiri Prochazka vs. Alex Pereira (UFC Light Heavyweight Championship)
Joshua Van vs. Kevin Borjas
UFC 295 Flyweight Bout
Van: The Story So Far
Joshua Van (8-1 pro-MMA) debuted in 2021, lost his third bout in Fury FC, and hasn’t looked back ever since. He’s now riding a six-fight win streak, including an impressive win over an experienced Zhalgas Zhumagulov in his UFC debut earlier this year.
Borjas: The Story So Far
Like his MSG opponent, Kevin Borjas (9-1-0 pro-MMA) is another fresh-faced fighter recently added to the flyweight division. The key difference is that Borjas hasn’t made his promotional debut, and aside from a Contender Series win in August, he hasn’t fought under the bright lights and is now making his debut in one of the most intimidating venues in combat sports.
UFC 295 Van vs. Borjas: Skillset Breakdown
Repetitive motions in the octagon, a UFC debut at MSG, and a questionable competition level in Inka FC don’t give me much hope for Borjas. He’s predominantly a striker, but unfortunately for him, he’ll face a more accurate and fundamentally evolved striker in Van.
Defensive frailties are present in Borjas’ game. He owns a noteworthy jab and is undoubtedly a scrapper. Still, I can’t envision Van losing a numbers battle versus an opponent that resets his offense from a 1-2 combination so often.
Joshua Van Moneyline Reasoning
The available UFC odds favor Van at -220, and although I’m afraid I have to disagree with this number, it’s respectable enough to place in a parlay wager.
Borjas will throw power strikes in groups of two, while Van will gain an edge over the defensive concerns of his opponent with three to four-strike combinations.
UFC 295 Punching Parlay Leg 1: Joshua Van ML (-220) at BetOnline
Steve Erceg vs. Alessandro Costa
UFC 295 Flyweight Bout
Erceg: The Story So Far
Australian native Steve Erceg (10-1-0 pro-MMA) is a long way from home, but with back-to-back UFC pay-per-view events about to touch his record, he’s already tackled a promotional debut on a big stage, and we should expect him to eat up the spotlight this weekend.
What’s so impressive about Erceg’s debut back at UFC 289 is the fact that he overcame David Dvorak as a short-notice replacement. He entered this contest as a +240 underdog, won all three rounds, and proved himself to be a respectable flyweight contender moving forward.
Costa: The Story So Far
Alessandro Costa is a wrecking machine (13-3-0 pro-MMA) with four KO/TKO victories from his previous six bouts. He faltered to Amir Albazi in his UFC debut, but a round two ground and pound dominance over Jimmy Flick in his return bout proved his worth while silencing the doubters.
UFC 295 Erceg vs. Costa: Skillset Breakdown
Brazil’s own Alessandro Costa is by no means a slouch in the octagon. However, it isn’t easy to envision a path to victory beyond a surprise knockout. He does an excellent job of mixing his strikes but said strikes are limited with hooks, haymakers, and low kicks.
However, the short and stocky stature alongside a limited output will cost him dearly over an opponent like Erceg. The Australian betting favorite, in my opinion, has displayed early signs of becoming a top-15-ranked fighter.
Watching Erceg defeat a 20-5-0 David Dvorak on short notice was incredibly impressive, and now, with a full fight camp behind him, I expect the complete MMA skill set to shine through.
Steve Erceg Moneyline Reasoning
As previously mentioned, Costa is limited in his attack. While he does a noteworthy job of breaking his opponents down, I believe Erceg’s size and versatile skillset will have more than enough to keep him out of danger.
The available odds at the top sportsbooks aren’t providing the best value. Still, again, it’s a tailormade number for fighter’s were confident in, but with prices that aren’t viable through a straight wager.
UFC 295 Punching Parlay Leg 2: Steve Erceg Moneyline (-193) at BetOnline
The UFC 295 Punching Parlay
- Joshua Van ML [-220]
- Steve Erceg ML [-193]
UFC Pick: Two Team Parlay (+120) [1u stake returns 1.20u profit] at BetOnline
UFC 295 Main Card & Odds
- Jiri Prochazka vs. Alex Pereira [UFC light heavyweight main event bout]
- Sergei Pavlovich vs. Tom Aspinall [UFC co-main heavyweight bout]
- Jessica Andrade vs. Mackenzie Dern [UFC women’s strawweight bout]
- Matt Frevola vs. Benoit Saint-Denis [UFC lightweight bout]
- Pat Sabatini vs. Diego Lopes [UFC featherweight bout]
UFC 295 Preliminary Card & Odds
- Steve Erceg vs. Alessandro Costa [UFC flyweight bout]
- Mateusz Rebecki vs. Roosevelt Roberts [UFC lightweight bout]
- Tabatha Ricci vs. Lupita Godinez [UFC women’s strawweight bout]
- Nazim Sadykhov vs. Viacheslav Borshchev [UFC lightweight bout]
- Jared Gordon vs. Mark Madsen [UFC lightweight bout]
- Kyung Ho Kang vs. John Castaneda [UFC bantamweight bout]
- Joshua Van vs. Kevin Borjas [UFC flyweight bout]
- Dennis Buzukja vs. Jamall Emmers [UFC featherweight bout]
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.