UConn vs. St. John’s NCAA Basketball Preview and Best Bet (Archive)
The Connecticut Huskies will visit the St. John’s Red Storm in a near must-win for the Connecticut Huskies. Who will win this Big East matchup? Let’s break down the NCAAB odds.
UConn Huskies vs St. John’s Red Storm
Sunday, February 13, 2022 – 12:00 PM EST at Madison Square Garden
The Connecticut Huskies have lost three of their last four games and are currently looking for answers. The Huskies are still 7-5 in conference play and absolutely a Tournament team, but a win against St. John’s, at Madison Square Garden is pretty necessary at this point.
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St. John’s, on the other hand, just lost to Villanova, 75-69, at home, and are now 5-7 in conference play. The Huskies are currently the better offense. Connecticut is shooting an effective field goal percentage of 49.8 percent while earning 38.2 percent offensive rebounds.
This is one area where St. John’s struggles, as the Red Storm, are already allowing teams to gain 33 percent of offensive rebounds this season. Connecticut is also shooting 35.2 percent from deep this team and should get to the line at a very high pace.
The Huskies aren’t nearly as good shooting the basketball inside the arc, but they’ve got enough skill to put in work down low. St. John’s has not defended the three all that well this season, allowing opponents to shoot 36.5 percent from deep this season.
However inside, the Red Storm allows teams to shoot just 45.6 percent, which is an area where St. John’s can really have success if they’re looking to win today’s game. On the other hand, the Red Storm are shooting a 50.4 percent effective field goal percentage.
St. John’s is shooting 33.3 percent from deep and 50.6 percent from inside the arc this season. You will rarely see the Red Storm turn the ball over at a high rate and just like Connecticut, the Red Storm can work the offensive glass, earning 32.5 percent offensive rebounds.
St. John’s most likely won’t have the same amount of success on the offensive boards, but second-chance opportunities will be there for the Red Storm to help them capitalize on some missed shots. Connecticut is allowing opponents to shoot 34.5 percent from deep but just 42.2 percent from inside the arc. The Red Storm really relies more on inside shots than outside shots.
Prediction
The total for this game is sitting at 150.5 and that just seems too high for a Connecticut game. Both teams are elite at defending inside the arc and both of these teams don’t just have a three-point trigger every time they catch the ball behind the arc.
The Red Storm are one of the fastest offenses in the nation, but Connecticut should be able to slow them down a bit, especially knowing how great they’ve been inside the arc this season.
If you’re betting this total, understand that everything needs to go right for any game to reach 150 or more points. But both teams are so great inside defensively, so for our NCAAB picks, I don’t see how this game has a chance of going over.
NCAAB Pick: Under 150.5 (-110) with BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.