UCLA vs. USC NCAA Basketball Picks and Odds Analysis (Archive)
The UCLA Bruins will look to start a new two-game winning streak, on the road, against the USC Trojans. Does UCLA have what it takes? Let’s break down the NCAAB odds for this matchup!
UCLA Bruins vs. USC Trojans
Saturday, February 12, 2022 – 10:00 PM EST at Galen Center
The UCLA Bruins will take a trip to USC to take on the Trojans in a massive Pac-12 conference matchup. USC is currently 20-4 on the season but hasn’t played UCLA yet this year. Meanwhile, UCLA has lost two of its last three games and doesn’t look nearly as good as they did earlier this season. UCLA is still one of the best offenses in the nation.
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The Bruins are shooting an effective field goal percentage of 50.7 percent but turn the ball over just 13.3 percent of the time. USC isn’t going to force many turnovers, earning just 15.1 percent turnovers per game.
The Bruins are shooting 34.3 percent from deep along with 50.4 percent from inside the arc. You won’t see UCLA get to the foul line at a high rate, but the Bruins will usually dominate the offensive glass, earning 31.3 percent offensive rebounds.
Meanwhile, USC is holding opponents to a 43.8 percent effective field goal percentage. That means opponents are struggling from the field against USC, hitting just 31.9 percent from deep and 41.5 percent from inside the arc.
The Trojans have also limited opponents to 26.2 percent offensive rebounds, but the big thing again is how great USC has been defending inside. UCLA isn’t taking a high amount of threes, so most of their shots are coming inside, where USC dominates defensively.
On the other hand, USC is a quality offense that is shooting an effective field goal percentage of 51.3 percent. Just like UCLA, the Trojans will rarely turn the ball over. However, USC is much better on the offensive glass, earning 34.2 percent of offensive rebounds.
Despite USC being great at getting to the line, the Trojans shot just 64.4 percent from the line this season. Eventually, that number is going to come back to haunt them. It might not be this game, but it’ll be in a big game where USC struggles at the line and then ultimately doesn’t win a game because of it.
Right now, UCLA has been fine defensively and is above average in almost every category. The Bruins have held teams to a 47.8 percent effective field goal percentage while earning 20 percent turnovers and limiting offensive rebounds to 25.4 percent this season.
Prediction
It’s always hard to win a conference game on the road, but analytically, UCLA is flat out the better team. The Trojans could earn more second chances but ultimately, UCLA is the better rebounding team on the defensive end.
These Pac-12 teams won’t shoot a high amount of three-point shots and the foul line won’t be a gift either for these teams. For our NCAAB picks, therefore, I’ll take the under 136.5 in this matchup.
NCAAB Pick: Under 136.5 (-110) with BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
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