Saturday features a pair of Pac-12 rivals as UCLA travels to Stanford after a stunning loss to Fresno State while the Cardinal is bracing for impact after winning its last two contests. Let’s handicap this intriguing matchup and determine which side is the sharp side.
Saturday, September 25, 2021 – 06:00 PM EDT at Stanford Stadium
The Bruins opened the season with a convincing, 44-10, victory over Hawaii, easily covering the 18-point impost and bringing the money home for all those who backed UCLA in their college football picks.
But the true test of their powers would come the following week when they welcomed SEC entry and the No. 16 ranked team in the nation, LSU, to the West Coast. The oddsmakers made the Tigers a one-point road favorite but it was the Bruins who outgunned them in a big, 38-27, victory.
Entering last week, it was so far so good – really good – for UCLA and a win over visiting Fresno State almost seemed like a foregone conclusion.
The best online sportsbooks were dealing the Bruins as 11-point home chalk but the Bulldogs came to play. When the dust settled, Fresno State’s senior slinger, Jake Haener, torched the Bruins for 455 yards and completed over 73 percent of his passes with a pair of TDs en route to a 40-37 upset road win.
It was a back-and-forth game with UCLA taking the lead with under a minute left to play but Haener engineered a six-play, 75-yard drive that took all of 40 seconds and culminated in an eighteen yards touchdown pass with only fourteen seconds remaining in the contest.
"I think the quarterback is a special player," UCLA coach Chip Kelly said. "We threw everything at him. We blitzed him, played cover zero, rushed three, and dropped everyone else back into coverage. I think we threw the entire kitchen sink at him and he handled everything."
UCLA’s senior quarterback, Dorian Thompson-Robinson, completed 14-of-24 passes for 278 yards and three touchdowns while adding 67 rushing yards. Junior tailback, Zach Charbonnet, only had six carries for nineteen yards but made them count with a pair of trips to the end zone.
Stanford opened their season with a 24-7 neutral-site loss to Kansas State but bounced back with an enormous 42-28 upset over No.14 USC as 18-point road dogs. The Cardinal followed that up with another road win last week when they defeated Vanderbilt in their own sandbox, 41-23, and cashed as 13-point road chalk.
Sophomore quarterback, Tanner McKee, passed for two touchdowns and rushed for another in the victory. The Cardinal had four running backs in double-digit rushing yards with junior, Austin Jones, leading the way with 80 of Stanford’s 204 combined rushing yards.
Coming home will be a well-deserved reward for the Cardinal after playing their final four games of last year on the road and their first three on the highway this season.
"It’s been a long time," Stanford coach David Shaw said. "Was kind of being facetious at the end of the game. We have to give the guys a map to the game-day locker room. We haven’t been there in so long. We’re excited. We’re excited to finally be able to go home. It’s been a long road trip."
As we scan the college football odds so early in the week, we can see that UCLA is being offered as anywhere between a 5 ½ and 6-point road favorite in this one. But here’s a rather shocking stat if you’re unfamiliar with this annual rivalry; Stanford has won twelve of the last thirteen meetings between the schools and has covered the number in seven of their last eight contests.
But now we see that they’re getting a full six points by the oddsmakers over at Bovada as well as, what should be an emotional lift from the partisan crowd, waiting to see their team finally play in their home stadium. And while I understand UCLA is averaging 39.7 points per game versus 30 PPG for the Cardinal, I’m not sure that is the telltale sign of what will happen on Saturday.
I see Stanford containing the Bruins’ rushing attack and keeping pace through the air. UCLA showed a lethargic defense last week against a far less equipped offense than they will face this week. Stanford has already slain one giant this season, why not another this week? Let’s grab the points with the home hound here.
NCAAF Pick: Stanford +6 (-120) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.