This matchup features the best team in the American League against one the worst in the junior circuit. Sounds like a complete blowout, right? Let’s investigate. It has been a long season for Minnesota and after falling to Cincinnati yesterday, the Twins have 54 more games to play before they can put this season behind them.
Houston on the other hand wants to keep building and get back to the World Series and prove they can be champions without banging on garbage cans. Houston is back home after a 4-4 road trip taking on two of the best in the National League in the Giants and Dodgers and a tough club in Seattle who is fighting for a playoff berth. Top online sportsbooks like Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review) have the Astros as supersized -232 favorites when we last reviewed their betting odds.
Thursday, August 5, 2021 – 8:10 PM EDT at Minute Maid Park
The Twins (45-63, -30.3 units) have been fun to watch the last several years, with their ability to take the ball out of the park and score runs. Generally, the offense is a little weaker this season at 4.6 runs a game, nevertheless, that is still strong enough to rank 12th in the majors. What turned Minnesota into a bad baseball team is a complete lack of pitching in all facets. The Twins pitching staff is allowing 5.3 runs per game and they do it in a variety of ways.
The Twinkies starting pitching ERA is 24th and the bullpen is 25th, so matter how you look at it, this offers little help. For the Minnesota hitters, say their pitchers give up five runs the first two innings and it’s 5-zip. Over the next few innings, the Minny offense cranks out four runs to make it a 5-4 deficit and the bench is alive again. In comes a new reliever who is tagged for three runs and just like that the Twins are down four again and the spirit is gone. The pitchers have to give the batters a chance.
For those fixated on Houston’s cheating scandal, it is time to let it go. Was it wrong? Of course. Should the franchise have been punished more harshly? Undoubtedly. While we have no issue about opposing team fans still booing, let’s look at where we are. Houston has the best record in the AL at 65-43 (+3.8). They have the 4th-best home record and 2nd-best road mark in baseball. That’s consistency and stability.
What shapes manager Dusty Baker’s club is a 1-thru-9 batting order that keeps continual pressure on defenses with the best offense in the majors at 5.4 RPG. There is no bottom of the order breather and the defense is under pressure also, because no team strikes less than the Astros. What keeps the runs coming is finding a player like Yordan Alveraz, who has 48 homers and 151 rbi in his first 180 games with Houston.
Or deciding to turn the centerfield job over to a 26-year rookie Chas McCormick, who has 10 deep balls and 17 extra base hits in only 164 at bats and who covers a lot of ground patrolling the middle of the outfield. This is what winning organizations do, they develop or find players that make their team better.
Minnesota will send out Griffin Jax (1-1, 6.41 ERA) who will make his fourth consecutive start after being called up in June as a long reliever. Jax is a lanky right-hander who is allowing almost a hit an inning (25 in 26 1/3) and he’s been taken yard seven times already.
Not great numbers going against Houston’s offense. Framber Valdez is having a very good year for Dusty Baker at 7-2 with a 3.01 ERA. The left-hander stumbled a few times last month mostly due to control issues, walking 24 in 33 1/3 innings. That’s not his normal of pitching, as he’s an extreme worm-burner hurler, at almost 3-to-1 grounders to fly balls.
For MLB picks, the money line is too high to play on Houston and besides, they are 5-14 (-22.8 Units) vs. a team with a weak bullpen whose ERA is 4.70 or worse and they could be a touch flat after playing San Fran and Dodger Blue. We’ll snag the run line for value instead where we turned up Minnesota is 2-10 against the run line in road games vs. an AL starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.40 or better and Valdez and his Astros pals are 9-1 against the RL after giving up two or less earned runs in his last two outings.
MLB Pick: Astros -128 at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.