The Nuggets come into the playoffs bloody and worn down, but with hoem court advantage against the visiting Blazers. In what could be one of the more entertaining series in the West, who is the value play in Game 1’s NBA Odds
Saturday, May 22, 2021 – 10:30 PM EDT at Ball Arena
A little over a month ago, the Nuggets’ chances of making a deep run in the Western Conference snapped along with Jamal Murray’s ACL. After the performance Murray put on in the bubble last season, it was almost expected that this team makes a deep run into the playoffs. Now those dreams seem to be dashed. Although Denver is still very good and has what it takes to make it to the second round and beyond, I’m not sold they do.
The main reason for that is the lack of Murray, but a close second to not having their second superstar is their matchup here in the first round. Portland is a horrible matchup for this team sans Murray. Having to deal with Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum is already a tough two-headed monster to try and stop, but now, without Murray as a counter and with P.J. Dozier likely sitting out Game 1 and potentially beyond for this team, they are at a huge disadvantage in the backcourt.
If Lillard and McCollum are getting free for open shots, Nikola Jokic alone won’t be enough for the Nuggets to overcome a barrage from the Blazers. On top of this, the Nuggets are very strong on the wing, but so are the Blazers. Norm Powell and Robert Covington are both plus defenders and they are going to give Michael Porter Jr. all he can handle in this series.
When it comes down to it, the Blazers just matchup really well against this Nuggets team. At least for Game 1, I think that plays into the road team winning. All Portland needs to do is win Game 1 or 2 to shift this series into their favor. That is very doable with the Nuggets missing two of their best guards and potentially missing a third.
If Will Barton continues to be out for the Nuggets, that may be all I need here. I even think the Blazers can win this game despite Barton playing, but we’ll see what his status us before making a decision. Barton has been out for several weeks and it will be very tough for him to make a huge impact in a playoff series after not playing since late April. Denver’s offense is potent, no doubt. However, without a number of their top guards, their playoff offense may be easier to predict. Double-teaming or ball denying Jokic is the first step.
The Blazers can’t stand Jokic going off for a triple-double. However, what they can stomach is Porter Jr. or Aaron Gordon going off. If they hold Jokic to under 20 points and prevent him from dishing out a ton of assists, they will win here. If Portland can keep Jokic isolated and double-teamed, they can guard the other important players for Denver here.
Saying Portland can guard anyone is probably laughable and I understand that. However, this is the playoffs. If their defense doesn’t come to play here in Game 1, it won’t come at all in these playoffs. Portland scrapped and clawed in order to get out of the play-in tournament and into this series, and I think it’s because they truly believe they are the better team. I agree, at least for Game 1.
NBA Pick: Blazers -105 at Heritage Sports