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Trail Blazers vs. Kings NBA Picks: Can Sacramento Slow Down the Pace? (Archive)

Originally published on November 24, 2021

The Sacramento Kings look to get back on track when they host the Portland Trail Blazers on Wednesday night. Here’s a complete preview, including betting odds and free NBA picks.

Portland Trail Blazers vs. Sacramento Kings

Wednesday, November 24, 2021 – 10:00 PM EST at Golden 1 Center

The Trail Blazers opened at -2.5 at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review) and FiveThirtyEight have them at PK, giving them a 50 percent chance to win. For support, we turn to USA Today’s Jeff Sagarin’s projections; he has the Trail Blazers at -1.83 using his Rating numbers and at -4.42 using his eigenvector analysis. This leaves a 2.5-point gap between the FiveThirtyEight projections for the Kings and the actual NBA odds. BetOnline set the total at 226 and Sagarin projects these two teams to combine for 220.97 points.

Can Somebody Save These Teams?

The Trail Blazers (10-8 SU and 8-9-1 ATS) have been inconsistent, so maybe we should just insta-fade them as 2.5-point road faves. I thought that the Trail Blazers would be fine after their October 29 home game against the Clippers. Damian Lillard went just 6-for-35 from beyond the arc to start the season but he went 5-for-7 that night to lead his team to a 111-92 victory as 3.5-point home favorites on the closing NBA lines.

Lillard was expected to regress to the mean but Portland is just 7-6 SU and 5-7-1 ATS since. It’s a small sample size at 17 games, but Lillard’s 0.0 Box Plus/Minus is his career-low. It seems that this roster isn’t built for his talents – with Jusuf Nurkic (plus-1.5 Box Plus/Minus) and Cody Zeller (minus-1.3 Box Plus/Minus) at center, neither a threat from distance.

The Kings (6-12 SU, 7-11 ATS) fired head coach Luke Walton on Sunday and named Alvin Gentry interim coach. Walton led them to 31-41 records in each of his first two seasons but didn’t take a step forward this year and was let go after losing seven of their last eight games under him. Sacramento lost 102-94 as 2.5-point home faves against a depleted Philadelphia team last Monday in Gentry’s first game in charge. The Kings have now lost four straight games and they’re 2-7 in their last nine home games.

https://twitter.com/SacramentoKings/status/1463205797161320457

Prediction

I’m putting the Under in our NBA picks for Wednesday’s matchup. Both teams run the floor at a relatively fast pace but the Under is 11-6-1 for the Kings and 9-9 for the Trail Blazers. Portland will play the second game of a back-to-back after last night’s 119-100 home win against Denver as 10-point home faves and they had to travel while Sacramento has a new head coach that players still need to get used to in Alvin Gentry and they rank 17th in the NBA with just 105.3 points per 100 possessions.

NBA Pick: Under 226 (-110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.