UFC 258: Usman vs. Covington 2 is a beautiful stacked card from top to bottom. We have yet another week of two title bouts; the co-main will consist of the rematch between the current Champ, Rose Namajunas and Weili Zhang. In the main event, Kamaru Usman will get a shot at defending his belt against Colby Covington. Read below for my UFC Prediction for Justin Gaethje vs. Michael Chandler.
UFC Lightweight Bout
Saturday, November 6, 2021 – 10:00 PM EST at Madison Square Garden
Justin Gaethje is an American mixed martial artist currently ranked #2 in the UFC Lightweight division and #15 in the UFC men’s pound-for-pound rankings. The Highlight is also a former Interim UFC Lightweight Champion.
Gaethje started wrestling at a very young age and became a four-time finalist and two-time state champion in high school. He then pursued his wrestling career in college where he was recently inducted into the University of Northern Colorado Athletics Hall of Fame for his wrestling achievements.
After compiling an amateur record of 7-0, Gaethje made his professional debut in August 2011 against Kevin Croom. The Highlight won via KO in the first round. After compiling another 7-0 professional record, he was signed by the World Series of Fighting in 2012. His debut was against Gesias Cavalcante in 2013 and won via TKO in the first round due to a doctor stoppage.
After 3 stoppage victories, he gained a shot at the title against Richard Parishnock on January 18, 2014. Gaethje defeated Patishnock via TKO in the first round becoming the WSOF Lightweight Champion. He defended his title 5 times.
In 2017, Gaethje vacated his WSOF title and signed with the UFC. His debut was against Michael Johnson and won via TKO in the second round. He eventually won the Interim UFC Lightweight Championship in May 2020 against Tony Ferguson, he dominated the fight and won via TKO in the fifth round.
Some of Justin Gaetjhe’s professional accomplishments include: World Series of Fighting Lightweight Championship (one time), most consecutive WSOF title defenses (5), Interim UFC Lightweight Championship (one time), UFC Fight of the Night (five times), UFC Performance of the Night (four times), and many more.
Michael Chandler is an American mixed martial artist currently ranked #4 in the UFC Lightweight division. Chandler has a strong background in wrestling which began in high school where he was the Most Valuable Wrestler.
He then took an athletic scholarship to the University of Missouri and was a four time NCAA Division I qualifier in wrestling where he has 100 career wins.
Chandler’s professional MMA debut at Xtreme Couture against Kyle Swadley and won via TKO in the first round. In 2009, Chandler signed with Strikeforce and debuted against Richard Bouphanouvong - he won via TKO in the second round.
In 2019, Chandler then made his Bellator debut against Scott Stapp; he won via T/KO in the first round. Fast forward to 2011, Chandler had a shot at the Bellator title against Eddie Alvarez; he defeated Alvarez via submission in the fourth round.
It was then announced in 2020 that Michael Chandler had signed with the UFC to serve as a backup for the title fight between Khabib Nurmagomedov and Justin Gaethje. However, he made his debut against Dan Hooker in January 2021 and won via T/KO in the first round, earning himself the Performance of the Night bonus.
Some of Michael Chandler’s accomplishments include: Bellator Lightweight World Championship (three times), Most submission victories in Bellator Lightweight division (6), Tied for most fights in Bellator history (23), UFC Performance of the Night (one time), and many more.
The UFC Odds for this matchup at your Top Sportsbooks are: Justin Gaethje -205 and Michael Chandler +174 via BetOnline (Visit our BetOnline Review).
This is going to be the best scrap on the card, in my opinion. Both Gaethje and Chandler have an elite wrestling background and knockout-power hands.
However, there are still key differences between the two.
Justin Gaethje likes to apply forward pressure, and also has a very high output with 7.4 significant strikes per minute. He is very technical in his striking, and his overhand right is his best weapon and he adds in his piercing leg kicks to weaken his opponents.
Since Gaethje is always applying forward pressure, he typically eats a lot of shots and is clearly not afraid to get hit. But this doesn’t worry me too much since his chin is made of pure steel.
Michael Chandler also loves to apply that forward pressure in his wide and low boxing base; this low base helps him secure takedowns. His output isn’t as high as Gaethje’s, with 4.5 significant strikes per minute, but he also has that same fight-ending knockout power as Gaethje.
Both fighters have such elite boxing and wrestling skills, but one fighter holds the most disadvantages - Michael Chandler.
Chandler’s chin has been cracked before in the past since he has been knocked out four times, and his wide base leaves his legs wide open to Gaethje’s piercing leg kicks.
To me, Chandler’s path to victory will be on the ground; Wear down Gaethje with his wrestling and secure a submission. Gaethje’s path to victory is standing; he should crack leg kicks on Chandler to slow him down, and will land a heavy overhand right to call lights out. Gaethje has the more advantages in this matchup, and since he has juiced UFC odds at -205 via BetOnline, I’ll go to the MMA Props and take Gaethje inside the distance.
UFC Pick: Justin Gaethje Inside the Distance -130 via BetOnline (Visit our BetOnline Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.