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Texans vs. Browns NFL Week 2 Picks and Odds Analysis (Archive)

Originally published on September 13, 2021

The Houston Texans descend on the Dawg Pound to take on the Cleveland Browns in week 2 of the 2021 NFL season. Get set for this game with this betting preview and free NFL pick.

Houston Texans vs. Cleveland Browns

Sunday, September 19, 2021 – 01:00 PM EDT at FirstEnergy Stadium

Houston Texans Open With a Win

The Houston Texans opened their 2021 campaign with a 37-21 win over the Jacksonville Jaguars. Gambling sites didn’t give the Texans much of a chance, despite having a home advantage in their season home opener. The Texans closed as the 3.5-point home underdogs on the NFL odds board.

After all the offseason personnel upheaval and the controversy and drama surrounding Deshawn Watson, few would have predicted the David Culley era would get off to such a convincing start with a huge win over a divisional rival.

At the conclusion of week 1, the Houston Texans emerged as the only winners in the AFC South, after both the Tennessee Titans and Indianapolis Colts lost their season openers too. The Texans are 1-0-0 on the season and 1-0-0 ATS with a 16-point winning margin.

Tyrod Taylor went 21 of 33 for 291 yards and 2 touchdowns with no interceptions. Mark Ingram II led the team in rushing with 85 yards on 26 carries and a touchdown while Phillip Lindsay had 25 rushing yards and a touchdown.

Brandon Cooks led the team in receiving with 132 yards on 5 receptions but Danny Amendola, who totted up 34 yards on five receptions, had a touchdown. Overall, the Texans had 449 yards of total offense.

The defense gave up 395 yards of total offense, which included 319 passing yards and just 76 yards rushing.

Cleveland Browns Come Up Short at Arrowhead

The Cleveland Browns threw the kitchen sink at the Kansas City Chiefs but still came up short in a 33-39 loss at Arrowhead Stadium on Sunday.

The Browns got off to a bright start and had the Chiefs right where they wanted them for the better part of the four quarters of the game. Going into the second half, the Browns were feeling good about themselves with a 22-10 lead over the highly fancied Chiefs.

Going into the fourth quarter, the Browns moved ahead 29-20 with 10:24 remaining. But then the Chiefs did what the Chiefs do. They flipped the script in the blink of an eye, scoring two touchdowns in the space of three minutes and six seconds, and ran away with the game.

In the lead-up to the game, the Browns were tight-lipped. Holding back interviews and media appearances ahead of this much-anticipated playoff rematch.

On the day of the game, Baker Mayfield tweeted simply “Talk is cheap. Let’s get started.” The tweet was accompanied by a clip that featured comments from some of Cleveland’s harshest critics and naysayers.

Ironically, the game came down to Mayfield. With 2:49 left in the game and the Browns trailing 33-29, the former No.1 draft pick had an eternity to show what he can do. Prove that the Browns are deserving of the hype this season and that he can go toe-to-toe with Patrick Mahomes for a whole game and triumph.

Alas, at the time of asking, Mayfield faltered and threw a costly interception that sealed the victory for the hosts to the delight of a packed Arrowhead Stadium.

The Browns slipped to a 0-1-0  SU start on the season, but they are a positive 1-0-0 ATS after covering as the closing 5.5-point underdogs.

Lessons to Be Learned

How much stock should bettors put in Houston’s victory in week 1? The answer: not much, if at all since the Jaguars are a redevelopment project under new head coach Urban Meyer and the No.1 draft pick Trevor Lawrence. The coach and quarterback are unproven and untested in the NFL and the Jaguars, on the whole, have a long way to go.

For three-and-a-half quarters, the Browns took it to the presumptive Super Bowl betting faves, the Kansas City Chiefs. If there’s a lesson to be had from the narrow 33-29 loss, it’s that it takes all four quarters to win a game. The Browns have to be better if they hope to compete against the established heavyweights in the game. Fortunately, the Texans are the total opposite according to online sportsbook odds.

They’re amongst the longshots in the league this season, which means this is a matchup that the Browns absolutely must win. To lose to the Texans would be terrible optics, to say the least.

The Texans vs. Browns matchup marks Cleveland’s season home-opening game at the Dawg Pound. The atmosphere is bound to be electric at FirstEnergy Stadium and the Browns will be eager to give their fans something to cheer about in a bounce-back performance in week 2. But the Browns can’t take anything for granted as the Texans won outright as underdogs at home last week.

The Pick

Across multiple sports betting platforms, the Browns open as massive home favorites laying 12.5 points to the Texans. That’s a whole lot of points to be giving either way; most especially, to Cleveland. The Browns aren’t exactly world-beaters, are they?

Even in 2020, during Cleveland’s banner season, the Browns put in mixed performances that didn’t always fall in line with the NFL odds. Overall, the Browns finished last season with a 6-10-0 ATS record and with a minus three-point differential against the spread, which includes a 10-7 win over the Texans.

The Texans were a mess last season. They were sporting a 2-6 SU record before the week 10 date at NRG Stadium, but the Browns still came up short as the -4.5 road faves.

Tyrod Taylor led the Texans to a big win. It might have been against a lesser team [Jaguars], but it was an important confidence-boosting win. Nobody was buying what the Texans were selling and that included Tyrod Taylor and what he brought to the table. He was considered a huge step down from Deshawn Watson.

Of course, this isn’t the first time that Taylor has been overlooked and underrated. Last year, he lost the starting job in Los Angeles to Justin Herbert through no fault of his own. A botched procedure punctured his lungs and side-lined him in week 2.

Before that, he was sent packing out of Buffalo after they’d drafted Josh Allen in 2018 and then, a few months later, he was replaced by Baker Mayfield in Cleveland (the No.1 draft pick in 2018).

This trend to overlook and dismiss Taylor lends an intriguing backstory to this matchup as he prepares to face one of his replacements. It must irk him a bit too. Although he’s too classy to say anything publicly.

Taylor may never be considered an elite quarterback but he’s a good one. The Texans may not be the best team in the league, but maybe they won’t be as bad as bookmakers thought initially. All told, the Texans to cover the double-digit spread could prove the savvy bet for the right NFL pick.

NFL Pick: Texans +12.5 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)

Texans +12.5 (-108)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.