This past week we kept pace with our season average, going 2-1 on NFL upsets, lifting our season record to 8-4 ATS, which includes seven outright underdog winners. Do we keep the string going?
Week 4 was what we had been waiting for. Overall, underdogs were 8-8 ATS but the early games on Sunday saw four games come down to the final seconds and two of those went to overtime, as New Jersey’s finest both pulled off their first victories in the extra session.
We head into this week wondering just how good is Arizona and what a 24/7 mess Urban Meyer has not only with Jacksonville but with his wife and family also? (We loved Meyer’s Ohio State “disguise” by the way.) While Meyer’s wife might be quite upset, we are looking for different kinds of upsets this week for NFL picks.
Thursday, October 07, 2021 – 08:20 PM EDT at Lumen Field
The Rams might have beaten the Super Bowl champs the week prior, however, you have to follow that up with a sustained effort when playing a division game. Coach Sean McVay’s squad did not and they were ambushed by Arizona and ignored weaknesses that winning covers up and are on notice.
Los Angeles has faced Tom Brady and Kyler Murray the last two weeks and their pass defense has been torched for 660 yards through the air. Next up is Seattle. And what’s that quarterback’s name, oh yea, Russell Wilson.
Maybe L.A. lacked the same passion as the Cardinals and they bounce back. Though the name keeps changing where the Seahawks play, what has not changed much is Seattle is 15-7 SU over the Rams at home over the years. Pete Carroll’s crew was lucky to win at San Francisco last Sunday and they still have defensive problems. Yet, hard to ignore on a short week the Hawks are 11-0 ATS as underdogs off a SU and ATS triumph against the NFL betting odds.
NFL Pick: Seahawks +2 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
Sunday, October 10, 2021 - 01:00 PM EDT at Heinz Field
At this juncture, we don’t know what Mike Tomlin is going to do with Ben Roethlisberger. What we do know in seven of the eight halves this season of football, Big Ben appears very much to be the QB who finished last season and looks about finished.
Denver’s rabid fans are like most across the country. When their Broncos defeated a string of nobody’s, they were singing their praises on social media. By halftime against Baltimore and the rest of the time on that night, it was variations of “This team sucks” by various contributors.
With Teddy Bridgewater out, Drew Luck has a chance to reclaim his job. Luck doesn’t have to be John Elway, he just can’t be Paxton Lynch either. The Denver defense is going against a terrible Pittsburgh offensive line it can dominate and Roethlisberger has the mobility of a statue.
We like that the Broncos are 8-1 ATS after scoring 14 points or less in their last game the last three seasons.
NFL Pick: Broncos +2 (-108) at Heritage Sports
Sunday, October 10, 2021 - 08:20 PM EDT at Arrowhead Stadium
Top Sportsbooks have established the Chiefs as a home favorite after they returned to .500 with a victory at Philadelphia. The home crowd will be raucous, nevertheless, when your defense is surrendering 31.5 points, you’re 31st in total defense and you’re facing a revenge-minded opponent, that could be problematic.
Though Kansas City has played a superior schedule compared to Buffalo, you know Josh Allen and company have something to prove after losing the AFC title game back in January. Though some might scoff at the Bills ranked first in fewest points and total defense, this is still the NFL, and everyone’s long forgotten the 1972 Miami Dolphins, the NFL’s lone unbeaten team, played one the easiest regular-season slates ever.
Buffalo has more than enough ways to move the ball on that pliable Chiefs defense. Additionally, it is hard to look past K.C. has committed seven turnovers in their last three starts and the Bills have forced 11 in the same span. Staying with that same theme, road underdogs like Buffalo, after a game where they committed one or fewer turnovers, against an opponent after two consecutive contests with a turnover margin of -1 or worse, are a sensational 31-4 ATS.
NFL Pick: Bills +2.5 (-108) at Heritage Sports
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.