Syracuse vs. North Carolina Free NCAA Basketball Picks for February 28 (Archive)
Syracuse has lost two straight games by double digits. Most recently, the Orange got embarrassed by Duke, losing by a score of 97-72. Conversely, North Carolina has won three straight games since being upset at home by Pitt. For their last home game of the season, the Tar Heels will look to win a fourth straight.
The top-rated sportsbooks have released their NCAAB odds for tonight’s game between Syracuse and North Carolina. For reasons that I will explain, you should play the spread for this game.
Syracuse Orange vs. North Carolina Tar Heels
Monday, February 28, 2022 – 07:00 PM EST at Dean E. Smith Center
Missing Jesse Edwards on Offense
On February 8, during his team's game against Boston College, Jesse Edwards suffered a season-ending wrist fracture. While stronger three-point shooting still allowed Syracuse to prevail in that one contest against an ACC bottom-feeder with one of the nation's worst perimeter defenses.
The oddsmakers are having trouble accounting for just how bad the Orange are without Edwards. Since that game, Syracuse is 1-4 ATS. With his inside scoring, Jesse Edwards helped fill the void in scoring created by the departures of Quincy Guerrier and Marek Dolezaj.
Edwards was easily the Orange's most efficient inside scorer. Whereas no regular Orange contributor is converting over 50 percent of his two-point shot attempts, Edwards was converting 69.1 percent of them.
Join Now: $1,600 1st Half NASCAR Extravaganza Contest
This ability to score inside forced the defense to devote more attention inside the arc, which freed up other Orange players to do what the offense does best, which is shoot threes.
Given Edwards' importance, Syracuse hasn't scored more than 76 points in an ACC game despite facing bottom-feeders like Georgia Tech and Boston College who regularly struggle to defend against ACC competition. Conversely, Syracuse had scored over 85 points in five ACC games before Edwards went down.
Missing Edwards' Defense
But Edwards' significance isn't confined to his offensive abilities. He was also a strong shot-blocker as he led the ACC in block percentage.
The Syracuse zone needs to be anchored by a strong and long shot-blocker patrolling the area in front of the basket. This center needs to be strong to protect the rim but also agile to help disturb shot attempts taken around the free-throw line, which is a notorious vulnerability of Syracuse's brand of defense.
Video Picks: Watch BMR's Free Expert Sports Betting Picks of the Day
Edwards had both the athleticism and the defensive technique to be this kind of defender. Without him, the Orange are both raw and thin at the position. Syracuse has to give Frank Anselem a lot more minutes. Likewise, fellow center Bourama Sidibe has gone from playing maybe one or two minutes to playing around 20.
Their strong decline in block rate relative to Edwards' underscores their lack of defensive quality. Without Edwards, North Carolina has a tremendous advantage at the center position.
While one may fairly describe the Tar Heels as a jump-shooting team -- head coach Hubert Davis has done so -- Armando Bacot's role on the team cannot be understated. Bacot has attempted 106 more shots than any Tar Heel teammate inside the arc.
He went through a bit of a slump in January as he dealt with an injury and stronger attention from defenses, but he couldn't be readier for tonight's game. He's coming off a 28-point effort at NC State.
Three-Point Shooting
Last year, North Carolina beat Syracuse at home by six points. In order for the Tar Heels to cover the spread tonight, they'll have to win by a couple more points. Last season, the Tar Heels were awful from behind the arc. They rarely shot threes and were inefficient when they did attempt them. In the six-point win versus Syracuse, they were 5-of-24 from deep.
This year, they will shoot a lot better from deep. Their three-point conversion rate is 5.5 percent higher than it was last year and they are more comfortable attempting threes. Partly, this improvement comes from Brady Manek's arrival. The former Sooner is a power forward who aptly stretches the floor.
Defenses easily lose track of Manek as he drifts behind the arc where he converts 40.3 percent of his three-point attempts in ACC play. Manek's teammates, though, are also shooting a lot better from deep.
Read More: March Madness Bracket Projections: 2022 NCAA Tournament Field of 68 Predictions
Against Syracuse's zone, opponents regularly amass favorable three-point opportunities. So, led by the lengthy and agile Bacot, North Carolina still has the great advantage in offensive rebounding that it did in last year's game -- defensive rebounding is always a weakness for Jim Boeheim's Syracuse zone -- but now it also has the necessary three-point shooting.
Plus, Caleb Love and RJ Davis have improved as ball-handlers. Both are describable as combo guards, they have stronger assist-to-turnover ratios. Davis is better playing off the ball. His threes are typically assisted. So, he just needs to find an open spot against Syracuse's porous zone, and then he won't feel compelled to do too much.
Love has the better handles and has an easier time accomplishing a greater variety of passes. He has nice chemistry with Manek and he'll also set his other teammates up for good scoring opportunities. In addition to ranking second-to-last nationally in limiting opposing three-point attempts, the Orange rank dead-last at limiting the opponent's assist-to-field goals made ratio.
Rest assured for your best bets for this matchup that this strongly regressed, the awful Orange defense will allow North Carolina to amass a giant scoring total tonight. Furthermore, North Carolina is also one of the best defensive rebounding teams in the nation.
An Orange team that is woefully undersized inside will fail to get the second-chance points that it desperately needs since Syracuse's three-point conversion rate is about seven percent lower on the road. For the above reasons, invest in the Tar Heels with your NCAAB picks.
NCAAB Pick: Tar Heels -7 (-110) with BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.