Swinger’s Super Bowl LVI Early Picks (Archive)
We now know the Super Bowl LVI entries after the Bengals punched their ticket into the big game with a stunning upset of the Chiefs.
Meanwhile, the Rams defeated the 49ers to set the matchup for the NFL’s biggest game on its grandest stage.
Let’s see what Swinger’s initial impressions are after he correctly called an outright win of Cincinnati last week in his NFL picks.
Conference Championship Round Recap
So how did we do last week? Well, we hit our 4-unit play on the Bengals, but what I didn’t do was allow myself to include a 2-unit moneyline pick of +275 on the Cats because I never have included moneyline selections in Swinger’s Picks.
Well, for the luvva gawd, break the rules! In fact, what rules? BMR certainly hasn’t wagged their finger and said, “Only point-spread plays, Swinger. You know the rules.”
The fact is there are no rules here at Swinger’s Picks and if you happen to review last week’s picks you will see I also advised a moneyline play on the Rams because I hated that hook so much (Rams -3 ½.)
Let me quote verbatim from my writeup last week on the 49ers/Rams, “I think we have two very good defenses here but only one elite offense. The hook on the three concerns me and this might be one of the rare cases for betting the favorite on the moneyline at -185 instead of buying it to -3 and having it cost -135 for the privilege.
VIDEO PICKS: Watch BMR’s Free Expert Sports Betting Picks of the Day
“But for the purposes of this construct, and how we have been adhering strictly to the line offered since the inception of Swinger’s Picks, we can’t deviate so we have to take the lines that are out there without tinkering. Nevertheless, the 3.5 will diminish my unit size on this wager but it doesn’t mean you can’t bet the Rams on the moneyline if the spirit moves you.”
For the purposes of this construct?! What the hell did I think I was doing, splitting particles to prove my thesis on string theory? Good lord, almighty! Okay, so I foolishly laid the 3 ½ on the Rams for 2 units because, you know, it’s the 11th commandment – thou shalt not deviate from point spread betting in Swinger’s Picks.
Season Recap
When the smoke cleared, instead of winning 11.50 units (Bengals +7 for 4 units, Bengals +275 for 2 units, and Rams -185 for 2 units) we won a grand total of 1.84 units (Bengals 4 units and Rams -2.16 units).
Am I happy? Well, at least I saw a phenomenal game that wound up exactly the way I had hoped when the Cats clawed their way past the Chiefs to advance to the Super Bowl.
- Swinger’s 2021-22 NFL Record: 30-25 ATS (+7.95 units using a 1-to-5-unit system)
Los Angeles Rams vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Sunday, February 13, 2022 – 06:30 PM EST at SoFi Stadium
Betting Preview
Alright, so here we are after the long, glorious grind that is the NFL season. It’s always a bittersweet moment because we know we have one big, nationwide party awaiting but then it’s a long way to the NFL Draft and then an eternity until the preseason.
We are up nearly eight units on the season entering the biggest game of the year but that’s not nearly as good as we did last year. However, a $100 bettor has roughly $800 of the bookie’s money in their pocket which beats chewing glass.
This is a tough game to predict because the Bengals have made more comebacks than the Rolling Stones, and if there is a limit to such good fortune and sheer determination then you would think they are past their expiration date.
The Bengals looked outclassed in the first half against the Chiefs but a late touchdown and momentum-shifting stop of Tyreek Hill at the goal line proved to be pivotal in the Cats regaining their swagger in the second half.
Betting Analysis
But will they have that luxury against a much stouter Rams defense? We know LA doesn’t boast the same high-octane offense as the Chiefs so that will work in the Bengals' favor but they’re pretty close.
The NFL odds are revealing the Rams as 4-point favorites which is a point higher than I believed the openers would be showing. However, this is a home game for the Rams as they will be playing the Super Bowl at SoFi Stadium. How con-veeeen-yent (Church Lady of SNL circa 1990 ringing in my ear with that sentence).
I have championed the Bengals throughout the season as the electric pass/catch combo of Burrow and Chase is not to be underestimated. However, Cincinnati has a huge mismatch with their weak offensive line pitted against Aaron Donald, Von Miller, and the rest of AL’s chaos-makers.
Early Super Bowl LVI Picks
This is a game where fans will side with one team or the other but unlike many Super Bowls, neither will be the villain – ala the New England Patriots or Kansas City Chiefs.
Below you will see two plays on this game as I believe it will be a low-scoring affair and my units are limited on the Rams because the line is not particularly appealing.
NFL Pick: Rams -4 (-108) for 2 units at Heritage Sports (Read our Heritage Sports Review)
NFL Pick: Under 49 (-110) for 2 units at Bovada (Read our Bovada Review)
The Woodman’s Corner
Woodman’s 2021-22 NFL Record (13-8, +4.33 units)
The Woodman was on the same money train as your old buddy Swinger and got the job done with the Bengals +7 over the dumbstruck Chiefs.
This week the man is rolling the dice with the Cats one more time and is hoping to wrap this 2021 NFL season in winning fashion. I disagree but win, lose, or draw, both the Woodman and I are guaranteed winning season 2021 NFL seasons. I hope you enjoyed it!
Woodman's Pick: Bengals +4 (-110) at Bovada
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.