Swinger’s NFL Conference Championship Games Picks (Archive)
Swinger did the splits last week, missing with the Bucs but connecting with the underdog Bengals who not only covered as 4-point underdogs but defeated the top AFC seed, the Tennessee Titans, outright. Let’s see what SJ has for us in his NFL picks on Sunday!
Divisional Round Recap
There are two teams that I liked throughout this season and it wasn’t because they were necessarily the best teams, but because I felt the best had yet to come for both. I was right on one and wrong on the other but both had the potential to put up eye-popping numbers as there were plenty of offensive weapons to go around. One proved to be worthy of my affection while the other, well, not so much.
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I’m sure you’ve figured out by now the Bengals were one of those two teams but you will scratch your head and make a face when I tell you the other was the Minnesota Vikings. Cousins, Cook, Thielen, and the sublime Justin Jefferson are all capable of taking over a game but the Vikings defense…not so much.
Therefore, last week I was ecstatic to get the Bengals plus points against what I believe was an overrated Titans team. Why my unit count wasn’t more than three units, I’m still not sure.
However, we swung and missed with the Bucs, and even though Tom Terrific summoned his dark magic and nearly mounted one of his patented miraculous rallies, a cover in that game would have been bogus. Sure, I would have taken the dough, but let’s face it, the right side won and covered that game.
Congratulations to the Rams and those prescient enough to bet them as live road pups. Okay, so we won 3 units on the Cats and lost 3.24 on the Bucs for -0.24 units for the week. Let’s try for a sweep this week and add to our modest bankroll of +6.11 units for the season.
Swinger’s 2021-22 NFL Record: 29-24 ATS (+6.11 units using a 1-to-5-unit system)
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Sunday, January 30, 2022 – 03:00 PM EST at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
Big surprise – I love the Bengals! And why not when you really think about it. Of course, Mahomes has the capacity to put any team to sleep but there’s another young gun in this game who has been putting up staggering numbers in his own right. And that guy is Joe Burrow.
Man, on, man, his chemistry with LSU teammate, Ja'Marr Chase, rivals any pass/catch combo in the league, including Patrick Mahomes to Tyreek Hill. Sure, the Cats don’t have a Travis Kelce but then again, who does?
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What the Bengals do have is Joe Mixon and he’s better than any running back on the other side of the ball on Sunday. We should also note that Cincinnati defeated Kansas City just about a month ago and Burrow tossed for 446 yards and four touchdowns while Chase had 11 catches for 266 yards and three touchdowns.
No, that wasn’t a misprint, Chase broke a Bengals franchise record and I believe set a rookie record that day for most receiving yards in a single season. Let’s also consider that this is shaping up as a trap game for the Chiefs.
They just had a knockdown, drag-out, overtime shootout against the Bills and could very well be looking ahead to another Super Bowl appearance while overlooking the team they are playing on Sunday. And if their starting strong safety, Tyrann Mathieu, is still in concussion protocol after getting injured last week then you can bet the rent that Burrow will be exploiting his absence.
Shortly before writing this, the NFL odds at the venerated bookmaker, BetOnline, was one of the very few dealing a 7 ½ and we all know that, except for 3, the number 7 is the most important in football betting. Unfortunately, that number escaped us but even at Bengals +7, this is still a bargain. Oh, and if you’re wondering, the moneyline on the Bengals is +275 at BOL. *wink* wink
NFL Pick: Bengals +7 (-101) for 4 units with BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
San Francisco 49ers vs. Los Angeles Rams
Sunday, January 30, 2022 – 06:30 PM EST at SoFi Stadium
I’m not gonna lie, kids - the 49ers scare me. Their defense is coming alive at the right time and they are tearing it up. But the thing about it is, they just don’t scare me enough because their offense is so very pedestrian. And games in this league are largely won and lost by how good or bad is a team’s passing offense.
No longer do defenses win championships but that doesn’t mean we discount their importance in winning one. It’s just no longer more important than a high-octane passing attack. And that is what the Rams have in Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp, Van Jefferson, the Lazarus-like reawakening from Odell Beckham Jr., and the presence of Tyler Higbee.
I think we have two very good defenses here but only one elite offense. The hook on the three concerns me and this might be one of the rare cases for betting the favorite on the moneyline at -185 instead of buying it to -3 and having it cost -135 for the privilege.
But for the purposes of this construct, and how we have been adhering strictly to the line offered since the inception of Swinger’s Picks, we can’t deviate so we have to take the lines that are out there without tinkering. Nevertheless, the 3.5 will diminish my unit size on this wager but it doesn’t mean you can’t bet the Rams on the moneyline if the spirit moves you.
NFL Pick: Rams -3.5 (-108) for 2 units with Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
The Woodman’s Corner
Woodman’s 2021-22 NFL Record (12-8, +3.33 units)
The Woodman got back on track with the 49ers last week and those underdogs continue to come wagging their collective tails at his door, week in and week out. And while they haven’t all been furry and cuddly, we should note that Woodman’s penchant for pups has produced steadily consistent winning seasons.
On those rare occasions when he does take a flier on a favorite, the results haven’t been nearly as good. But he won’t be bucking his trend this week and will reach for the biggest dog on the board when he backs the Cincinnati Bengals this week. It’s not often that our top plays align but this week they do, as I too love the Cats in this spot and wouldn’t be surprised if they click on the moneyline as well.
Woodman's Pick: Bengals +7 (-101) with BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.