NFL Pick: Six-Legged Parlay (+1600) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
The Kansas City Chiefs can become the first NFL team to repeat as champions in nearly 20 years in Super Bowl LVIII against the San Francisco 49ers. The last 3 teams who were a win away from repeating have all lost:
- 2014 Seahawks
- 2017 Patriots
- 2020 Chiefs
But these Chiefs are different. They have a great defense, and they still have Patrick Mahomes throwing the ball to Travis Kelce in an Andy Reid offense. Despite this, they are 2-point underdogs, according to the latest NFL odds, in a game with a total of 47.5 points.
We are using Bovada, one of our top-rated sportsbooks, to build a 6-leg Super Bowl LVIII parlay with +1600 odds that sees a script of the Chiefs pulling off the upset win and repeating as Super Bowl champs.
Parlay Summary
- Travis Kelce – Anytime Touchdown Scorer
- Christian McCaffrey – Anytime Touchdown Scorer
- Christian McCaffrey – At Least 26+ Receiving Yards
- Marquez Valdes-Scantling – At Least 21 Receiving Yards
- Brock Purdy – At Least 1 Pass Intercepted
- Kansas City Chiefs ML
We justify each leg of the parlay below.
San Francisco 49ers vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Sunday, February 11, 2024 – 06:30 PM ET at Allegiant Stadium
Travis Kelce
- Anytime Touchdown Scorer
Imagine your ultra-famous girlfriend makes the effort to fly from Japan to see you in the big game and you don’t find the end zone with over 115 million people watching, especially if she’s watching with your mom. That can’t happen to Travis Kelce, who has to step up and deliver for the Chiefs here.
Kelce has been money in the postseason with 3 touchdowns against the Bills and Ravens, who were also strong defenses against tight ends. Getting some rest in Week 18 helped rejuvenate him for the playoff run, and he got a bye week here too to heal that 34-year-old body.
Mr. Reliable
Kelce is still Patrick Mahomes’ most reliable target, especially in the red zone. He caught a touchdown against the 49ers in Super Bowl LIV. He caught the first touchdown for the Chiefs last year on the opening drive for the team in Super Bowl LVII.
The Chiefs will scheme up something for Kelce to score in this one too. With Mahomes having great odds to throw multiple touchdowns in this game, it would be a shock if none of them went to Kelce with Taylor Swift and the nation expecting nothing short of greatness.
Christian McCaffrey
- Anytime Touchdown Scorer
Just as Kelce is the Chiefs’ inevitable answer to who will step up, Christian McCaffrey is that player for the 49ers. He led the NFL with 21 touchdowns this year, and that was just a continuation of last season when he scored 13 touchdowns in 14 games with the 49ers (playoffs included).
McCaffrey has scored in 15-of-18 games this season. He even has 7 games with 2 touchdowns, including both playoff games.
McCaffrey has a real shot at becoming the first running back to win Super Bowl MVP since Terrell Davis did it for the 1997 Broncos. It would likely take over 130 scrimmage yards and multiple touchdowns. However, we’ll take the easy pick of him getting at least one score, which should happen well before halftime unless this is going to be a 13-3 style dud in the vein of Super Bowl LIII between the Patriots and Rams.
But Mahomes vs. 49ers usually means points with their games ending 38-27, 31-20, and 44-23 since 2018.
Christian McCaffrey
- At Least 26+ Receiving Yards
Right back to CMC, we may be going a bit light on his player props, but you could always juice them up to 5+ receptions and score multiple touchdowns if you want. But we are looking for close to sure things to build up this parlay, and no one on the 49ers is as safe a bet as McCaffrey.
McCaffrey has had at least 26 receiving yards in 12-of-18 games this year, so it hits two-thirds of the time for him. The passes to running backs have been productive against the Chiefs this postseason, and McCaffrey is a far better receiving back than anyone on the Bills or Ravens.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling
- At Least 21 Receiving Yards
Let’s take things up a notch. Marquez Valdes-Scantling (MVS) has been a disappointment this season, but he has started to show his value again in the playoffs.
MVS had catches of 32 and 30 yards against Buffalo in the divisional round, then he put the Ravens away with his biggest play of the year when he came down with a 32-yard catch on 3rd-and-long to ice the AFC Championship Game.
Maybe MVS just saves his best for the playoffs. He did the same thing last year when he had 2 touchdowns and also a 100-yard game against the Bengals in the AFC title game.
Old Foe
The best regular-season game that MVS has had with the Chiefs just so happens to be his trip to San Francisco last year when he torched the defense deep for 3 catches and 111 yards. The secondary is the weakness in the San Francisco defense too, and the Chiefs have loved getting their wide receivers involved when they face this defense.
The Chiefs don’t have Tyreek Hill anymore to catch those deep passes, which happened to be the play of the game on 3rd-and-15 when these teams met in Super Bowl LIV. That element is gone. If someone is going to step up and make a big catch, it just might be MVS this week.
We’ll take him for at least 21 yards, something he can do in one snap. Let’s just hope his hands work (again) this time.
Brock Purdy
- At Least 1 Pass Intercepted
Brock Purdy is having an unprecedented start to his career for the last pick in the draft. He will be the 3rd-youngest quarterback to start a Super Bowl, following in the footsteps of his idol Dan Marino and another instant success in Ben Roethlisberger.
But the problem with young quarterbacks in the Super Bowl is that they usually make mistakes. In fact, the 5 youngest quarterbacks to start a Super Bowl all threw at least 1 interception:
- Dan Marino: 2 interceptions in a 38-16 loss vs. 1984 49ers
- Ben Roethlisberger: 2 interceptions in a 21-10 win vs. 2005 Seahawks
- David Woodley: 1 interception in 27-17 loss vs. 1982 Redskins
- Jared Goff: 1 interception in 13-3 loss vs. 2018 Patriots
- Patrick Mahomes: 2 interceptions in 31-20 win vs. 2019 49ers
Even in winning efforts, Roethlisberger and Mahomes both threw multiple picks. Purdy has only been picked in 7-of-18 games this year, but he flirts with danger all the time. This is also a great defense he is facing with the No. 2 pressure rate, the 2nd-most sacks, and strong corner play.
It would be surprising if Steve Spagnuolo didn’t bring blitzes against this mediocre offensive line and force Purdy into some bad decisions and throws. He was picked in the NFC Championship Game against Detroit thanks to timely pressure on 3rd-and-long.
Purdy has been intercepted at least once in all 4 of his losses this season. If the Chiefs are going to win this game, they need to make sure they are taking advantage of those risky throws that Purdy can’t seem to help himself from trying each week.
Kansas City Chiefs
- Moneyline
You could leave this leg out and still get +1000 odds for the props, but most of our picks are in support of a Kansas City victory anyway. If you’re interested in leaving out a different leg, remember that you can use our parlay calculator to figure out the potential profit.
Anyways, if Kelce is scoring a touchdown, MVS makes a play, and the defense picks off Purdy, you have to like the Chiefs’ chances to repeat. Here are some more reasons to like the Chiefs to win:
- Kansas City has not allowed more than 27 points in any game this season and have held 19-of-20 opponents under 25 points.
- The 49ers are 1-5 when scoring under 25 points this year, and 0-5 when scoring under 24 points.
- No team has allowed fewer points after halftime than the Chiefs this year.
- Mahomes is 9-3 SU as an underdog in his career and all underdogs are 7-4 SU in the Super Bowl since 2011.
- Since 2022, Mahomes is 24-0 when his completion percentage is at least 64%, and Bovada has set his line at 65.5%.
- Purdy’s bad throw rate in the postseason is 26.9%, more than 10 percentage points higher than his regular season rate – only Bryce Young (21.5%) was above 20.0% in the regular season.
- The Chiefs have held all 20 opponents under 260 net passing yards this year, which has only been done by the 2006 Colts, who won Super Bowl XLI.
If the Chiefs do what we outlined and protect the football, they should have a very successful night and so will this parlay for our NFL picks.
Parlay Summary
- Travis Kelce – Anytime Touchdown Scorer
- Christian McCaffrey – Anytime Touchdown Scorer
- Christian McCaffrey – At Least 26+ Receiving Yards
- Marquez Valdes-Scantling – At Least 21 Receiving Yards
- Brock Purdy – At Least 1 Pass Intercepted
- Kansas City Chiefs ML
NFL Pick: Six-Legged Parlay (+1600) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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