Super Bowl LVIII is finally here between the San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs. Unfortunately, that also means this is the last chance this NFL season to play daily fantasy sports (DFS) contests, whether it is at one of our top-rated sportsbooks or a DFS platform
With DFS, we know there are different lineup formats depending on which company you are playing at and whether there are cash games and tournaments. That’s why we are going to provide our thoughts on the skill positions. Our lineups at the end will consist of 5 flex options and an MVP pick, the player who earns 1.5x points.
San Francisco 49ers vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Sunday, February 11, 2024 – 06:30 PM ET at Allegiant Stadium
Quarterback: Patrick Mahomes or Brock Purdy (Or Both)?
Simply put, Patrick Mahomes should be your solid floor option and the better choice for cash games.
Brock Purdy is the riskier play. However, he might have a higher ceiling. He would be a contrarian pick for roster MVP as many people expect him to struggle on the big stage against Kansas City’s pass defense.
This is an interesting choice as Mahomes is 3-0 against the 49ers in his career and has at least 286 passing yards and 3 total touchdowns in each game. He usually goes for over 300 yards against the 49ers, including his 423-yard performance in 2022.
However, we also know Mahomes hasn’t been lighting it up like that this year, and he has only thrown more than 2 touchdown passes in 2 games this year. He also doesn’t have a single rushing touchdown in 2023.
Defensive Challenges
We said Purdy can be the higher ceiling because he has 5 games with at least 3 touchdown passes, including 3 games with 4 touchdown passes. Most notably, he shredded the Cowboys and Eagles, the main NFC competition the 49ers had in the regular season, for 4 touchdowns in both games.
As crazy as it sounds, Purdy has more 300-yard passing games than Mahomes this year too, edging him out 5-4.
Just keep in mind Kirk Cousins had the most passing yards (284) against the Chiefs this year as no one got to 285 yards against them yet. Josh Allen is the only quarterback to have a game with 24 fantasy points against the Chiefs this year, and Purdy isn’t the runner that Allen is.
On the other side, Joe Burrow and Carson Wentz (against backups in Week 18) both went over 27 fantasy points against the 49ers. Kirk Cousins, Lamar Jackson, Joshua Dobbs and Jalen Hurts were all close in the 22-to-25 points range for fantasy.
Running Backs: Both Look Great
Both defenses are better against the pass than they are against the run. This could be a good night for Christian McCaffrey and Isiah Pacheco.
If you had to MVP somebody, it should be McCaffrey, the Offensive Player of the Year.
He has the best odds of scoring multiple touchdowns. Getting PPR scoring could be a blessing, as the Chiefs are showing vulnerability against running back catches. McCaffrey is going to have a great matchup on the ground against a defense that’s better suited to rush the passer.
Pacheco would get plays from me too as he has been consistent with a touchdown in 7 straight games. However, if left guard Joe Thuney is still out, that could hurt his full potential on the ground.
A lot of people are going to be on McCaffrey.
However, he should be a go in all formats, as the potential for a masterclass game is too high. But for a tournament play, leaving out CMC in favor of Pacheco (and Purdy) could be a bold move that pays off if this turns into a Kansas City win with the 49ers trying to throw to catch up instead of running McCaffrey more.
Tight Ends: Edge to Kelce
Rare to get the best tight ends in football in a Super Bowl, but Travis Kelce and George Kittle are at it again.
They both had 6 catches for 98 yards when the teams met in 2022. Kelce was shut out of the end zone that day while Kittle scored.
However, Kittle rarely scores away from home. Also, you know the Chiefs are going to feature Kelce with Taylor Swift in the house for the Super Bowl. He has looked fantastic in the playoffs after getting some rest in Week 18. The bye week should also help his body get ready for a huge night.
Kittle might also have to stay in and block more or chip pass rushers. That pass protection is a weakness on the 49ers while the Chiefs are the No. 2 pass rush. You have to favor Kelce in this matchup, but both could have nice games.
Wide Receivers: Might Decide These Contests
Getting the right wide receivers could prove crucial in winning DFS contests in this game. We rank the only 5 players you should even consider using here:
- Rashee Rice, Chiefs
- Deebo Samuel, 49ers
- Brandon Aiyuk, 49ers
- Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Chiefs
- Jajuan Jennings, 49ers
Rashee Rice only averages 2.0 fewer fantasy points per game than Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk. He gets the easier defensive matchup in the secondary and is also cheaper for your roster.
Rice is apparently dealing with an ankle injury you’ll have to consider. However, the rookie could be a stud in this one as Mahomes has usually looked to his wideouts against the 49ers. Rice is clearly the No. 1 option there for the Chiefs. The weakness is at corner in the San Francisco defense.
Let’s go with Deebo Samuel over Brandon Aiyuk as he looked like the better option against the Lions. Samuel is easier for Purdy to throw to than Aiyuk will be in those tough matchups with corners L’Jarius Sneed and Trent McDuffie. Samuel can take the short passes a long way with his YAC ability, and he can also be used as a runner.
Fading
Fading Aiyuk might even be a good call, especially for cash games.
Half of his yards this postseason came on a fluke 51-yard catch against Detroit that should have been intercepted by the defense before the ball deflected to Aiyuk. Many top receivers, including Tyreek Hill and Stefon Diggs (twice each), have failed to produce against this secondary this year.
As for the backups, never discount one of those guys from becoming a Super Bowl hero a la David Tyree or Mario Manningham. If someone on the Chiefs is going to step up and make a big catch, it might be Marquez Valdes-Scantling, who had 111 yards against these 49ers a year ago.
I would generally fade Jajuan Jennings, who had his biggest receiving yardage games this year when Deebo was hurt against the Vikings and Packers.
Rice and Deebo for cash games, Marquez Valdes-Scantling for a sneaky tournament flex, and Aiyuk is the contrarian pick who could surprise people with a big game.
DST: Chiefs or 49ers?
These teams rank No. 2 and No. 3 in points allowed this year, but the edge should go to the Chiefs, who you can find for a cheaper price than the 49ers in this game.
This unit deserves respect after not allowing any team to score more than 27 points this year, and they rank No. 2 in sacks and pressure rate.
Mahomes does such a good job of avoiding negative plays with no interceptions in his last 6 playoff games (NFL record) and he is hard to sack too. The 49ers are just not as good as they were on defense 4 years ago when they roughed up Mahomes for 3.5 quarters before he solved them.
There is also real potential for Purdy to melt on the big stage like he did on Christmas night against the Ravens.
Young quarterbacks usually make mistakes in the Super Bowl. So, the Kansas City defense could be a sneaky good pick for your lineups. Last year the Chiefs scored a defensive touchdown on an unforced fumble by Jalen Hurts. Maybe Purdy will give up a pick-6 or something this year.
Kicker: Chiefs Have Another Edge
Not a fan of using kickers in DFS. However, San Francisco kicker Jake Moody scored 11 points in the NFC Championship Game. Meanwhile, George Kittle had just 3.7 or 4.7 points depending on which site you played. That’s a big difference and proof that sometimes you are better off with the kicker.
However, if you want a kicker in this game, you go with Harrison Butker. He has better range than Moody and is also more reliable, especially in the clutch.
I probably wouldn’t try to spend that precious roster money on a kicker in this game. Nonetheless, if you need a final spot that’s cheaper, Butker could be the choice.
DFS Team 1: Cash Game Lineup
- MVP: Deebo Samuel, 49ers WR
- Flex 1: Christian McCaffrey, 49ers RB
- Flex 2: Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs QB
- Flex 3: Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Chiefs WR
- Flex 4: George Kittle, 49ers TE
- Flex 5: Chiefs DST
Our first DFS lineup is for cash games (50/50s and double ups) where you’re just trying to finish in the upper half of the field.
However, this became harder than it sounds given the high price you’ll have to pay to get one of the top studs as your MVP. It was hard passing up McCaffrey for that honor, but he really does limit the rest of your roster construction, and it’s not like we want to start using Justin Watson or Kadarius Toney in these lineups, especially for a cash game.
So, the choice ended up being Deebo Samuel for MVP as he’ll hopefully have a big game and find the end zone while also being a rushing threat. We still had to get McCaffrey and Mahomes in there, but there was no room for Kelce, so Kittle is not a bad backup option at the tight end position.
But with money running out, we had to settle on the Chiefs’ DST to hopefully put that pass rush to use and force Purdy into mistakes like sacks and turnovers while keeping the score down like they have all year.
Then our last pick was MVS since we couldn’t fit one of the kickers. Hopefully, he’ll continue catching the ball down the field like he has been this postseason.
DFS Team 2: Tournament Lineup
- MVP: Travis Kelce, Chiefs TE
- Flex 1: Christian McCaffrey, 49ers RB
- Flex 2: George Kittle, 49ers TE
- Flex 3: Chiefs DST
- Flex 4: 49ers DST
- Flex 5: Isiah Pacheco, Chiefs RB
We are thinking outside the box with this tournament lineup. It features both tight ends, both running backs and both defenses.
The theme here is a defensive slugfest. Not much unlike Kansas City’s 17-10 win in Baltimore in the AFC Championship Game.
In that game, Kelce was the stud with 32 fantasy points, more than doubling up Mahomes (15). Pacheco also outscored Mahomes with 18 points that game. It wasn’t even a strong rushing performance with the Chiefs. They were handing off into stacked boxes often as they looked to protect the lead for the 2nd half.
Touchdown Tactics
We are counting on Kelce to show up huge and steal the thunder from his quarterback again.
Maybe he catches Mahomes’ only touchdown pass again or both of them in a game we are obviously predicting a limited number of touchdowns in with both defenses racking up sacks and takeaways.
We’re also banking on Kelce’s huge game to spur Kittle to do his best for the 49ers in a battle of the tight ends. We also had to include McCaffrey, as he is just a machine and can rack up points per reception. He should still find the end zone even in a low-scoring game.
It’s a tough matchup for DFS. You are going to have to cut corners somewhere. However, we like the bold approach of fading both quarterbacks here. Just remember, the Chiefs have played Super Bowls that ended 31-9 (they scored no touchdowns) and 38-35 in the last 3 seasons.
Anything is possible.
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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