Super Bowl LVI Picks: Best Prop Bets for Rams vs. Bengals (Archive)
Super Bowl XVI is here! We always have fun betting the side and the total. Yet during the Super Bowl, the props market is one of the most exciting, diverse, and fun ways to bet on the NFL. I have taken a look at the vast list of NFL odds and found the best prop bets for Super Bowl XVI.
Joe Mixon Receiving Yards Over 27
Much has been made in the past two weeks of the deficiencies of the Cincinnati Bengals offensive line. The best way to mitigate a pass rush is by running the ball, and of course, dump-offs and screens.
When a quarterback progresses through his reads quickly, they often will just dump off to the running back if no one is open in order to avoid the sack. This is where Mixon will be important to the Cincinnati passing attack.
Mixon is an explosive offensive weapon and Cincinnati head coach Zac Taylor will be looking for ways to get him involved in the offense besides just simply lining up and running the ball. Whether it be designed plays or dump-offs when the Rams coverage holds tight, Mixon will be involved in the passing game.
Joe Mixon has accumulated 27 yds or more in each playoff outing this year. Joe Mixon had a combined 110 receiving yards in the last two regular-season games that he played. As the games have gotten tighter and the opposing team’s pass rush has been more intense and ferocious, Cincinnati has relied more on Mixon’s ability to catch the ball out of the backfield. Our first Super Bowl prop is Joe Mixon receiving yards over 27.
Odell Beckham Jr. Over 66 Receiving Yards
Just like I expect Joe Mixon to be the safety valve for the Cincinnati Bengals offense, Odell Beckham Jr. has taken over as the safety valve for the Los Angeles Rams. Wide receiver Cooper Kupp was named the offensive player of the year and the Cincinnati defense will especially be keyed on him.
Kupp is often subject to double or even triple coverage, but this does open up more opportunities for Odell Beckham Jr., Odell has been the number one receiver everywhere he has played during his whole career, so this opportunity for him to work against the team’s second-best cornerback has been a bonanza for Beckham Jr., Odell has gone over 66 yards in two of the Rams’ three playoff games.
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I expect Beckham Jr. to see plenty of targets as the second option for Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford. Our second Super Bowl prop is Odell Beckham Jr., Over 66 Receiving Yards.
Team To Use Coach’s Challenge First
I like the Los Angeles Rams at plus money to use the Coach’s Challenge first. Rams coach Sean McVay has shown during the playoffs that he was very cavalier about his use of timeouts. He is not afraid to challenge a call to gain the slightest edge early in the game. I believe he will be more aggressive than Zac Taylor when it comes to the use of the Coach’s Challenge.
Suffice it to say, there’s not a lot of predictive statistical data to back this play. One of the reasons I like this bet is that oftentimes coaches and play-callers get more conservative in the Super Bowl. I arrived at this play not through some statistical formula, but by simply watching the playoff games.
I was very surprised to see McVay as the underdog in this prop. I can’t believe that Sean McVay is not expected to use the coach’s challenge first! McVay should be the favorite by NFL odds. My best prop bet is Rams to use the coach’s challenge first.
Total QB Sacks Over 5
Joe Burrow obviously is playing behind one of the weakest offensive lines in the NFL, and Matt Matthew Stafford is not a running quarterback. Stafford has the ability to move in the pocket but he is not a scrambler.
This leads to the opportunity for plenty of sacks. Much has been made of Joe Burrow taking 9 sacks against the Tennessee Titans and still winning the game. Cincinnati and the Rams combined for a combined 5.3 sacks per game this season. Cincinnati recorded 4 sacks in their Conference Championship win.
The Rams had 4 sacks in their closest win of the playoffs over Tampa Bay. Both teams know the key to their defense is to pressure the opposing QB. Both teams should be blitzing often. The combined total for both teams is over 5 sacks. Our final Super Bowl prop bet is total sacks Over 5.
NFL Pick: Joe Mixon Receiving yards over 27 (-114) with BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
NFL Pick: Odell Beckham Jr. over 66 Receiving yards (-114) with BetOnline
NFL Pick: Team to use coach’s challenge first: Sean McVay (+108) with BookMaker (visit our BookMaker Review)
NFL Pick: Total sacks over 5 (-154) with BookMaker
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.