Suns vs. Spurs NBA Picks and Predictions (Archive)
The Suns are the hottest team in the NBA and now they are faced with playing on no rest down in San Antonio. Can we trust the Suns to win and/or cover yet again? Let’s see the NBA odds.
Phoenix Suns vs. San Antonio Spurs
Suns Running It Up
Denver’s run through their last 12 games has been very impressive. While their opponents have left a lot to be desired, they are winning games with ease as evidenced by Sunday night’s drubbing of the Nuggets. Phoenix did have a small Finals hangover to start the season but that appears to be over.
However, I’m not ready to pencil them in for a win and cover tonight in San Antonio. The Spurs play very hard and will present trouble for the Suns on both ends of the court. There’s also the best advantage for the Spurs. Phoenix is playing on the second night of a back-to-back on Monday and their third game in four days.
They also start another stretch on Wednesday where they play three games in four days. The defense may not come as easy if they don’t have their legs under them. It’s, for this reason, I think the Spurs may be a good play tonight, but the better play may be betting against both teams’ defenses.
I have not bet many overs this season, but this is a spot where the over could have some value. With a total of more than 220 points, the sportsbooks know that this game will be played at a fast pace. However, if the defenses show up late to the game, we could see a ton of scoring, especially early on from both teams before defenses start to come alive later in the game.
The Sharp Pick
As we approach the 20 percent mark of the season, the Suns and Spurs have both picked up their paces this season. Phoenix used to be counted on as one of the slower-paced teams in the NBA, but this season they rank fourth in the league in pace and the Spurs are right behind them in fifth.
The first halves are even faster for both clubs. San Antonio is third in the league in first-half pace and the Suns are sitting in eighth in that department. Furthermore, at home, the Spurs hold the league’s fastest first-half pace at 106 possessions per 48 minutes through six games played.
The Spurs’ first-half home defense also sits in the lower third in the NBA, while their first-half home offense ranks tied with the Nets for seventh. Sample sizes are small, but if the Spurs can take advantage of a tired Suns team, this game should have a good amount of offense early.
If I’m the Suns and playing with the rest disadvantage, I’m just doing enough to escape with a win. Most of their starters got plenty of rest last night during the blowout, but they won’t have that luxury again versus the Spurs. For my NBA picks, I expect the Suns’ offense to roll either way against this Spurs’ defense and if the pace is anywhere close to where I expect it, the combined score at the end of 24 minutes will be closer to 120 than 110.
NBA Pick: OVER 108.5 1st Half (100) with BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
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