Suns vs. Pelicans NBA Playoffs Game 6 Preview and Odds Breakdown (Archive)
The New Orleans Pelicans are back home and looking to force an unlikely Game 7 against the Phoenix Suns in their Western Conference playoff series on Thursday.
Which way to lean? Let’s take a look at the NBA odds for this game.
Phoenix Suns vs. New Orleans Pelicans
Thursday, April 28, 2022 – 07:30 PM EDT at Smoothie King Center
Betting Preview
Anything can happen in a Game 7 in the NBA, so you know the Western Conference top-seeded Phoenix Suns will not be playing around in their Game 6 matchup at No. 8 New Orleans on Thursday night even though Suns obviously can afford to lose this one. TNT has the telecast.
I tried to find out how many No. 8 seeds in the NBA even have forced a Game 7 vs. a No. 1, and while I couldn’t track that down there have been at least four because four No. 8 seeds have advanced past No. 1 seeds in Round 1 of the playoffs. It last occurred in 2011 when Memphis knocked off San Antonio.
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With the Suns up 3-2, they are -765 on the series line at BMR’s top-rated books with the Pelicans at +565. On the exact series result prop, Phoenix in six is -141 and in seven +180. New Orleans pulling a colossal upset in seven games is +575. Phoenix is 4-1 against the spread in its past five in New Orleans.
Suns’ Bridges Has Game Of Life
This series obviously changed completely when Suns All-Star Devin Booker injured his hamstring in Game 2. Phoenix was up 1-0 and winning that game when Booker went down but would lose Game 2 and here we are. Booker’s original diagnosis was 2-3 weeks with a Grade 1 hamstring strain.
Thus, it’s very unlikely he plays Thursday, but I could see Booker trying to go in a potential Game 7 on Saturday back in Phoenix.
With the Suns taking Game 5 by a score of 112-97 at home on Tuesday, the teams have now alternated wins in the series. I’d be a little worried about Mikal Bridges if I’m a Suns fan because the Defensive Player of the Year finalist played a whopping 47 minutes in that game, so he might be gassed just 48 hours later.
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Bridges was fantastic with 31 points, five rebounds and four blocks. He became the seventh player in NBA history to have 30 points, four made three-pointers and four blocks in a playoff game, joining LeBron James, Kevin Durant, Kawhi Leonard, Kobe Bryant, Dirk Nowitzki, and Vince Carter.
Bridges isn’t really known as a big-time scorer but as a lock-down defender and in Game 5, he held the Pelicans to seven points on 3-of-17 shooting as the primary defender. Bridges defended the Pelicans’ two top scorers CJ McCollum and Brandon Ingram; Bridges didn’t really guard Ingram much in the first four games of the series.
"Can't Clone Him"
He defended CJ McCollum for 36 plays and held him to 10 points on 3-for-11 shooting and defended Ingram for 34 plays, holding him to seven points on 2-for-5 shooting and three turnovers. All-in-all, it might have been the most impressive performance by any player this postseason.
"We put him [Bridges] on everybody," Suns coach Monty Williams said. "We can't clone him, but we wish we could. And he has the energy to score offensively, too."
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Suns point guard Chris Paul appeared to injure a finger on his right hand in the second quarter of Sunday's Game 4 loss and played with several fingers taped in Game 5. It didn’t seem to affect him much as Paul had 22 points and 11 assists. The Pelicans are trying their best to force him to leave.
Phoenix is 1-5 ATS in its past six following a win.
Another Do-Or-Die For Pels
Clearly, the Pelicans will need to come up with a game plan to manage Mikal Bridges in Thursday's Game 6. Stud defensive rookie Herb Jones might get more time on him.
Job No. 2 for Coach Willie Green will be to limit turnovers: "We made some timely mistakes (in Game 5). Number one, starting with the turnovers. You know 15 turnovers for 23 points. That fuels their team, that fuels their transition opportunities. That's an area where we know we have to be better. If we do, it's a totally different game for us."
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In Game 5, the Pelicans were just 5-for-25 from deep. That won’t fly in the modern-day NBA. CJ McCollum was 1-for-8, Brandon Ingram 1-for-5. Ingram did jam his right ring and pinkie fingers in Game 5 and after he injured them, he had one turnover and was 0-for-3 from the field. Ingram says he’ll be fine for Game 6.
Teams always shoot better on their home court and I expect that for New Orleans on Thursday. At home in this series, the Pels are averaging 114.5 points on 47.6 percent shooting. In the three road games: 107.0 points on 44.0 percent shooting.
The Pick
Getting off to a better start is vital, and that’s more likely at home before a raucous sellout crowd. In all three losses to the Suns, the Pelicans have trailed by double digits at halftime: By 19, 11 and 13 points.
The Suns have led at intermission in every game but the margins in Phoenix’s Game 2 and 4 losses were five and two points, respectively.
New Orleans already has won two do-or-die games this month and is 7-1 ATS in its past eight after a loss. The Pels extend the series and cover our NBA pick … unless Devin Booker returns.
Score Prediction: Pelicans 114, Suns 112
NBA Pick: Pelicans +1.5 (-110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.