The Milwaukee Bucks are one home win away from their first NBA championship since 1971. The Bucks are 9-1 at home this postseason. Can the Suns avoid their first four-game losing streak of the season and muster one more road win after being the best road team all year?
Tuesday, July 20, 2021 – 09:00 PM EDT at Fiserv Forum
The Bucks are a 5-point home favorite at many top sportsbooks. Milwaukee can become only the fifth team to win the NBA Finals after trailing 2-0. The Bucks would be the first team to win four straight after falling behind 2-0 since the 2006 Heat did it to the Mavericks, and the first since the 1977 Trail Blazers (against Philadelphia) to do it in the old format for venue – Miami played Games 3-5 at home in 2006.
Phoenix looks frustrated and has lost three straight games in regulation for the first time this season. The team that wins Game 5 of the Finals in a 2-2 series goes on to win that series 72% of the time. The NBA odds (and home court) are in Milwaukee’s favor now, but Game 6 could be a classic.
After the first quarter of Game 5, the Suns looked ready to run away with the game, building a 37-21 lead in front of a raucous home crowd. The Suns made 14-of-19 shots (73.7%) in that quarter. But a funny thing happened in the second quarter: Milwaukee rallied with Giannis Antetokounmpo on the bench. The Bucks ended up leading 64-61 at halftime in a remarkable turnaround.
Milwaukee, shooting over 70% in both the second and third quarters, continued to control play and led 100-90 going into the fourth. Devin Booker (40 points) and Chris Paul (21 points and 11 assists) led a late rally and found themselves with possession of the ball in the final seconds, trailing 120-119.
Booker, who had gone over 40 points for the second game in a row, was looking to be the hero for Phoenix, but Jrue Holiday made a great play to trap him and force a steal. The Bucks went for an ill-advised alley-oop pass to Giannis instead of burning the clock, but Giannis dunked the ball and was fouled. He missed the free throw, but the Bucks rebounded and Khris Middleton was able to sink another free throw to make it 123-119, the final score.
For a change, the Bucks were able to get all three of their best players playing well together. Giannis finished with 32 points but was actually a minus-7 in the box score. Middleton shot well again and had 29 points, seven rebounds, and five assists. Holiday had perhaps his best game of the playoffs with 27 points, 13 assists, and the masterful defense on Booker late. It was the second game in a row where a Phoenix guard critically turned the ball over late with Paul doing it in Game 4.
The Suns can really kick themselves again for losing this one after such a strong start. Phoenix shot 55.2% from the field and lost at home, which has not happened to a team in the NBA playoffs since the 2006 Lakers in Game 6 against Phoenix. In the NBA this season, home teams are 85-6 (.934) when shooting at least 55%. The Suns were 10-0 this season when shooting at least 55.0%.
Worse, Phoenix was 13-of-19 from three (68.4%), the highest 3P% any NBA team has had in a game in the last two seasons. That will certainly go down in Game 6. Phoenix was 20-0 this season when shooting at least 45% from three before this loss. Phoenix was also 11-0 this postseason when scoring at least 104 points, but Milwaukee snapped that streak too with the 123-119 win in Game 5. The problem, of course, was that Milwaukee was not missing against this defense. The Bucks shot 57.5%, the second-best game against the Suns this year. The Bucks also made half of their 28 threes.
This comes on the heels of a Game 4 where the Suns shot 11.1 percentage points better from the field and lost. NBA teams were 171-1 this season when outshooting opponents by at least 11 percentage points. The Suns were 29-0 when outshooting opponents by at least six percentage points. The Suns also lost that game by six points, something that had not happened in a playoff game with that shooting percentage disparity since 1992.
It just seems like the Suns have no answers left for Milwaukee, which has found its groove with Giannis playing so well and the contributions from Middleton and Holiday. The Bucks are now 14-1 this postseason when Middleton shoots at least 42% from the field. He has only been under 42% at home once this postseason.
While Paul had one turnover in the box score in Game 5, he had several bad passes that led teammates out of bounds and into turnovers. His hand may be bothering him more than we know as he just has not looked right the last few games. How much better can Booker really play after back-to-back 40-point games in losses? Then again, the Suns did stop winning this series once he started playing as only a scorer and getting into foul trouble.
Booker had six assists in each of Games 1 and 2 but only seven total in the last three games. The Suns are 3-7 this postseason when allowing more than 105 points and 11-0 when they do not. Milwaukee, the highest-scoring NBA team in decades, has been the only team to score 120 points on them, doing so in Games 3 and 5.
There are not many series in NBA playoff history where the home team in Game 6 is trying to close things out with a fourth straight win. This is the 20th one on record, and so far, that team is 10-9 in Game 6, or basically a coin flip. On the season, Phoenix has been a fantastic spread bet. The Suns have the best spread record in games following a loss (18-9), as a road underdog (10-5), and when playing on equal rest (63.0%).
Between the caliber of the team and the hopes of seeing this reach a Game 7, it would certainly be understandable to back the Suns in this one. But for my NBA picks, I am going to trust my gut that the Bucks have figured Phoenix out and will ride this great Giannis story to a championship win and cover in front of the home crowd on Tuesday night.
NBA Pick: Bucks -5 (-110) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
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