Bucks 1st Half -3
Suns vs. Bucks NBA Finals Game 3 Picks and Betting Analysis (Archive)
The Suns powered through two wins in Phoenix and now as the series shifts to Milwaukee, what can we expect from the Bucks? Will they bounce back and make it a series, or will Phoenix take a commanding 3-0 series lead?
Phoenix Suns vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Sunday, July 11, 2021 – 08:00 PM EDT at Fiserv Forum
Giannis Shines While the Rest Crumble
Coming into this series, the main topic of conversation around Milwaukee was the health of Giannis Antetokounmpo. He looked to have suffered a playoff-ending knee injury in the Eastern Conference Finals, but after a solid Game 1, the Greek Freak put up a playoff performance for the ages in Game 2. Antetokounmpo looked healthy and as dominant as ever in route to a 40-point game. However, the rest of his Bucks teammates didn’t seem to get the message. The rest of Milwaukee combined for 27-for-71 (38%) from the floor and they were beaten by double figures once again.
Now that the series shifts back to Milwaukee in front of that crazy home crowd, it’s now or never for the Bucks. They cannot and will not win this series down 0-3. Even though it’s not impossible, they will need some better performances from their other supporting stars, as well as their supporting cast if they want to protect home court.
Luckily for the Bucks, I think it can happen in Game 3. Khris Middleton and Jrue Holiday won’t combine to shoot 12-for-37 again and the rest of the role players for Milwaukee should play better at home, as they usually do. It’s that simple for this Bucks team and I think if they can bounce back and get another huge performance from Giannis, they will be in line to win and/or cover Game 3.
The Sharp Pick
Jimmy Boyd of Boyd’s Bets did a great ATS analysis a few years back on handicapping teams who were up 2-0 in a playoff series. The main takeaway I took from it and generally handicapping the NBA for more than a decade, is that the Suns are due for a letdown. Teams that have a 2-0 series lead are only covering about 44 percent of the time in Game 3 and that is one of the reasons why the NBA Odds makers have the Bucks as -4 favorites at home.
While I don’t know if they will win or cover, I do think the Bucks are due to come out hot. During these playoffs at home, the Bucks have been a different team. They are allowing 13 fewer points per 100 possessions in their home playoff games and in the first halves of those home games, they have a net rating of +22.8 points per 100 possessions.
Simply put, if the Bucks don’t cover the first half here, I fear they will go down 0-3. The Suns are too good to keep letting them build a lead and having to claw back into the game. Milwaukee will need to lead for all four quarters of they want to win Game 3 and I think they will do that for at least the first two. Considering how good the Bucks have been in the first halves of their home games, I think the first half spread is the play here. If you can find a -2.5 I would take it, but otherwise I’m laying -3 with the Bucks for my MLB Picks here in Game 3.
NBA Pick: Bucks 1st Half -3 at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.