The San Antonio Spurs (33-39) look to pull off the play-in tournament’s first upset as they take on the Memphis Grizzlies (38-34) on Wednesday night. The Grizzlies took two of the three meetings in the regular season, but these teams have not met since the beginning of February.
Wednesday, May 19, 2021 – 07:30 PM EDT at FedExForum
The Grizzlies are a 4-point favorite at many top sportsbooks with NBA action. Memphis had a five-game winning streak before losing to the Warriors in the final game of the regular season. San Antonio has lost four in a row, but the team faced stiff competition in the form of the Nets, Knicks, and Suns (once with starters). San Antonio’s last win was a 146-125 trouncing of a full-strength Milwaukee team, so you never know what can happen on any given night in the NBA.
These teams met in the very first game of the season back on December 23, a 131-119 win by the Spurs. Memphis played the Spurs to roughly a draw in three of the quarters, but the Spurs ran away with the game in the second quarter, outscoring Memphis 36-20. DeMar DeRozan led the way with 28 points, nine rebounds, and nine assists. The teams then met again in San Antonio in back-to-back games as the calendar turned to February. In Game 2 of the season series, this time a passive DeRozan scored a season-low five points as the Spurs fell 129-112. Two days later, San Antonio shot even worse as a team (41.6%) and lost 133-102.
Memphis had balanced scoring in both wins with no starter hitting 20 points. That is indicative of the team’s season as Ja Morant led the team in scoring at 19.1 points per game. Memphis, which ranks 15th in Offensive Rating, is not a poor offense, but it is one that will rarely post big scoring numbers. Morant actually had a season-high 44 points against the Spurs in the first game of the season. The Grizzlies have three players who average more than 17 points per game this season.
San Antonio’s biggest problem against Memphis was on defense. The Grizzlies shot 51.6% or better in all three meetings with the Spurs, including two of the team’s six best games this season. Memphis never scored fewer than 119 points against the Spurs, who are 4-21 this season when allowing at least 119 points.
Given this is the No. 9 vs. No. 10 seed, neither team had a great season, but the Grizzlies were the better team. Memphis finished No. 7 in Defensive Rating, No. 11 in rebound percentage, and No. 14 in Net Rating. The Spurs were below average on both sides of the court and only 24th in rebound percentage, failing to win the rebound battle 50 times this year. The Spurs also finished 27th in eFG%, so shot-making ability is not a strength with this team. San Antonio scores a league-high 57.5% of its points on two-point shots.
The Grizzlies are also not big on the three-point shot, but Memphis led the league in fast break points and score an NBA-high 49.3% of its points in the paint. The Spurs allow 50.1 points in the paint per game, the fifth-highest average in the league. The Spurs limp into this one with a 2-8 record in May. Memphis is 6-4 over the last 10 games, but only 1-4 ATS in its last five.
In the regular season, the Grizzlies finished with the third-best spread record (42-30). However, the Spurs are an impressive 14-8-1 ATS as a road underdog. San Antonio protects the ball well, DeRozan is a reliable scorer, and Gregg Popovich is obviously no stranger to coaching big games. This will be 36-year-old Memphis coach Taylor Jenkins’ first “playoff game” as an NBA head coach. The Spurs have enough ingredients to give us the first close game of this play-in tournament, but for my NBA picks, I am going to trust the better team on both sides of the court from Memphis to cover the spread.
NBA Pick: Grizzlies -4 (-110) at Bovada