Spurs vs. Clippers NBA Preview and Best Bet (Archive)
If Jakob Poeltl doesn’t play, the Los Angeles Clippers are the savvy NBA pick for Tuesday’s matchup with the San Antonio Spurs.
San Antonio Spurs vs. Los Angeles Clippers
Tuesday, November 16, 2021- 10:30 PM EST at Staples Center
Smart handicappers are making a mint off the coronavirus. The haphazard way players are coming on and off the COVID-19 list has created a golden opportunity for bettors across all sports to take advantage of the market – provided you stay on top of things (cough cough Aaron Rodgers oops cough).
Take Tuesday’s matchup between the Los Angeles Clippers and San Antonio Spurs, for example. Jakob Poeltl might play for the Spurs, or he might not, depending on whether he’s cleared in time. Whether Poeltl suits up makes a difference here.
The Clippers have opened as 6.5-point home favorites on the NBA odds board at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review); that closely matches the projections we’re seeing here at the ranch, which we presume were built with Poeltl at least partially factored in. His impact on the Spurs is plenty big enough that we’re compelled to put L.A. in Tuesday’s NBA picks if he’s not involved.
Jakob’s Ladder
We’ve mentioned a few times that it’s a good idea to bet on teams that are missing superstar players, expecting the public to over-react and push the lines too far. Poeltl (plus-0.1 BPM) is not one of those players. He’s toiled in relative obscurity ever since he arrived in San Antonio alongside DeMar DeRozan in the Kawhi Leonard trade.
Now that DeRozan is in Chicago, Poeltl is one of the very best players the Spurs (4-9 SU, 7-6 ATS) have left. Among their regular rotation, only Thaddeus Young (plus-3.8 BPM) and Dejounte Murray (plus-2.3 BPM) have put up better Box Plus/Minus numbers at Basketball-Reference. Poeltl has missed each of the last six games for San Antonio; they went 2-4 SU and 3-3 ATS, but with almost no other big men left available, they’ve also dropped three of their last four.
(You Gotta Have) Hartenstein
There is a good chance that Poeltl plays, though. He’s already completed his 10-day quarantine, and he did make the trip to Los Angeles, although Poeltl didn’t suit up against the Los Angeles Lakers, who beat San Antonio 114-106 as 2-point favorites on the NBA lines.
The issue is his conditioning, and as a traditional 7-foot-1 center, it’s a big issue. Even if Poeltl does take part, he’s likely to be rusty for at least a game or two. The Clippers (8-5 SU, 7-6 ATS) might not have Leonard at all this year, and Serge Ibaka has his own conditioning issues to iron out, but they’re still in good shape to take advantage.
They’ve got two capable bigs in Ivica Zubac (plus-0.6 BPM) and Isaiah Hartenstein (plus-1.3 BPM), the latter an absolute steal as a free agent in late September. They’ve also got the best player on the floor in Paul George (plus-4.5 BPM), and after a slow start, the Clippers have won seven of their last eight at 5-3 ATS. We’ll buy that for a dollar if Poeltl doesn’t play, and a half-dollar if he does.
NBA Pick: Clippers –6.5 (–110) with BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.